Regarding Trump's visit to China this time, I think: it's highly likely that something can be negotiated, but it's difficult to achieve significant relaxation on high-end AI chips. First of all, this is not an ordinary meeting, but a formal state visit. Since both sides have raised the level of formality to this extent, it indicates that there must have been considerable communication beforehand. It's unlikely that it will end with just a handshake, a photo, a few polite remarks, and then everyone goes home. Moreover, Chinese culture is "Is it not a joy to have friends come from afar?". Since the guest has come, especially the world's leading power, the United States, China must make the occasion very dignified. China is willing to give face and show goodwill. But the prerequisite is...

So, if we take the current Middle East conflict as a real-world case study, what do we see? If we treat this ongoing conflict as a real-world sample, it becomes clearer how someone like Trump operates in such a situation. According to public reports from March 24th to March 25th, the military actions by the United States and Israel against Iran have been ongoing for nearly four weeks. On one hand, Trump publicly claims that the US is "talking progress" with Iran and confirms that Washington has delivered a 15-point proposal to Iran; on the other hand, Iran denies the existence of direct negotiations between the two sides, the hostilities themselves have not ceased, and the US is still preparing to deploy additional troops to the Middle East...

这几天，影响市场的核心变量基本都绕不开中东局势。而在这场冲突里，真正能左右节奏的人物之一，显然还是特朗普。与其在这种阶段硬做交易，不如静下心来重新翻一遍《交易的艺术》，想一想：这个决定局势方向的人，通常会把事情往哪里推。这几天我又把《交易的艺术》看了一遍，也认真琢磨了一下。单从阅读体验来说，这本书确实有点像流水账：今天跟谁打电话，明天跟谁吃饭...