--- title: "AAPL: Memory Costs Surge, Price Hikes Loom — Can Foldables Save the Day?" type: "Topics" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/dolphin/post/43840612.md" description: "Apple's fall event on Sept 9 (ET) was the first since John Ternus took over as CEO. Tim Cook transitioned to executive chairman.The event was not a full lineup refresh. Apple unveiled iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max, along with its first foldable, iPhone Duo. It also introduced Apple Watch Series 12, Apple Watch Ultra 4, and AirPods 5..." datetime: "2026-09-10T08:54:39.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/dolphin/post/43840612.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/dolphin/post/43840612.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/dolphin/post/43840612.md) author: "[Dolphin Research](https://longbridge.com/en/dolphin.md)" generator: "portal-rs" --- # AAPL: Memory Costs Surge, Price Hikes Loom — Can Foldables Save the Day? Apple held its fall event on Sep 9 (ET), the first under new CEO John Ternus, with Tim Cook moving to Executive Chairman. The company did not do a full-line refresh, unveiling only the **iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max, the first foldable iPhone Duo**, plus Apple Watch Series 12, Apple Watch Ultra 4, and AirPods 5. **There were no updates to the standard iPhone 18 or iPhone Air 2**. **Dolphin Research highlights**$Apple(AAPL.US) **three key points: no standard model, price hikes across the board, and the first foldable**. These were the core takeaways from the event. **a) No standard model: only high-end launches (Pro + Pro Max + foldable)**, with the standard iPhone 18 pushed to spring. This marks a deliberate focus on the premium tier for this cycle. **Dolphin Research sees two main reasons:** first, the 2nm ramp is still early, constraining capacity that Apple prioritizes for high-end models. **Second, a sharp rise in memory costs**, with handset memory pricing estimated to be up over 100% YoY, makes it harder to pass costs to more price-sensitive standard-model buyers. **b) Price hikes across the line: legacy models up, not down**. Historically, older models were cut by $100 at launch cycles, but not this time. The Pro and Pro Max starting prices each rose by $100 (reflecting 2nm and memory), which is standard practice. **What is unusual is that Apple also raised starting prices for the iPhone 17 standard, Air, and 17e by $100**, reversing the typical price-cut playbook. **The broad-based increase is mainly due to memory inflation and resulting cost pressure**. iPhones produced in 2H largely use memory priced under new contracts signed in 1H, and contract memory prices rose over 50% QoQ in Q1. **Back in Jun 2026, Apple already raised prices for Mac, iPad, HomePod, and Vision Pro**, while excluding iPhone at the time. Now, it has finally lifted prices across the iPhone line as well. **c) First foldable launched**: Android OEMs have had foldables for years, and the market has long anticipated Apple’s entry. **The iPhone Duo has finally arrived**. **iPhone Duo starts at $1,999**, using a passport-style horizontal inward fold, with a 5.4-inch cover screen and a 7.6-inch inner display. When unfolded, it is the thinnest iPhone ever; China pricing starts at RMB 15,999 with preorders on Oct 16 and availability on Oct 23. **Versus Pro/Pro Max, Duo brings a 50% larger inner display area vs the 18 Pro Max**, the first under-display camera on the inner screen, a dual-battery design, and a standout precision hinge. These are the headline changes. **Apple emphasizes 'iPhone Duo is a standalone line and does not replace Pro'**. The five-week later on-sale date reflects capacity constraints and demand management. Beyond iPhone, Apple also announced Apple Watch Series 12, Apple Watch Ultra 4, and AirPods 5. These were not the main focus, and with watches and earbuds not seeing price increases while iPhones did, **it reinforces that this round of hikes is purely memory-cost driven**. **d) Big picture: volume under pressure, protect GPM, push foldables**. That frames Apple’s approach this cycle. **Apple raised all iPhone prices by $100**, below the $200–$250 many expected, but higher prices will still weigh on end demand. Previously, Android OEMs raised prices while iPhone held steady, helping the iPhone 17 series surge (+15% YoY vs industry down ~6%). **The increase will ease hardware GPM pressure but could push price-sensitive buyers away**, putting overall iPhone shipments under pressure. **The iPhone Duo (foldable) is the headline product and the first entirely new SKU under Ternus**. With total units under pressure, a ~$2,000 starting price should lift the iPhone ASP. **Apple avoided early tech missteps**, waiting for hinges and other core technologies to mature before launching. Pricing sits in the middle of Android rivals: Huawei Mate XT 2 starts at RMB 19,999 and Xiaomi 18 Fold at RMB 10,999, **while iPhone Duo China pricing starts at RMB 15,999**. **Based on this event, we assume next fiscal year’s iPhone ASP rises ~15% YoY** (pricing + mix), shipments see a low single-digit decline (pricing + no standard-model refresh), and overall GPM eases to 48% (down 100bps). These are base-case assumptions. **At today’s market cap of $4.6tn**, Apple would be trading at ~32x PE on FY2027 net income. Historically, Apple’s valuation has been stable in the 30–35x range, roughly mapping to $296–$345. **For further upside, watch for upside surprises in iPhone Duo demand and AI progress**. On the flip side, if the price hike drives a double-digit drop in iPhone unit volumes, the multiple could fall below 30x PE. **For the Apple supply chain**, Dolphin Research sees memory-driven price pressure (and demand headwinds) weighing on overall iPhone shipment expectations, indirectly affecting key vendors like Luxshare. Meanwhile, the Duo launch clearly boosts hinge and related component demand (benefiting names such as Lingyi iTech and Amphenol). Below is the detailed rundown of Apple’s fall event. The following sections break down each product. **1) iPhone Duo** Starts at $1,999 in the U.S.; China pricing starts at RMB 15,999 with a 2TB top-end at RMB 26,499, making it the most expensive iPhone yet. Preorders begin Oct 16, with availability on Oct 23, five full weeks after the Pro series. It folds horizontally inward and closes to roughly passport size. **The inner display is 7.6 inches, with 50% more area than the 18 Pro Max**, while the 5.4-inch cover screen is about 90% of the 18 Pro’s area; both panels run at 120Hz with 3,000-nit peak brightness. Key additions include the **first under-display FaceTime camera on the inner screen**, leaving no punch-holes. It also debuts a dual-battery architecture and, paired with global eSIM freeing space, offers 31 hours of inner-screen video playback. The device drops Face ID for a side-mounted Touch ID and is the first iPhone to support Apple Pencil. Structurally, it uses a grade-5 titanium midframe, ceramic fiber in antenna breaks, a carbon-fiber support plate, and is IP68 rated. **The hinge uses 100+ precision parts**, with AI matching casing parameters, and 3D printing applied to the titanium hinge cover; unfolded it is 5.1mm, folded 11.3mm, and weighs 254g. It runs A20 Pro with C2 and dual 48MP rear cameras, and comes in Starlight White and Night Sky Black only. Apple positions Duo as an independent high-end line. It does not replace the 18 Pro. **2) iPhone Pro/Pro Max** Starting prices are $1,199 and $1,299, with China at RMB 9,999 and RMB 10,999; 2TB tops out at RMB 20,499 and RMB 21,499. Preorders open Sep 12 and sales begin Sep 18. **A20 Pro is the first 2nm smartphone chip**. The CPU adds two new super cores for a 20% speed gain, the GPU moves to 7 cores with +40% graphics, and a 2x-speed FP8 is added for on-device third-party LLMs; **a second NPU is introduced for the first time, totaling 32 cores with AI perf doubled**, and memory bandwidth is up 50%. Packaging borrows from the M-series, placing chip and memory side by side with memory off the main thermal path; **the baseband moves to Apple’s in-house C2**. **The main camera debuts a variable aperture** with six laser-cut blades and four stops, bringing roughly 50% more light in low light, plus new Pro Controls for manual white balance, histogram, and shutter speed. Apple also adds a new Reference Image mode that signs at capture for a tamper-proof reference frame. **Thermals and battery life are underappreciated upgrades**. The vapor chamber is 3x the size of the 17 Pro’s, using deionized water circulation and nano-twinned copper, delivering 40% sustained performance gains vs the 17 Pro. On eSIM models, video playback reaches 36/45 hours, with Pro Max delivering the largest battery-life jump in iPhone history. Other changes include a smaller Dynamic Island that can show three live activities at once. The aluminum comes color-matched with same-color glass, adding Glacier Blue and Burgundy; storage now starts at 256GB and adds a 2TB tier. **3) Apple Watch Series 12 / Ultra 4** Both run the S11 chip. Pricing holds at $399 and $799, respectively. The biggest upgrade is a redesigned health-sensing system. A larger, more power-efficient green LED drives background heart-rate sampling as fast as every 5 seconds and HRV every 5 minutes, with sampling frequencies 60x and 24x the prior gen; ECG electrode area is enlarged. New Readiness (0–10) and Health Age scores debut, the Health app is redesigned, and lab results are now supported. The second major addition is Audio Intelligence. Siri Recap uses ambient audio to summarize daily conversational highlights, Live Recap transcribes the most recent 15 seconds, and it can detect baby cries, doorbells, and sirens; all features are opt-in. Series 12 materials see a notable refresh, adding Deep Bronze aluminum and two polished titanium options, with ceramic returning after seven years. China pricing starts at RMB 2,999 for aluminum and RMB 7,499 for ceramic; Ultra 4 keeps a similar look with a single 49mm Cellular-only model and boosts battery life to 50 hours daily, 45 hours GPS, and 84 hours in Low Power; China pricing starts at RMB 6,499. **4) AirPods 5** Priced at $129 and $149 in the U.S., and RMB 999 and RMB 1,149 in China. **The core change is ANC on both versions**, bringing active noise cancellation to the entry model and extending ANC across Apple’s entire earbud lineup. A new multi-port acoustic architecture boosts ANC effectiveness by 50% vs the ANC version of AirPods 4. The $149 model adds stem volume control and a wireless charging case. **5) iOS 27 and Apple Intelligence**. Highlights below. **Siri AI is the focal point**: it understands personal context across apps, fuses real-world knowledge, sees what the user sees, and executes directly in third-party apps, with compatibility for 300k+ apps. A standalone Siri app is added to the home screen; this month it supports 16 languages, with Siri AI launching an English beta first and adding French, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese, and Spanish in Oct. Other updates include a rebuilt Image Playground, Photos Extend and Spatial Reframing, 80% faster AirDrop, and iPhone Handoff. \ **Dolphin Research’s Apple coverage recap:** Jul 31, 2026 earnings call notes: '[Apple (Trans): Selling too well creates headaches? Sep guide capped by FX and supply](https://longportapp.cn/en/topics/43096386)'. Additional context provided in the transcript. Jul 31, 2026 earnings review: '[Apple: Pushing through price hikes — how long can hardware leadership hold?](https://longportapp.cn/en/topics/43105865)'. This piece discusses pricing power. May 1, 2026 earnings call notes: '[Apple (Trans): No longer insisting on 'net cash neutral'; new Siri coming this year](https://longportapp.cn/en/topics/40345788)'. Key takeaways summarized. May 1, 2026 earnings review: '[Apple: AI gap and memory inflation, still 'steady and happy'?](https://longportapp.cn/en/topics/40345328)'. Review focuses on AI positioning. Jan 30, 2026 earnings call notes: '[Apple (Trans): New Siri to partner with Google, while in-house efforts continue](https://longportapp.cn/en/topics/38265257)'. Highlights captured. Jan 30, 2026 earnings review: '[iPhone on fire, Gemini assist — is Apple’s AI era here?](https://longportapp.cn/en/topics/38257779)'. Post-earnings analysis included. Oct 31, 2025 earnings call notes: '[Apple (Trans): Stepping up AI spend, new Siri next year](https://longportapp.cn/en/topics/35831673)'. Notes emphasize AI capex. Oct 31, 2025 earnings review: '[Apple: iPhone still center stage — when will AI show its hand?](https://longportapp.cn/en/topics/35828799)'. Discussion centers on product mix. Sep 10, 2025 event review: '[Apple: Minor iPhone refresh to hold the line, AI surprise still pending?](https://longportapp.cn/en/topics/33825264)'. Event commentary provided. Aug 1, 2025 earnings call notes: '[Apple (Trans): Capex growth mainly from AI investments](https://longportapp.cn/en/topics/32493092)'. Focus on capital allocation. Aug 1, 2025 earnings review: '[Apple: AI delays, iPhone to the rescue](https://longportapp.cn/en/topics/32486459)'. Review addresses execution risk. Risk disclosure and statement: [Dolphin Research disclaimer and general disclosure](https://support.longbridge.global/topics/misc/dolphin-disclaimer) ### Related Stocks - [AAPL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/AAPL.US.md) --- > **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**