--- title: "NIO (Trans): GPM held at 18.5%, Q4 monthly deliveries topped 40k" type: "Topics" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/dolphin/post/43700709.md" description: "Q2 deliveries reached 107,658 units, with vehicle-level GPM at 18.5%, and non-GAAP profitability for a third straight quarter. Per-unit cost has risen by approx. RMB 14,000 vs. Q4 last year, and is set to increase a further RMB 2,000–3,000 in H2. The company only guides GPM to be flat in Q3 and Q4, while targeting average monthly deliveries of 40,000+ units in Q4." datetime: "2026-09-01T14:08:11.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/dolphin/post/43700709.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/dolphin/post/43700709.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/dolphin/post/43700709.md) author: "[Dolphin Research](https://longbridge.com/en/dolphin.md)" generator: "portal-rs" --- # NIO (Trans): GPM held at 18.5%, Q4 monthly deliveries topped 40k **Below is Dolphin Research's summarized transcript.** $NIO Inc(NIO.US) **FY26Q2 earnings call notes.** **I. Key takeaways from the results** 1\. **Volume guidance**: Q3 deliveries guided at 108,000–111,000 units. July and Aug. deliveries were 35,934 and 35,836 units, respectively.Q4 target is monthly deliveries above 40,000 units. Mid- to long-term annual volume growth is guided at 40%–50%. 2\. **Key financials this quarter** a. Total: revenue of RMB 32.1bn (+69.1% YoY, +25.9% QoQ). Total GPM was 18.4% vs. 9.7% a year ago and 16.3% in Q1.b. By segment: vehicle sales of RMB 29.1bn (+80.1% YoY, +27.5% QoQ), with vehicle GPM at 18.5% (vs. 12.2% a year ago and 17.6% in Q1). Other sales were RMB 3.1bn (+7.2% YoY), with GPM at 17%.c. Profitability: operating loss of RMB 300mn (-92.9% YoY), with non-GAAP OP of RMB 200mn. Net loss was RMB 500mn (-89.4% YoY), with non-GAAP net income of RMB 26.1mn.d. Cash: both operating cash flow and FCF were positive. Cash reserves rose to RMB 56.7bn, and management expects positive OCf and FCF in Q3 and Q4. 3\. **Cost pressure and GPM target** a. Per-unit cost in Q2 rose Approx. RMB 14,000 vs. the Avg. of Q4 last year, driven by memory chips, batteries and commodities. Management expects a further RMB 2,000–3,000 increase in H2.b. Cumulatively, H2 vs. Q4 last year implies RMB 16,000–17,000 per unit of added pressure. The company targets vehicle GPM of around 18.5% in Q3 and Q4, with steady growth in GP in absolute terms. 4\. **Opex and CapEx guidance** a. R&D: non-GAAP at Approx. RMB 2.5bn per quarter, roughly flat for the year. Spending is adjusted dynamically by project cadence.b. S&M: on a non-GAAP basis, H1 S&M was about 13% of revenue. Q2 included Approx. RMB 500mn one-offs related to new launches; H2 is expected to fall to 10%–11%.c. CapEx: full-year at Approx. RMB 6.0–7.0bn, roughly flat YoY, mainly for product R&D and sales/service network. An additional 1,000 swap stations will be fully funded by partners.d. Battery assets: receivables due from Nio Power (WeNeng) fell from over RMB 16.0bn at the start of the year to under RMB 15.0bn by end-Q2. **II. Earnings call details** **2.1 Management highlights** 1\. Nio branda. Q2 deliveries were 60,945 units, ranking No.1 in the >RMB 350,000 passenger car market across all powertrains. b. On Jul. 9, the flagship SUV ES8 5-seat variant launched and began deliveries, expanding use cases with a 5-seat layout and larger cabin space.c. ES8 reached 140,000 cumulative deliveries in 335 days since launch. It leads the RMB 400,000 price band and the large SUV segment, and posted the highest NPS among BEVs in third-party surveys.d. The flagship executive SUV ES9 started deliveries in late May. It ranked No.1 in >RMB 500,000 passenger car sales in Jun. and Jul., and has begun winning users from traditional luxury ICE SUVs. 2\. ONVO branda. Q2 deliveries were 29,124 units. L90 topped 60,000 deliveries in its first year and ranked No.1 among large BEV SUVs around RMB 300,000.b. L80 earned a strong reputation for cargo space and scenario-based functionality. With L90 and L80, ONVO ranked No.1 in large SUVs priced below RMB 300,000 in Q2.c. The refreshed L60 is now better aligned with target users. 3\. Firefly branda. Q2 deliveries were 17,589 units. It has held the No.1 share in the premium small-car segment for 15 consecutive months. 4\. Intelligent drivinga. On Jun. 18, the latest WorldModel version was rolled out, covering over 700,000 Nio and ONVO users. It was the second major update this year.b. Post-upgrade, city pilot usage rose 92.8% among Nio users and 127.8% among ONVO users. c. Nio is the first in the industry to develop its AD system concurrently on both general-purpose and in-house chips, sharing the same software branch and release cadence. 5\. Sales, service and energy networka. The network includes 165 NIO House, 376 NIO Space, 441 ONVO stores, 420 service centers and 93 delivery centers. b. In J.D. Power's 2026 China NEV after-sales satisfaction study, Nio ranked No.1 among both luxury and China brands.c. Globally, there are 4,123 swap stations and 30,294 chargers and destination piles. On Aug. 7, the 4,000th swap station went live as the first Gen-5 site, compatible with all three brands' models and open to third parties.d. Based on scaled standard swap operations, the company is exploring value-added services such as power trading. 