--- title: "Tariff chaos doesn't hinder \"bomb\" guidance, TSMC remains unfazed?" type: "Topics" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/dolphin/post/28998340.md" description: "TSMC (TSMC) released its Q1 2025 earnings report (as of March 2025) during US pre-market hours on April 17, 2025 Beijing time. Key points: 1. Revenue: Remained solid. In Q1 2025, $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) achieved revenue of $25.5 billion, within the guidance range ($25.0-$25.8 billion). Quarterly revenue declined 5% sequentially, with shipment volume contributing -4.7% and average selling price -0.4%. The sequential drop was affected by seasonal factors and earthquake damage..." datetime: "2025-04-17T11:25:24.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/dolphin/post/28998340.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/dolphin/post/28998340.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/dolphin/post/28998340.md) author: "[Dolphin Research](https://longbridge.com/en/dolphin.md)" generator: "portal-rs" --- # Tariff chaos doesn't hinder "bomb" guidance, TSMC remains unfazed? TSMC (TSMC) released its Q1 2025 earnings report (as of March 2025) during the US pre-market session on April 17, 2025, Beijing time. Key highlights: **1\. Revenue: Remains solid.** $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) **reported revenue of $25.5 billion, in line with guidance ($25-25.8 billion).** Quarterly revenue declined 5% sequentially, **with shipment volume contributing -4.7% and average selling price (ASP) contributing -0.4%.** The sequential decline was impacted by seasonal factors and earthquake disruptions, but ASP remained strong at over $7,800 per wafer. **2\. Gross profit & margin: Maintained at high levels.** TSMC's Q1 2025 gross margin was 58.8%, near the upper end of guidance (57-59%). Despite slight sequential margin pressure from smartphone seasonality and lower 3nm contribution, margins stayed robust. **3\. Wafer mix: Strong demand for advanced nodes.** Smartphones and high-performance computing (HPC) accounted for 87% of revenue combined. While smartphone revenue dipped seasonally, AI demand remained strong, driving HPC's share to 59% of total revenue. Advanced nodes (7nm and below) maintained over 70% share. **North America's revenue share rose to 77%, driven by HPC clients.** **4\. Guidance:** **Q2 2025 revenue is projected at $28.4-29.2 billion (vs. consensus $27.2 billion) with gross margin of 57-59% (consensus 58.2%). The 11.4-14.5% sequential growth is fueled by Apple's iPhone 16e and AI demand, while margins stabilize.** **Dolphin Research's take: Solid numbers, but "hardcore guidance" is the real confidence booster.** TSMC's Q1 revenue and margins were healthy **despite earthquake disruptions affecting ~$1 billion in output. Without this impact, revenue would have exceeded guidance.** Near-59% margins were supported by AI demand and advanced node utilization. Guidance stole the spotlight—double-digit sequential growth signals confidence. Dolphin Research attributes this to iPhone 16e and HPC demand. **Maintaining full-year revenue growth (25%) and capex ($38-42 billion) targets further underscores management's confidence.** Amid tariff concerns, TSMC's guidance acts as a "stabilizer." **Unlike ASML's recent weakness, TSMC's outlook is a bedrock of stability.** Key differentiators: **1) Business mix:** AI drives semiconductor growth. **TSMC's HPC (60% share) directly captures this via chipmaking, while ASML indirectly benefits through equipment sales.** **2) Client base:** TSMC serves AI chip leaders like NVIDIA, AMD, and Broadcom. **Beyond 5-7nm AI opportunities, it gains from Cowos packaging and Windows+ARM transitions, taking share from Samsung/Intel.** **ASML faces mixed demand—TSMC/SK Hynix are ramping capex, while Intel/Samsung cut back.** **3) US expansion:** TSMC's $100 billion US fab investment alleviates tariff concerns by boosting local production. **TSMC's fundamentals clearly outshine ASML's, justifying its bold guidance. Additional demand from Qualcomm and Intel's outsourcing could further boost growth. With unmatched industry leverage, TSMC offers rare certainty.** **Dolphin Research notes an intriguing angle: TSMC's early $100 billion US commitment (potentially aiding Intel) reflects unshakable confidence—unlike NVIDIA's recent $5.5 billion inventory hit from H20 licensing issues and reactive $500 billion AI investment pledge post-US demands.** **Speculation: TSMC may emerge as the tariff war's steadiest player.** For management's capacity/tariff views, stay tuned for Dolphin Research's earnings call notes. **Detailed analysis:** **1\. Revenue:** Q1 revenue of $25.53 billion met guidance ($25-25.8 billion). The 5% sequential drop reflected seasonality and earthquake disruptions (~$1 billion impact). **Without earthquakes, revenue would have exceeded guidance.** **Volume/price breakdown:** **1) Volume:** Wafer shipments fell 4.7% QoQ to 3,259K (12-inch equivalent), mainly from smartphone seasonality. **Capex of $10.06 billion (above historical Q1 levels) and reiterated $38-42 billion full-year target (+30% YoY) signal strong AI/semiconductor demand recovery.** **2) Price:** ASP dipped 0.4% to $7,834/wafer due to lower 3nm mix but stayed elevated on price hikes and AI demand. **Q2 guidance of $28.4-29.2 billion (+11.4-14.5% QoQ) reflects iPhone 16e and AI momentum, with advanced nodes at full capacity.** **2\. Gross margin:** Q1 gross profit fell 5.4% to $15 billion, with margin down 0.2ppt to 58.8% (above consensus 58.1%). **Despite 3nm/earthquake impacts, near-59% margins were impressive, supported by AI demand and advanced node utilization.** **Margin drivers (per wafer):** **1) Revenue:** $7,834 (-$31 QoQ) remained high. **2) Fixed costs (depreciation):** $1,635 (+$92 QoQ) rose with capex. **3) Variable costs:** $1,594 (-$88 QoQ) improved with utilization. **Gross profit/wafer dipped $34 to $4,605, mainly from ASP, with costs offsetting.** **Q2 margin guidance of 57-59% reflects sustained advanced node demand.** **3\. Wafer mix:** **3.1 By application:** Smartphones (28%) and HPC (59%) drove 87% of revenue. **Q2 growth will rely on iPhone 16e and AI.** **3.2 By node:** 7nm and below held 73% share (3nm: 22%; 5nm: 36%). **Earthquakes temporarily disrupted advanced nodes, but AI demand keeps utilization high.** Qualcomm/Intel outsourcing could further boost demand. **3.3 By region:** North America (77% share) dominates with Apple/NVIDIA/AMD. **US fab expansion ($100 billion) will localize production, mitigating tariff risks.** \ Dolphin Research's TSMC coverage: ## **TSMC** Jan 16, 2025 call: [TSMC: 2025 Capex Raised to $38-42B (24Q4 Call)](https://longportapp.cn/zh-CN/topics/26647770) Jan 16, 2025 report: [TSMC: Is the "Anchor" Invincible?](https://longportapp.cn/zh-CN/topics/26646538) ... **Disclosures:** [**Dolphin Research Disclaimer**](https://support.longbridge.global/topics/misc/dolphin-disclaimer) ### Related Stocks - [TSM.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSM.US.md) --- > **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**