---
title: "EVs are mature; the de-CATL push is here. Is CATL in real trouble this time?"
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/dolphin/post/44443105.md"
description: "Net profit per Wh fell below 0.09 earlier than expected. The full-quarter impact of the excise tax has yet to be reflected."
datetime: "2026-10-20T15:47:20.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/dolphin/post/44443105.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/dolphin/post/44443105.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/dolphin/post/44443105.md)
author: "[Dolphin Research](https://longbridge.com/en/dolphin.md)"
generator: "portal-rs"
---

# EVs are mature; the de-CATL push is here. Is CATL in real trouble this time?

On the evening of Oct 20, 2026, $CATL(03750.HK) posted its Q3 2026 results. Key takeaways:

**1) Revenue stayed strong but missed:** Q3 revenue came in at RMB 165.2 bn (+59% YoY), below the street's RMB 175.0 bn.

The growth was volume-led, with the seasonal uptick and pull-ins ahead of the battery consumption tax effective Sept 1.

**2) Shipments remained robust, broadly in line:** Q3 battery shipments recognized as revenue exceeded 260 GWh (+~58% YoY, +~12% QoQ), roughly matching market expectations.

By mix, EV battery shipments were ~195 GWh (+~48% YoY). Despite negative YoY domestic NEV sales, growth was driven by faster electrification in Europe (Sept NEV sales in 9 European countries +51% YoY; penetration 43.2%), strong exports by Chinese brands, commercial EV adoption, and higher kWh per vehicle.Energy storage shipments were ~65 GWh (nearly doubled YoY), outpacing traction batteries. Global ESS demand remains upbeat, and lower lithium carbonate prices also improved project economics.

**3) RMB/Wh flat QoQ, product mix offset lithium-linked pricing:** Q3 revenue per Wh (total revenue/shipments) was ~RMB 0.57/Wh, roughly flat vs. Q2.

Lithium carbonate prices slumped sharply since May (down 39% by end-Sep), and the 1–2 month pass-through in EV batteries began to pressure ASPs. But ESS is extending from DC cells to AC systems, where richer mix helped offset the linkage-driven price cuts.

**4) GPM fell notably QoQ, below expectations:** Q3 blended GPM was 20.7%, below the street at 21.5% and down ~250 bps QoQ from 23.2%, the third straight quarterly decline. RMB/Wh GP thus dropped from ~RMB 0.148/Wh in Q2 to ~RMB 0.131/Wh.

GP was ~RMB 34.2 bn, roughly flat QoQ. Revenue rose nearly 12% QoQ but failed to lift GP.GPM declined QoQ mainly due to:

a. Product mix — management cited higher share of lower value-add, simpler-to-make products, plus more rush orders; this effect outweighed tax items.b. Export VAT rebate cuts (from 9% to 6%) fully flowed through on a shipment basis in Q3.c. High-cost raw materials and WIP stocked in Q2 were consumed amid falling lithium prices.

**5) Net profit missed by ~20%; RMB/Wh NP fell to RMB 0.08:** Q3 attributable NP was RMB 21.25 bn. Despite revenue +59% YoY, NP rose only 14.5% YoY and fell 6% QoQ, even below the trimmed RMB 22–24 bn consensus.

On shipments of 260+ GWh, NP/Wh was ~RMB 0.082/Wh (Q2 ~RMB 0.097/Wh), down ~15% QoQ.Dolphin Research sees the main drags as:

a. QoQ GPM compression.b. The 2% battery consumption tax from Sept — taxes and surcharges jumped from RMB 0.69 bn in Q2 to RMB 2.21 bn, an increase of ~RMB 1.53 bn for just one month, far above Dolphin's RMB 0.8 bn estimate. Management confirmed the uplift was mainly consumption tax, which is price-inclusive and currently borne by the company pending cost-sharing talks, with a full-quarter impact in Q4.c. R&D rose to RMB 7.14 bn (Q2 RMB 6.1 bn).d. With lithium falling quickly, impairment losses rose QoQ by RMB 1.2 bn to RMB 1.7 bn, mainly inventory write-downs.

**Dolphin Research view:**

**Overall, Q3 was unsettling: revenue grew 59% YoY, but attributable NP was up only 15%, well below expectations. GPM, NP/Wh, and operating cash flow all weakened, with NP/Wh down from RMB 0.097 in Q2 to ~RMB 0.082.**

The biggest drags were the consumption tax (fully expensed before cost-sharing is agreed), lower export rebates, and higher impairments.Note the consumption tax affected only one month in Q3, with a full-quarter hit in Q4. If cost-sharing with customers is not resolved, management indicated unit profitability in Q4 could mirror Q3.

**Since the Q2 print, the HK stock fell from ~HKD 622 to ~HKD 412, while the A-share once hit RMB 259. The company has continued buybacks (last on Sept 18).**

**Dolphin Research believes the slide reflects multiple concerns, now compounded by the steep drop in NP/Wh:**

1) Lithium carbonate plunged, raising demand risks. Investors fear the cycle peak and the impact of falling ASP and inventory write-downs on NP/Wh.2) 2027 domestic demand may weaken (passenger EVs, ESS) while capacity ramps.3) OEMs may 'de-CATL-ize', pressuring share and pricing power.4) Under the triple squeeze of consumption tax, export VAT rebate cuts, and rebates, NP/Wh has downside. Details below:

**1) Lithium plunge: demand uncertainty is rising**

Contrary to Q2 fears that rising lithium would erode margins and trigger demand pushback, lithium carbonate fell sharply in Q3. Spot dropped 39% since May, with a 23% slide in Sept to RMB 120k/tonne, and mid-Oct neared RMB 100k, among the fastest historical declines.

**The plunge reflects a simultaneous narrative shift on both supply and demand:**

**a. Supply recovery accelerated:** Maintenance capacity returned, with Sept domestic lithium carbonate output up ~11% MoM. Zimbabwe concentrate arrivals may increase (Huayou's Zimbabwe mine targets 100–120 kt LCE shipments in 2027, though export restrictions could tighten from Jan 1, 2027). The Jianxiawo mine restart is also progressing.

**b. Demand softened at the margin:** Industry checks show the top-5 cell makers' Sept pipeline was cut from +7% MoM to +2%, mainly on CATL. CATL's Sept output outlook was cumulatively cut by 14% to -5% MoM, then up 6% in Oct to 112 GWh.With ESS clients trimming Q3 schedules, several leading cell and materials makers guiding lower for Q4 and 2027, plus rumors of ESS order cuts, the market now fears a sharp ESS slowdown in 2027 and a shift from tight to loose lithium supply, and is pricing in looser supply ahead.

Dolphin Research believes falling lithium should not be read simply as a cost tailwind — price reflects supply-demand.In Q2, lithium rose amid full downstream utilization and strong ESS stocking. In Q3, prices fell as supply recovered while marginal demand, especially domestic ESS and passenger EVs, lagged the pace, lifting demand uncertainty.

**For CATL, falling lithium will pressure ASPs and raise inventory write-down risks:**

**a. ASP linkage cuts:** EV batteries typically adjust to lithium with a 1–2 month lag. Q3 reflected May–Aug declines, while the sharp Sept drop means a bigger cut in Q4.

**b. Inventory write-down risk:** Q3 Avg. lithium carbonate fell ~14% QoQ. Inventory was a record ~RMB 131.0 bn at end-Q2 and rose to ~RMB 144.8 bn at end-Q3. In a rapid downcycle, consuming high-cost inventory compresses unit margins and lifts write-down provisions.

Q3 impairment losses were RMB 1.71 bn (Q2 ~RMB 0.5 bn), above the RMB 1.26 bn consensus and clearly up QoQ. If Q4 lithium stays at RMB 110–120k/tonne, write-down pressure persists.

**Lithium air-pockets often coincide with CATL multiple compression; the pivot is demand:**

From a historical lens, lithium carbonate fell from ~RMB 600k/tonne in Nov 2022 to ~RMB 100k by end-2023. CATL's market cap dropped from ~RMB 1.6 tn at end-2021 to a ~RMB 600 bn trough by end-Jan 2024, with PE (TTM) compressing to 14x.

**But 2024 was an exception:** Upstream deflation delivered cost tailwinds, NP/Wh held ~RMB 0.11, and ESS emerged as a second growth curve. Results beat, and both valuation and market cap recovered, nearly doubling off the trough.

**Note, however, the 2024 downcycle coincided with an ESS demand boom, allowing cost tailwinds to flow through. This time, the lithium downcycle comes alongside 2027 demand concerns — whether cost benefits translate into profit hinges on demand stabilization.**

**2) 2027: weaker domestic demand vs. concentrated capacity release**

Since Aug, investor worry shifted from slower 2027 demand growth to overcapacity, lower utilization, and another price war. Some even fear negative growth in 2027 ESS installs, echoing this year's PV pattern. Details:

**Total: Dolphin Research sees shipment growth slowing from ~40% to 20–25% in 2027, with 'domestic slowdown, overseas baton-pass'**

Global Li-ion demand is expected to grow ~36–45% in 2026 and slow materially to ~20–25% in 2027.By segment, the slowdown is mainly domestic — China passenger EVs and ESS shift from high to low growth, while overseas ESS and EVs, plus domestic commercial EVs, maintain ~20–50% growth and take the lead.

**a. China EV batteries: ~15% growth in 2027; flat passenger, commercial picks up**

**Passenger EVs:** Domestic NEV penetration is above 60%, entering a stock game. Jan–Sept domestic NEV retail sales were -12.8% YoY, but battery demand outperformed autos.Jan–Sept domestic traction battery installs were +17% YoY, and sales (incl. exports) +38%, mainly on higher kWh per vehicle — Avg. 69.5 kWh (+32% YoY), with BEV/PHEV at +17%/+44%. Larger BEV packs and range-extended 'big battery + small tank' are trending.

Into 2027, the marginal lift from higher kWh/vehicle fades and may only offset lower auto volumes. Purchase tax stays at a half-rate of 5% through 2027, returning to 10% in 2028, which could pull forward some 2027 demand, but a conservative case sees CATL's domestic passenger EV battery sales roughly flat in 2027.**Commercial EVs:** Heavy-truck EV penetration rose from 13% in 2024 to 34% in Q3, with ~220 kWh per vehicle, over 3x passenger EVs (~69 kWh). The 'high kWh leverage' is obvious; YTD CATL commercial installs are +53% YoY, with 60–70% share.

With high diesel prices, subsidies, and lower operating costs, EV trucks' payback has shortened to under ~2 years. Dolphin Research expects CATL's domestic commercial EV battery sales to grow ~50% in 2027.

**b. China ESS: ~15–20% growth in 2027; shipment vs. installs is the key debate**

In 2026, ESS is the fastest-growth sector: Jan–Aug domestic ESS cell sales were +98% YoY, GS estimates +80% for the full year, and the company sees domestic ESS pull-ins at ~300–350 GWh. But domestic ESS installs grew only 29%, with install/sales ratio down from ~59% in 2025 to 21%, as projects were delayed into 2027 pending provincial rules; as a lead indicator, domestic ESS tenders were +86% YoY in Jan–Aug but slowed to +15% in Sept.

Hence, Dolphin Research expects domestic ESS demand growth to slow markedly to ~15–20% in 2027 from 80%+ in 2026.**c. Overseas: ESS ~+30%, EV ~+25%, the main growth engine in 2027**

**Overseas ESS:** YTD storage deployments ex-China are +84% YoY; Jan–Aug China ESS cell exports were +42% YoY. Higher gas and power prices, energy security, and AI power demand turn ESS from optional to essential, with ~30% growth expected in 2027 ex-China.

**Overseas EVs:** Jan–Sept, 9 European countries sold 2.88 mn NEVs (+39% YoY; Sept +51%, penetration 43.2%). Geely and Great Wall NEV exports were +162%/+42% YoY.YTD CATL installs in Europe were +32% YoY, and +158% in other overseas regions. Dolphin Research expects overseas EV battery demand to grow ~25%.

**Overall, Dolphin Research expects global Li-ion demand to rise ~20–25% in 2027: China EV ~+15%, China ESS ~+15–20%, overseas EV ~+25%, overseas ESS ~+30%.**

**On the call, management also saw 20–30% industry growth in 2027 as 'achievable and not high'.**

**d. Supply: utilization to slip**

By estimates, effective industry capacity may rise ~40% in 2027, ahead of the ~20–25% demand growth, with utilization falling from ~80% to ~70% but still above ~60% in 2023–2024.

Unlike the previous cycle, Gov. approvals for new capacity have tightened (centralized approvals and tiered enterprise management). New additions should tighten from 2H 2027; CATL is also acquiring approved capacity (e.g., Geely's Chongqing Yaoning).Assuming 1,225 GWh shipments in 2027 (+24% YoY), a sales/production ratio of 1.05–1.1, and year-end capacity of 1,700–1,800 GWh, utilization would be ~72–79%. That is well below ~95% in 2025 and 1H26 but within a normalized range.

**3) 'De-CATL-ization' has limited direct shipment impact, but pricing and share pressures are real**

Q3 saw a flurry of 'de-CATL-ization' headlines: Xiaomi's new models added CALB and Sunwoda as second sources; Li Auto said in-house batteries will roll across the lineup — the 2026 i6 debuts a self-developed 5C pack, with the next-gen MEGA and i9 gradually switching from CATL as capacity ramps; Li Auto also formed a JV with Sunwoda; Geely's ZEEKR and others are diversifying supply.

**But the direct shipment impact looks limited:**

**a. Small single-customer exposure:** Per GGII, Xiaomi and Li Auto each account for only ~7–8% of CATL's YTD domestic traction shipments. Domestic EVs are <35% of total shipments, so any single client impacts just ~2–3% of total (20–30 GWh).

**b. Domestic share is slipping; marginal pricing/share pressure is real:** CATL's domestic install share peaked at 47.7% in 1Q26 and fell for two quarters to 41.3% in 3Q26. Ex-BYD share dropped from 57.3% to 51.8%.

Global share is steady at 39.4% in Jan–Aug (39.1% in 2025). Not all flows are outflows — customers like Nio's ONVO and GAC Aion are returning.For OEM in-house packs, capex and utilization are key hurdles; Geely's underutilized capacity is a case in point.

**That said, domestic price wars squeeze OEM margins, and overseas profits are thinning as NEV export VAT rebates drop from 13% to 9% from Apr 2027. OEMs will press harder on price; a second source both splits share and serves as leverage, narrowing CATL's pricing latitude on the remaining volume.**

Meanwhile, CATL is leaning on product cycles to offset churn: ultra-fast charging (Gen-3 Shenxing/Kirin) and battery swap (integrated stations, 'chocolate' battery) with a 100k-site network by end-2028. Sodium-ion ramps for light commercial and entry cars, condensed-matter batteries target premium, and ESS extends into system integration.

**4) Taxes + rebates: the biggest structural drag on 2027 NP**

From Q3, unit profitability is under interim pressure from the resumed consumption tax (2% rate applied for one month) and fully reflected export VAT cuts, taking NP/Wh down to ~RMB 0.082 (−27% YoY). Into Q4 2026 and 2027, two policy headwinds persist:

**a. Battery consumption tax resumes:** From Sept 2026, the 2% tax was reinstated and will rise to 4% in Sept 2027 (booked in taxes and surcharges).Given 30%+ shipments are ex-China (tax-exempt), the core swing factor is pass-through domestically.

On 2027 math (first 8 months at 2%, last 4 months at 4%, ~2.7% weighted Avg.), assume total shipments of 1,225 GWh with ~70% domestic.

**Bear case (no pass-through):** pre-tax drag ~RMB 14.0 bn, post-tax ~RMB 12.0 bn, or ~RMB 0.010/Wh NP hit.**Base case (50% pass-through):** post-tax drag ~RMB 6.0 bn, or ~RMB 0.005/Wh NP hit.

**b. Export VAT rebate to zero:** After the cut from 9% to 6% in Apr 2026, the rebate goes to zero from Jan 2027. Irrecoverable input VAT will be booked in COGS, directly hitting the strongest-profit overseas business (>30% of revenue). Using RMB 225.0 bn of 2027 export battery revenue and a 2026 weighted Avg. 6.75% rebate, lost rebate adds ~RMB 15.0 bn of costs (post-tax ~RMB 13.0 bn).

**Bear case (no pass-through): NP/Wh −~RMB 0.011, ~13% NP drag in 2027.Base case (20–50% self-absorption):** Since the policy hits all China cell makers, with higher-cost Korean/Japanese peers and more flexible pricing for overseas ESS, pass-through is likely easier than the domestic consumption tax. If CATL absorbs only 20–50%, the post-tax hit is ~RMB 2.6–6.5 bn, or −RMB 0.002–0.005/Wh (−3–6% of NP).

**Combined impact:** In an extreme no pass-through case, 2027 post-tax NP would be cut by ~RMB 25.0 bn (−~RMB 0.020/Wh), taking NP/Wh below RMB 0.08 (to ~RMB 0.075/Wh).

**Under a base case, the post-tax drag is ~RMB 8.5–12.5 bn, −RMB 0.007–0.010/Wh, implying 2027 NP/Wh at ~RMB 0.085–0.09.**

**Valuation:**

On base assumptions, Dolphin Research models 2027 shipments +24% to ~1,226 GWh and NP of RMB 104.2–110.0 bn (+9–15% YoY). Using ~15x forward PE, the value is ~RMB 1.56–1.65 tn, roughly in line with the HK market cap, leaving limited upside.

In a bear case (company shoulders most taxes, weaker domestic demand), 2027 NP is ~RMB 92.0 bn (−~4% YoY; NP/Wh ~RMB 0.075/Wh).Using 11–12x forward PE (2024 trough), the value is ~RMB 1.0 tn, ~16% downside vs. the ~RMB 1.2 tn A-share market cap, with even more downside vs. HK.

Given NP/Wh failed to hold RMB 0.09–0.10 in Q3 and has already slid to ~RMB 0.08, with full-quarter consumption tax in Q4 still pending customer cost-sharing, the base-case HK valuation looks largely fair with limited upside. Under bear assumptions, A-shares still have ~16% downside; risk-reward is not favorable near term.

Dolphin Research suggests waiting for NP/Wh stabilization: 1) the outcome of consumption tax cost-sharing talks; 2) whether NP/Wh can hold ~RMB 0.08 in Q4 with a full-quarter tax; 3) discussions with upstream materials suppliers from Dec on 2027 production plans.

If the A-share market cap falls toward ~RMB 1.0 tn (bear-case valuation), downside would be mostly priced with ~55–65% recovery back to base-case valuation, offering a potential buy-the-dip setup.Catalysts for valuation repair include finalized tax-sharing, a stable lithium price, ESS orders and schedules beating, and easing geopolitics overseas (US exclusion clauses, Hungary compliance review).

**Details below:**

**I. Revenue miss, GPM down noticeably**

**1\. Revenue growth remained strong on seasonality and pull-ins**

Q3 2026 revenue was RMB 165.2 bn (+58.6% YoY), ~5.6% below the RMB 175.0 bn consensus.

Growth was shipment-driven (+~58% YoY) while revenue/Wh was ~RMB 0.57, flat vs. Q2.

**1.1 Shipments: broadly in line**

Q3 shipments recognized as revenue were 260+ GWh (+~58% YoY, +~12% QoQ), in line with the ~260 GWh market view. Specifically:

**i) EV batteries ~195 GWh, +~48% YoY**, again far outpacing domestic NEV retail sales (Jan–Sept −13% YoY), widening the scissors spread.Drivers were a) higher kWh per vehicle, b) strong exports, c) commercial EV 'high kWh leverage', and d) pull-ins ahead of the consumption tax. The Sept 1 tax triggered early deliveries, boosting Q3 (esp. Jul–Aug) but pulling forward some Q4 demand.

**ii) ESS kept outgrowing traction:** Q3 ESS shipments were ~65 GWh, nearly doubling YoY.

Benefits came from grid-parity solar+storage, AIDC co-located storage, and incremental capacity at the Jining, Shandong base (100+ GWh planned, focused on 587 Ah large cells). On products, the company is moving from DC cells to AC systems and expanding into data center power, with client KPIs shifting from RMB/Wh to lifecycle LCOE.

**1.2 RMB/Wh flat QoQ as mix offsets lithium linkage**

Lithium carbonate fell 39% since May through end-Sep, yet Q3 revenue/Wh was ~RMB 0.57, flat QoQ, due to:

i) ESS mix upgrade: project pricing does not adjust with subsequent lithium moves, and the shift toward AC systems raises value per Wh, offsetting EV-linked cuts.ii) EV lithium linkage: with a 1–2 month lag, and given a brief rebound in Jul–Aug, Q3 Avg. reflected limited cuts. The sharper Sept drop (spot already below RMB 125k/tonne in early Oct) will show more in Q4 ASPs.

**2\. GPM fell QoQ for a third straight quarter**

Q3 blended GPM was 20.7%, below the ~21.8% street and down ~250 bps QoQ from 23.2%. Including impairments, GPM was ~19.7%. RMB/Wh GP fell ~11% QoQ from ~RMB 0.148 to ~RMB 0.131.

**Dolphin Research cites three main reasons:**

i) Mix and rush orders: more lower value-add and simpler builds, plus more rush deliveries. Profitability varies by client and system complexity. Management sees this as a one-off and a bigger driver than taxes.ii) High-cost inventory consumption plus ASP linkage: materials stocked in Q2 were consumed as lithium fell and EV ASPs adjusted down, causing a short-term 'high cost, low ASP' mismatch.iii) Export VAT rebate cut: from 9% to 6%, fully reflected in Q3 on a shipment basis, raising COGS.

For non-linked upstream materials, management noted copper foil and others were less impactful than feared, with pass-throughs on most metals and pending renegotiations for the remainder.

**II. Expansion peak brings marginal pressure: cash flow strain and inventory risk**

**i) Utilization likely eased**

While Q3 utilization was not disclosed, management said capacity was very tight in 1H, then eased in Q3 as projects launched (1H utilization was 95%). That implies some utilization slippage.

**ii) Capex hit a record high**

Q3 capex was ~RMB 17.1 bn (Q2 ~RMB 12.7 bn), up ~35% QoQ and well above the 2021–2022 peak of ~RMB 13.0 bn per quarter.

CWIP was ~RMB 43.0 bn at quarter-end, up ~RMB 10.0 bn QoQ, with fixed assets up ~RMB 14.7 bn.Management cited the largest recent additions in CWIP and transfers, driven by tight capacity in 1H and the capitalization of many battery-swap stations this quarter.

As of mid-year, capacity under construction was ~764 GWh, up ~1.4x from ~321 GWh at end-2025, expected to ramp over the next 1–2 years.Overseas, Germany (14 GWh) and Hungary Phase I (39 GWh) are in production; Phases II and III depend on progress. Spain (50 GWh) is underway; the Indonesia value chain has started up.

**iii) Inventories climbed, raising write-down risk**

Inventory was ~RMB 144.8 bn, up ~RMB 14.0 bn QoQ (Q2-end RMB 130.8 bn), with ~96 days of inventory, flat QoQ.

Management said the increase reflected higher shipments, not demand issues. Goods dispatched grew as the ESS mix shifted toward AC systems, with longer recognition cycles overseas.But rapid lithium deflation raises write-down risks on high inventory.

**iv) Operating cash flow dropped sharply**

**Cash flow is a key concern:** Q3 operating CF was only ~RMB 1.4 bn (Q2 RMB 26.5 bn), diverging sharply from ~RMB 22.5 bn of NP, as working capital swelled.

AR and notes rose ~RMB 24.2 bn QoQ, AP and notes fell ~RMB 22.1 bn, and inventory rose ~RMB 14.0 bn, totaling ~RMB 60.0 bn of outflow. