---
title: "MRVL: Growth Lags NVDA; Rich Valuation Facing Multiple Compression?"
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/dolphin/post/43643427.md"
description: "MRVL released its FY2027 Q2 results after hours on Aug 28 Beijing time (quarter ended Jul 2026).It raised its FY2027 revenue outlook to $12bn (prior $11.5bn), up 45% YoY.Guidance for FY2028 was lifted to $18bn (prior $16.5bn), up 50% YoY, with data center rev. expected to grow 60%+ (vs. NVDA's next-year outlook of 70%+)..."
datetime: "2026-08-28T02:28:19.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/dolphin/post/43643427.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/dolphin/post/43643427.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/dolphin/post/43643427.md)
author: "[Dolphin Research](https://longbridge.com/en/dolphin.md)"
generator: "portal-rs"
---

# MRVL: Growth Lags NVDA; Rich Valuation Facing Multiple Compression?

Marvell (MRVL.O) released FY27 Q2 results (quarter ended Jul 2026) after hours on Aug 28 Beijing time.

**1\. Full-year outlook: FY27 revenue raised to $12.0bn (vs. prior guide $11.5bn), +45% YoY.** **FY28 revenue raised to $18.0bn (vs. prior $16.5bn), +50% YoY,** with **Data Center up 60%+ (vs. NVIDIA's 70%+ next-year outlook)** and custom ASIC revenue still expected to more than double.

**Beyond near-term prints, investors care most about the growth trajectory.** Management provided top-line outlooks for the next two fiscal years during the post-print call.

**Ahead of the print, the sell side broadly expected** $Marvell Tech(MRVL.US) **FY27/FY28 revenue of ~$11.8bn and $17.0–17.5bn.** The new guides are only slightly above those estimates. Versus yesterday's major beat-and-raise from NVIDIA, Marvell's outlook looks notably underwhelming.

**The recent Google agreement stoked hopes for custom ASIC wins (incl. TPU share gains).** However, management did not lift custom ASIC guidance this time (no update for this fiscal year, FY28 still 'more than double'), which may read as a 'pay-to-play' framework rather than revenue-backed commitments.

**2\. Data Center: revenue was $2.17bn, +19% QoQ,** driven mainly by **interconnect products,** with Data Center at 79% mix.

Within Data Center, interconnect remains the core driver, which is consensus. **Relative to interconnect, the Street is more focused on custom ASIC performance, especially post the Google deal.**

Today, Marvell's custom ASIC business is concentrated on Amazon's Trainium family. **That business has underperformed given competition from Alchip,** lagging Amazon's capex growth trajectory.

**Shares spiked 10%+ when the Google deal was announced, largely on expected TPU-related upside (vs. Broadcom).** But management did not raise ASIC guidance later; it did not reiterate this year's 20%+ target from last quarter, and kept next year's 'doubling' call. That leaves a question mark on whether Google can deliver incremental ASIC/TPU orders.

**3\. Operating metrics: revenue was $2.74bn, +13% QoQ,** in line with consensus (~$2.75bn). The $0.3bn sequential uplift came entirely from Data Center.

GPM was 53.1%, up 100bps QoQ. GAAP gross margin is affected by acquisition-related amortization and does not fully reflect underlying operations. **On an adjusted basis, we estimate GPM at 58.3%, flat QoQ.** If lower-margin custom ASIC scales faster, GPM could face pressure.

**4\. Next-quarter guide: revenue of $3.15bn, a touch above Street (~$3.10bn).** Implying Q4 revenue around $3.7bn, both quarters growing ~15–20% QoQ, led by interconnect demand. **GAAP GPM guided at 52.9%–53.9%. With multi-year guides now provided, the quarterly guide matters less.**

**For the full call memo, see '**[**Marvell (Trans): No ASIC guide hike; Data Center growth 60%+ next year**](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/dolphin/post/43641329)**'.**

**Dolphin Research view: 'Pay-to-play' tie-up, outlook underwhelms**

**The print broadly met expectations,** with growth almost entirely from Data Center interconnect. **Adjusted GPM was 58.3%, flat QoQ,** after stripping amortization and related impacts.

