--- title: "GOOGL Wavers; AVGO's Solo Pitch Won't Satisfy" type: "Topics" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/dolphin/post/43726753.md" description: "Broadcom (AVGO) released its fiscal Q3 2026 results after-hours, Beijing time Sep 3, 2026 (quarter ended Jul 2026). 1) AI, the core of its semiconductor biz, delivered revenue of $16.7bn, up $5.9bn QoQ and above the $16.0bn consensus, driven by large-batch deliveries of TPU v7 to Google and Anthropic. Google and other hyperscalers have recently raised their 2026 capex outlooks..." datetime: "2026-09-03T02:00:37.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/dolphin/post/43726753.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/dolphin/post/43726753.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/dolphin/post/43726753.md) author: "[Dolphin Research](https://longbridge.com/en/dolphin.md)" generator: "portal-rs" --- # GOOGL Wavers; AVGO's Solo Pitch Won't Satisfy AVGO released its Q3 FY2026 results (quarter ended Jul 2026) after the U.S. market close in the early hours of Sep 3 Beijing time: **1\. AI biz: the core of the semi segment.** AVGO’s AI revenue was $16.7bn this quarter, up $5.9bn QoQ and ahead of the Street (~$16.0bn), driven by volume ramps of Google and Anthropic’s TPUv7. **Large caps like Google also raised 2026 capex outlooks, and Anthropic’s deliveries will accelerate from 2H.** Mgmt guides next-quarter AI revenue of $21.7bn, +$5.0bn QoQ. **2\. AVGO outlook:** Q4 FY2026 revenue ~$34.8bn, below consensus (~$35.5bn). Mgmt expects non-GAAP OPM of 66% in Q4 FY2026. **Given**$Broadcom(AVGO.US) **provided annual AI revenue outlooks, quarterly guidance matters somewhat less.** Post-earnings, mgmt guided AI revenue for FY2026–FY2028 to $58bn (prev. $56bn), $115bn (prev. $100bn) and $230bn. **For FY2027, mgmt still points to 10GW capacity.** The Street generally models $130–150bn revenue on 10GW, so the company’s stance remains muted. FY2028’s $230bn on 20GW is solid, but with 10GW tied to Anthropic, the market discounts this portion, especially as Anthropic’s ARR slope has recently slowed. **3\. Operating metrics:** revenue was $29.6bn this quarter, +86% YoY and in line with consensus (~$29.5bn). QoQ growth of $7.4bn was mainly driven by AI. GPM was 69%. **Ex acquisition amortization and restructuring, Adj. GPM was 74%, down 200bps QoQ** as lower-margin ASIC mix increased, pressuring headline margins. **4\. AVGO’s biz splits into Semis and Infra Software.** **① Semis:** $20.8bn this quarter, +$5.8bn QoQ, with AI as the primary driver. Ex-AI, non-AI revenue was $4.2bn, +5% YoY, with broadband and server/storage up, offset by wireless softness. **② Infra Software:** $8.75bn, +29% YoY, supported by VMware Private AI Cloud and VCF workload repatriation, i.e., enterprise AI tailwinds. Previously, growth was driven by VMware integration and the shift from perpetual licenses to subs. With M&A effects fading, **future growth will hinge on VMware subs-driven organic growth.** **5\. Opex:** core operating expenses (R&D + S&M) were $3.9bn this quarter, stable. With strong top-line growth, the core opex ratio fell to ~13%. Over the past two years, AVGO has clearly increased SBC-related spend (now nearly half of core opex). **Ex-SBC, core opex was $2.1bn this quarter, down $80mn QoQ.** **Trans please**[**click**](https://longbridge.com/en/dolphin/post/43725389) **Dolphin Research view:** **Long-dated guide has blemishes; intensifying competition clouds visibility** AVGO delivered revenue and GPM roughly in line with expectations. Top-line strength was largely from **AI**; **Adj. GPM of 74%** fell 200bps QoQ after excluding acquisition amortization and restructuring. Structurally, rising mix of lower-margin ASICs keeps pressure on margins medium term. The market’s focus is AI: AI revenue was $16.7bn this quarter, +$5.9bn QoQ. **Mgmt guides next quarter AI revenue to $21.7bn, +$5.0bn QoQ, slightly ahead of consensus ($21.5bn).** **AVGO sold off harder in the prior pullback, beyond sector beta, on competitive risks.** Google remains the key customer, but **Google has begun a 'backup supplier' plan: ① split TPUv8 into dual versions and add MTK to the supply chain; ② took Marvell warrants and signed a custom silicon agreement with Marvell.** **After last earnings, mgmt lifted FY2027 shipments to 10GW but kept revenue guide at '>$100bn'.** Whether $15bn or $20bn per GW, 10GW implies well above $100bn, yet mgmt did not raise, which the market read as a confidence gap, triggering a 12% one-day drop post print. **NVIDIA just guided 70%+ growth for FY2028 (CY2027).** Facing MTK and Marvell pressure, investors want AVGO to lift its FY2027 (CY2027) AI guide more decisively. **On the call, mgmt raised AI guides to $58bn (from $56bn) for this year and '>$115bn' (from $100bn) for FY2027,** and provided a FY2028 outlook of $230bn (20GW). **Since most houses model FY2027 AI revenue at ~$130–150bn,** the $115bn still reads as cautious or sandbagging. For FY2028’s 20GW (~$230bn), **half is tied to Anthropic, a smaller-cap CSP proxy with weaker funding capacity,** and with ARR slope slowing lately, the market discounts this leg. Outside the print, the market is watching the following at AVGO: **a) Customers & capex:** AVGO has 6 custom XPU customers (unchanged), including Google TPU, Meta MTIA, Anthropic, OpenAI and two undisclosed. Google and Meta have long been the main custom ASIC buyers; Anthropic and OpenAI start contributing from 2H. **Street-implied split of FY2027’s 10GW:** Google (3–4GW), Anthropic (5GW), OpenAI (1–2GW), Meta (1–2GW). **Google and Meta both raised full-year capex again post results,** supporting demand visibility. For Anthropic and OpenAI, investors focus on ARR slopes; Anthropic’s recent slowdown raises uncertainty. **b) AI chips & competition:** NVIDIA remains dominant, while **AVGO is a challenger, but now faces 'fires in the backyard'.** **The AVGO + Google TPU combo emerged as a rival to NVIDIA, yet Google is uneasy with a single-source tie-up,** pulling MTK into TPUv8 and engaging with Marvell. Focus has shifted from 'threat to NVIDIA' to 'can AVGO defend TPU share?' **Marvell’s recent Google agreement defines eligible revenue as Google’s custom ASICs,** including AI inference accelerators, storage controllers, NICs, memory interfaces and near-memory compute. This clearly overlaps with AVGO’s custom TPU/ASIC relationship with Google. **c) Financing platform:** AVGO and Apollo/Blackstone’s credit insurance units formed the **AI XPV Platform**, targeting >20GW by 2028 using AVGO XPUs and networking, customized for frontier labs (explicitly Anthropic and OpenAI). The first $35bn tranche, led by Apollo, funds Anthropic’s >1GW deployment at Fluidstack sites. **Mechanics:** Apollo/Blackstone finance the chip purchases from AVGO and deliver to cash-constrained frontier labs. Revenue is real for AVGO, but ultimate repayment depends on Anthropic/OpenAI’s commercial success (ARR). **While 'chips-only' keeps AVGO cleaner, the collateral is a custom XPU for a single client’s single model stack,** with little resale value (vs. NVIDIA’s general-purpose GPUs). If residual value is zero, the next funding round may vanish, injecting uncertainty into the 20GW ramp. At a ~$1.75tn mkt cap, AVGO trades at ~16x post-tax core OP for FY2027 by our math (assumptions: revenue CAGR +76%, Adj. GPM 70%, tax 11%). Initially viewed as a share taker vs. NVIDIA, AVGO’s multiple was richer. Now, facing MTK and Marvell, it has become the 'target', with the multiple compressed to ~16x PE. **Key concerns:** intensifying competition could threaten share at Google; and reliance on frontier labs (Anthropic/OpenAI) means a slower ARR slope raises uncertainty and risks a 'funding loop' trap. Overall, execution met expectations, but investors care more about AI outlook. **Mgmt raised FY2027 AI guidance and added FY2028, yet the guide still has issues:** $115bn for FY2027 is below consensus, and the FY2028 20GW uplift is concentrated in Anthropic and OpenAI. **Unlike NVIDIA’s general GPUs, AVGO’s custom ASICs have narrow collateral use, elevating tail risk.** If Anthropic or OpenAI’s ARR slows, orders could be cut and broader partnership roadmaps impaired. **Higher AI guides help, but may not fully restore confidence as Anthropic exposure is viewed as uncertain.** Until concerns ease, the multiple likely stays near ~15x. Detailed data and charts on AVGO’s results from Dolphin Research: \ Related AVGO coverage by Dolphin Research: Hot take: Jul 7, 2026 Hot Take: [AVGO: Can’t catch NVIDIA, now hunted by 'smaller rivals'?](https://longportapp.cn/en/topics/42474156) Earnings: Jun 4, 2026 Trans: [AVGO (Trans): Chips-only strategy; customers diversifying supply chains](https://longportapp.cn/en/topics/41463849) Jun 4, 2026 Earnings Take: [AVGO: Titans vs. Titans — ASIC camp splitting?](https://longportapp.cn/en/topics/41463124) Mar 5, 2026 Trans: [AVGO (Trans): FY2027 AI revenue >$100bn; XPU partnerships sustainable](https://longportapp.cn/en/topics/39073892) Mar 5, 2026 Earnings Take: [AVGO: AI at full throttle — a stiffer rival to NVIDIA?](https://longportapp.cn/en/topics/39070789) Dec 12, 2025 Trans: [AVGO (Trans): Anthropic adds $10bn+; $73bn orders as a floor](https://longportapp.cn/en/topics/37083330) Dec 12, 2025 Earnings Take: [AVGO: Challenging NVIDIA, but the vanguard blinked first?](https://longportapp.cn/en/topics/37081333) Sep 5, 2025 Trans: [AVGO (Trans): AI revenue growth to exceed 60% next fiscal year](https://longportapp.cn/en/topics/33658831) Sep 5, 2025 Earnings Take: [NVIDIA, AMD cool off? AVGO grabs the AI baton](https://longportapp.cn/en/topics/33654872) Jun 6, 2025 Trans: [AVGO (Trans): AI revenue to sustain 60% growth into 2026](https://longportapp.cn/en/topics/30421923) Jun 6, 2025 Earnings Take: [AVGO: ASIC growth 'misfires' — hiccup or opportunity?](https://longportapp.cn/en/topics/30413673) Mar 7, 2025 Trans: [AVGO (Trans): ASIC customers expand from 2 to '3+4'; no M&A for now](https://longportapp.cn/en/topics/27896151) Mar 7, 2025 Earnings Take: [Marvell stumbles, NVIDIA in a lull? AVGO as the anchor](https://longportapp.cn/en/topics/27895695) Risk disclosure and statement: [Dolphin Research disclaimer and general disclosure](https://support.longbridge.global/topics/misc/dolphin-disclaimer) ### Related Stocks - [MRVL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MRVL.US.md) - [AVGO.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AVGO.US.md) - [688168.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/688168.CN.md) - [GOOG.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GOOG.US.md) - [GOOGL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GOOGL.US.md) - [GOOGN.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GOOGN.US.md) --- > **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**