6\. Industry viewa. Management sees three shifts: BEVs have become mainstream. The industry is moving from fuzzy brands to clear brand positions, with brand weight rising in purchase decisions.b. Ultimately, competition is shifting from products to system capabilities. **2.2 Q&A** **Q: Can ES8 and ES9 orders sustain, given peers' high-end SUVs often fade after a few hot months?** A: **ES8 delivered 140,000 units in 11 months since launch, and ES9 has a 3–4 month lead time.** ES8 delivered 10,099 units in Aug., and demand remains strong. It will reach the 150,000 milestone in Sep., less than a year after launch.Management noted China's auto market iterates fast and few models sell well for long, but the new ES8 breaks that pattern. ES9 demand is also strong, especially the Horizon and Signature trims.While Jul. deliveries still reflected pre-launch orders, new orders in Aug. exceeded Jul. About three-quarters of ES9 buyers are new to Nio, showing broader reach. **Q: How do you differentiate in the high-end SUV market?** A: **Four pillars: technology, product definition, energy/service system and brand, with brand accounting for over 30% of decisions.** First, ES9 debuts numerous industry-first and leading technologies, with tech innovation as the core differentiator.Second, the product definition hits both business and family use for premium users, balancing emotional and functional needs. Third, the swap/charging network plus after-sales form a hard-to-replicate system capability.Nio ranked No.1 three times in third-party NEV after-sales satisfaction surveys, and has led in related J.D. Power studies for years. Fourth, as the industry moves to clear brand positions, users shift from spec-driven to brand-driven choices.In premium BEVs, Nio is perceived as the choice when replacing Mercedes, BMW and Audi. On an insurance basis, Nio brand ASP was RMB 406,000 in Q2 and over RMB 430,000 in Jul., above BBA and leading mainstream luxury brands. **Q: ONVO's lead conversion and order momentum seem weaker. How will incentives and sales strategy adjust, and what improvements are planned?** A: **The bottleneck is brand awareness, roughly where Nio was five to six years ago.** Management acknowledged ONVO faces many more brands and models in its segment than Nio and Firefly.Despite market pressure in H1, ONVO's ASP reached RMB 240,000 with notable YoY growth. Only eight brands in China achieved both volume and ASP growth in H1, and ONVO was one of them, with ASP above some traditional luxury brands.Conversion from self-generated leads to orders is healthy, indicating a recognition gap rather than product weakness. Three actions: expand awareness via partnerships, offline events and target-community ops; roll out Sky Stores that house Nio, ONVO and Firefly under one roof while expanding into lower-tier cities.Also, launch new ONVO products to cover broader families, while sticking to a high-quality family-brand position. It will avoid aggressive entry-level moves, balancing volume and vehicle GPM.Management sees a gap in China for a family brand comparable to the higher-end lines of Toyota and VW, which ONVO aims to fill. **Q: Key new models and refresh timelines for the three brands next year?** A: **Nio will launch the 5-series and 6-series, ONVO will debut a strategic model, and Firefly remains single-model.** Firefly follows an 'iPhone-style' iteration, adding special editions and tech upgrades rather than more nameplates.No specific launch months were provided. **Q: With memory costs rising, how do you view vehicle GPM over the next two quarters?** A: **Vehicle GPM target stays around 18.5%, with another RMB 2,000–3,000 cost increase.** Per-unit cost in Q2 was already up Approx. RMB 14,000 vs. Q4 last year, driven by memory chips, batteries and other commodities.Across the three brands, retail prices will remain stable, and the company will not chase volume with simple price cuts. Management will offset via supply chain optimization, design-to-cost and commercial negotiations.As a result, vehicle GPM held at 18.5% in Q2, and management aims to keep it at a similar level in Q3 and Q4. **Q: Profitability improved materially over the past year. Why is this structural rather than cyclical?** A: **H1 GPM rose 282% YoY, and ES8/ES9 vehicle GPM both exceeded 20%.** H1 deliveries rose 67% YoY and revenue rose 86% YoY, with revenue growing faster than volume and GP growing faster than revenue.First, competition has turned brand-driven, and ES8/ES9 demand is steady with strong segment shares. These models contribute most to mix and vehicle GPM, forming the earnings base.Second, cost structure optimization and sharper product definition have been underway for several quarters. Together with suppliers, Nio is driving R&D and supply chain to a finer granularity to keep finding cost-down opportunities.Third, even with cumulative H2 cost burden of RMB 16,000–17,000 per unit vs. Q4 last year, the company targets steady growth in absolute GP. Management sees this as a reflection of system capabilities across tech, product, supply chain, sales and brand management. **Q: Operating and FCF were strong in H1. How will cash burn and FCF trend for the full year, and where will cash be allocated?