From this fiscal year, Marvell condensed disclosure from five segments to two (Data Center; Carrier & Other). **Data Center was the main growth engine this quarter, +19% QoQ, driven by interconnect demand.**

With full-year guidance in hand, the next-quarter guide is de-emphasized. **We infer the next two quarters at roughly $3.15bn and $3.7bn, both up ~15–20% QoQ,** again led by interconnect.

More importantly, management provided two-year revenue targets. **FY27/FY28 are guided to $12.0bn/$18.0bn (vs. prior $11.5bn/$16.5bn), while the Street was already at ~$11.8bn/$17.0–17.5bn pre-print.** **Against NVIDIA's 'blowout' guide yesterday, Marvell's looks soft.**

**Dolphin Research sees two main reasons for the after-hours selloff: (i) despite the Google tie-up, Marvell did not raise custom ASIC guidance,** making the agreement appear more 'pay-to-play'; **(ii) Data Center growth for FY28 is 60%+, while NVIDIA, at a much larger base, guided 70%+ for next year.**

Key focus areas beyond the headline numbers:

**1) ASIC**

**Marvell recently announced its Google collaboration:** it plans to issue warrants for 58.97mn shares to Google, granted on Aug 18, 2026, with a strike of $206.58.

Two parts: **(i) an immediate grant of 1.36mn shares,** vesting 0.34mn at 3/6/9/12 months; **(ii) 57.61mn performance-based shares (240 tranches), starting Aug 1, 2026, with one tranche (~0.24mn) vesting for each $500mn of eligible revenue.**

**'Eligible revenue' covers Google's custom ASIC chips,** including AI inference accelerators, storage controllers, NICs, memory interface controllers, and near-memory compute.

The structure shows Marvell negotiating from a weaker position. **The goal is clear: secure Google's custom ASIC orders, while offering warrants upfront as a gesture,** broadly mirroring the prior arrangement with Amazon.

**2) Networking and interconnect**

Acquisitions of XConn (PCIe/CXL switching), Celestial AI (photonic interconnect), and Polariton (electro-optic modulators) **give Marvell a complete AI networking stack across Scale-Out, Scale-Up, and Scale-Across,** offering high-speed interconnect from in-rack to inter-DC.

**In today's Scale-Out optical landscape, pluggable optics remain dominant.** NVIDIA, Google and others mainly use pluggables, and Marvell's PAM4 DSP is relatively leading in this market. **Management previously said its 1.6T solutions have begun volume production and will ramp quickly in FY27,** a key interconnect growth driver.

**3) CXL memory expansion/pooling (Structera):** AI inference demands massive KV cache. HBM is expensive and DRAM capacity is limited, so NAND/SCM-based expansion is attractive.

Marvell's CXL lineup includes **Structera A, Structera X, and Structera S,** serving as near-storage accelerators, memory expansion controllers, and memory pooling/switching, respectively.

With a current market cap of ~$211.1bn, **Marvell trades at roughly ~40x FY28 adj. net income,** assuming revenue CAGR ~53%, adj. GPM 57.5%, and adj. tax rate 12.5%.

Some major brokers now anchor valuation on FY29, reflecting a focus on long-term growth. Given uncertainty further out, **Dolphin Research references FY28 (roughly CY27).**

**Versus NVIDIA (14–15x PE) and Broadcom (19x PE), Marvell screens expensive,** embedding expectations for AI share gains and strong interconnect growth. **Yet its FY28 Data Center growth of 60%+ trails NVIDIA's 70%+ next-year guide,** which is unlikely to satisfy the market.

**Part of the recent share rally reflected the Google deal.** Judging by both the Google and Amazon agreements, Marvell appears to be negotiating from a weaker hand. **The unchanged ASIC guide makes the deal look more like a 'gift' than a revenue-backed contract.**

**Net-net, the quarter was fine, and the after-hours selloff stems from an underwhelming outlook.** With investors focused on forward growth, recent developments such as open-source model momentum and Anthropic ARR slope moderation could amplify volatility.

