--- type: "Topics" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/dolphin/post/44216388.md" description: "On Oct 2 and Oct 6, SpaceX rallied 7.4% and 7.6% in single sessions.It broke through $155 and $170, rebounding nearly 60% from the Aug low.Dolphin Research view:This is the post-Q2 playbook: SpaceX, like Tesla, is priced off event catalysts rather than near-term earnings delivery.Long-dated bets such as space compute and a 10GW AI build-out drive most of the valuation but contribute little profit today, so the stock is essentially a probability-weighted option whose catalysts raise exercise odds.Over the past two weeks, catalysts across multiple legs landed almost simultaneously.1. Starship: On Sep 28, the 14th flight reached orbit for the first time — approx. 275km orbit, all 26 Starlink V3 satellites deployed and linked.Although one vacuum Raptor shut down early and the mission shortened to ~3 hours from six orbits, the full loop of 'orbit + payload deployment + controlled re-entry' has been proven end to end.In the same week, three historic missions were completed within 24 hours (NASA crewed Crew-13, Google AI chip payload to orbit, Starship Flight 14).Google's TPU prototype satellites (Project Suncatcher, 4 TPUs) entered orbit for testing on Oct 1 via Falcon 9 Transporter-18.That said, true validation of the $200/kg economics still hinges on full reuse — simultaneous capture of both stages.Musk has guided that Flight 15 (expected late Oct–early Nov) will attempt the first upper-stage capture using the launch tower's mechanical arms.This is the single largest positive catalyst since the IPO.2. AI: Five clients' compute ARR has reached ~$54.5bn.Disclosed annualized compute contracts total approx. $41.0bn: Anthropic pays $1.25bn/month, Google pays $920mn/month starting in Oct, a new agreement from Dec 1 pays $1.11bn/month (~$13.3bn annualized), and Reflection totals ~$6.3bn over three years.Anthropic's F-1 indicates its agreement cap with SpaceX could be as high as $84.5bn.3. Musk Beta: Tesla Q3 deliveries were 486.5k, beating estimates by ~5.3%.On Sep 30, Musk was appointed co-lead of the U.S. DoD 'Meridian Program', and SpaceX's cumulative DoD awards exceed $12.7bn.On Oct 3, Musk confirmed talks with TSMC on 'Terafab' (TSMC may own and operate the plant and provide advanced processes; Intel joined in Apr but progress has been limited).4. Macro: Nonfarm payrolls missed.Fed officials turned more dovish, cooling Oct hike odds.Dolphin Research's take: The market is pricing SpaceX's AI ARR as Anthropic‑like revenue, but it is not.This is bare‑metal compute leasing, priced at $30–45bn per GW, or 3–4x new cloud vendors.Each contract can be terminated by either party with 90 days' notice; $84.5bn is a cap, not backlog. Clients are paying a scarcity premium, which we expect to narrow as supply–demand balances by 2027–28.Valuation:Upside case — AI biz at approx. $1.2tn: ground compute leasing at ~$54bn ARR × 4.5 EV/ARR ≈ $245bn, space data centers at ~$814bn, plus Grok/X and other AI assets of ~$0.1–0.2tn.Rockets + Starlink at ~$1.4tn.Total ~$2.5–2.6tn ($190–195/sh), implying ~12–15% upside vs. $170. At $170, the implied valuation is ~$2.2–2.3tn, which sits in a neutral-to-optimistic fair range.This upside cap effectively assumes high execution on Musk's space data center plan (100GW deployed brought forward to 2035 from 2045; Musk's own guide is around 2030).Delivery depends on three conditions — a step-change in launch costs, GPU radiation tolerance and vacuum thermal management, and sustained AI demand growth.It is a 'probability‑weighted option', and each quarter's Starship reuse progress, launch cadence, and thermal validation will reset pricing.What is verifiable today: AI demand remains strong (rents are rising), and SpaceX, with a time‑to‑power edge (6–8x faster deployment, ~half the cost), has secured per‑contract pricing at 3–5x new cloud — with half the premium from scarcity and half from cancellable orders.Launch costs and thermal validation have yet to be delivered.Cadence: unlocks are staggered — approx. 328mn shares each on Oct 9 and Oct 24 (historically, batches of similar size triggered ~4% brief pullbacks), with limited expected impact.The real test comes in the two trading days post‑Q3 print in early Nov, when ~1.3bn shares (28% of the 180‑day lock‑up pool, largest single batch) unlock.A further ~800mn shares come due on Dec 8.Therefore, simply putting existing ARR online is not enough.The market needs new compute orders commensurate with capex to keep marking up ground compute leasing valuation.Otherwise, risk/reward above $2.6tn looks thin.Supplement: Apollo is leading a $40bn debt raise to procure NVIDIA chips.Per FT, SpaceX plans ~$10bn in bank loans and ~$30bn in IG bonds (Apollo leading, Pimco in talks), targeting GPU delivery by 2027.Shares dipped ~1% after hours on the news.The money itself is not new.Back in Aug, we flagged a financing 'bottomless pit': post‑IPO plus bonds, cash would be ~$100bn, 2026 capex ~$65bn, and a 10GW plan in 2027 could reach $240–280bn if fully built.At ~$35–40bn per GW, $40bn funds only ~1GW, about one‑tenth of the plan — the first ticket, not the full bill.Choosing debt is the right call: it avoids incremental equity dilution amid unlocks.Securing an IG rating also shows credit markets view 'GPUs + blue‑chip contracts' as viable collateral.Our concern is duration mismatch: multi‑year debt serviced by contracts cancellable on 90 days' notice, with chips as collateral that will date over a few product cycles.The 90‑day clause already leaves tech iteration risk with SpaceX, now layered with leverage.This is CoreWeave's playbook (pledge GPUs to borrow, then lease to majors), and the math hinges on pricing.At current $30–45bn/GW rents, 1GW pays back in ~1 year.If rents fall to new cloud's $10–15bn, payback stretches to 3–4 years — near GPU life even before interest.So this deal is a leveraged bet that scarcity premia persist.That is exactly what we think will fade: chips arrive in 2027, when premia start narrowing, making SpaceX's AI biz look like a levered new cloud strapped to a rocket.We will watch three things: IG bond spreads (10Y UST ~5.2%, near 2002 highs), whether Starship Flight 15 achieves full two‑stage reuse via capture, and whether new leasing orders are signed before chips arrive.These will determine the sustainability of pricing and the path to de‑risking." datetime: "2026-10-07T08:34:36.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/dolphin/post/44216388.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/dolphin/post/44216388.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/dolphin/post/44216388.md) author: "[Dolphin Research](https://longbridge.com/en/dolphin.md)" generator: "portal-rs" --- # On Oct 2 and Oct 6, SpaceX rallied 7.4% and 7.6% i… ### Related Stocks - [TSLA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLA.US.md) - [SPCX.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SPCX.US.md) - [GOOG.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GOOG.US.md) - [GOOGL.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GOOGL.US.md) - [ANTH.NA](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/ANTH.NA.md) - [UXSD.SG](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/UXSD.SG.md) - [GOOGN.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GOOGN.US.md) - [TSM.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSM.US.md) - [NVDA.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDA.US.md) - [INTC.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/INTC.US.md) --- > **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**