** A: **Full-year CapEx is Approx. RMB 6.0–7.0bn, with positive FCF in Q3 and Q4.** CapEx is roughly flat YoY, mainly for product R&D and sales/service network, with limited spend on capacity and plants.The plan remains to add 1,000 swap stations this year. Unlike prior years, the new builds are expected to be fully funded by Power Up partners, a program launched in 2024.To date, partnerships were signed with 40+ SOEs, platform companies and FIs across 25 provinces and municipalities. The battery asset manager Nio Power (WeNeng) made solid progress raising funds via multiple channels in H1.Receivables due from WeNeng fell from over RMB 16.0bn at the start of the year to under RMB 15.0bn by end-Q2. With volume growth and better operations, cash reserves should continue to rise in H2. **Q: How do you differentiate in AD amid homogenization, and will you consider per-use or subscription pricing?** A: **AD subscription for used-car users is RMB 380/month, with paid penetration around 20%.** On technology, WorldModel with closed-loop RL and collective intelligence achieves strong UX with relatively modest training compute.On Jun. 18, the latest version was pushed to over 700,000 users, spanning brands and chip platforms simultaneously. Management views this as validation of its tech approach.Among ET9 users on the Gen-3 platform with NX9031 chips, Approx. 58% used AD features for more than half of their trips. On the business model, Nio and ONVO new-car buyers get five years of free AD subscription.After five years, and for used-car users, fees apply. The used-car monthly fee is currently RMB 380 with penetration around 20%, implying annual revenue of tens of millions of RMB.Management said the payer base is still small today, but over time it will become a meaningful revenue stream. **Q: What are the unit CapEx and maintenance costs for the Gen-5 swap station? What is the pricing and unit economics for opening it to third parties?** A: **Gen-5 station CapEx is about RMB 1.4mn per site, down RMB 100,000 vs. Gen-4, and Nio charges access fees for third parties.** The figure excludes on-site battery packs and high-voltage power supply and capacity expansion costs.Gen-5 adopts a flexible design compatible with all models from Nio, ONVO and Firefly, from small cars to full-size SUVs, with further material cost optimization vs. Gen-4.On operations, staffing efficiency, first-time swap success rate and software features keep improving, up 50% vs. early last year. Gen-5 is still ramping, but success rates are already better than prior generations at the same stage.For third-party access, alliance projects signed years ago with multiple OEMs are still progressing, and Robotaxi is seen as a new scenario for the swap network. Fees will mainly be network access charges.More specifics depend on live projects. Management believes more OEMs on the network will spread operating costs, and standardized packs will lift efficiency and optimize the cost structure. **Q: Was the elevated Q2 S&M due to clustered new launches, and what is the 2026 opex outlook?** A: **R&D runs at Approx. RMB 2.5bn per quarter, while H2 SG&A is 10%–11% of revenue.** R&D figures are non-GAAP and flex by project and business cadence.Two efficiency drivers: a pure-BEV focus without splitting resources across BEV/PHEV/EREV, and an internal CBU mechanism to measure and continually improve R&D and org efficiency. Management believes it can sustain tech and product leadership at relatively lower investment intensity.On SG&A, H1 non-GAAP sales expense was about 13% of revenue. Q2 was elevated mainly by Approx. RMB 500mn one-offs tied to new launches, including ES9 and ONVO refreshes, with most costs incurred in Q2.There will be no such one-offs in H2. **Q: You made a strategic investment in a physical AI/embodied intelligence start-up founded by Ren Shaoqing. What are the long-term synergies and value?** A: **No investment amount or synergy details were disclosed, and Ren Shaoqing remains head of AD.** Nio invested as a strategic shareholder in this physical AI and embodied intelligence start-up.Management said this allows tracking the field without diluting focus on the core business or impacting Nio's P&L, while leveraging the start-up to attract external strategic shareholders and top AI talent.There will be extensive strategic collaboration projects over time. **Q: Sales outlook for Q4 and for 2027?** A: **Q4 target is >40,000 monthly deliveries, and mid- to long-term annual growth of 40%–50%.** This assumes the passenger car market improves in Q4, supported by the current product matrix and sales/service coverage.No specific volume figure was provided for 2027. \ **Risk disclosure and statement:**[**Dolphin Research Disclaimer and General Disclosure**](https://support.longbridge.global/topics/misc/dolphin-disclaimer) ### Related Stocks - [09866.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/09866.HK.md) - [NIO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NIO.US.md) - [NIO.SG](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NIO.SG.md) --- > **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**