The AI chip field has few players, and Marvell is a rare US-based ASIC partner to multiple hyperscalers. Broadcom, buoyed by Google's TPU, reached a ~$2tn market cap at peak, while Marvell sits near $200bn. **If Marvell captures 10–20% of TPU share, it could add several billion dollars of annual revenue (vs. current custom ASIC at ~ $2bn),** which underpins the bull case.

**On the unchanged ASIC guide, management added it will elaborate with scenarios at the Oct 6 Analyst Day.** Watch for specifics then.

**The full-year outlook is not great, but Marvell has 'paid up' with both Amazon and Google, keeping optionality for future orders.** Near term, the stock could correct given a rich ~40x PE, yet '50%+ growth over the next two years + visible growth drivers' should support a premium multiple (30x+). For those betting on potential share wins, pullbacks could offer better entry.

Dolphin Research on Marvell (MRVL.O) results and details:

**Note: 'Adjusted' operating metrics include SBC, but mainly strip amortization and similar items to better reflect underlying performance.**

\<End>

Dolphin Research's prior pieces on Marvell (MRVL.O):

Hot topics:

Aug 20, 2026: [Marvell: 'Pay-to-play' tie-up with Google — can it pry share from Broadcom?](https://longportapp.cn/zh-CN/topics/43507754)

Earnings:

May 28, 2026 call memo: [Marvell (Trans): FY28 $16.5bn guide could still move higher](https://longportapp.cn/zh-CN/topics/41197136)

May 28, 2026 note: [Marvell: In the AI inference era, is interconnect more valuable than compute?](https://longportapp.cn/zh-CN/topics/41191713)

Mar 6, 2026 call memo: [Marvell (Trans): Raising revenue again; a second XPU to ramp in FY28](https://longportapp.cn/zh-CN/topics/39099470)

Mar 6, 2026 note: [Marvell: ASIC card miss, winning back AI via interconnect](https://longportapp.cn/zh-CN/topics/39096551)

Dec 3, 2025 call memo: [Marvell (Trans): AWS becomes Celestial AI's lead customer](https://longportapp.cn/zh-CN/topics/36868576)

Dec 3, 2025 note: [Marvell: Filling product gaps via M&A — a faster path to 'NVIDIA-lite'?](https://longportapp.cn/zh-CN/topics/36866810)

Aug 29, 2025 call memo: [Marvell (Trans): Still no direct response to Alchip's challenge](https://longportapp.cn/zh-CN/topics/33459106)

Aug 29, 2025 note: [Marvell: Cloud capex was generous — why didn't ASIC benefit?](https://longportapp.cn/zh-CN/topics/33455225)

May 30, 2025 call memo: [Marvell (Trans): AI to become half of total revenue](https://longportapp.cn/zh-CN/topics/30189065)

May 30, 2025 note: [Marvell: AI sequential growth stalled — where is the next trump card?](https://longportapp.cn/zh-CN/topics/30184584)

Mar 6, 2025 call memo: [Marvell (Trans): Data Center growth collapsed](https://longportapp.cn/zh-CN/topics/27852608)

Mar 6, 2025 note: [Marvell: Pouring cold water on AI again — ASIC flashing warning signs](https://longportapp.cn/zh-CN/topics/27847825)

Deep dives:

Jan 14, 2025: [ASIC battle royale — can Marvell beat Broadcom?](https://longportapp.cn/zh-CN/topics/26604690)

Jan 2, 2025: [Marvell vs. the trillion-dollar Broadcom — can ASIC ignite a comeback?](https://longportapp.cn/zh-CN/topics/26395071)

Risk disclosure and disclaimer: [Dolphin Research disclaimer and general disclosures](https://support.longbridge.global/topics/misc/dolphin-disclaimer)

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> **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**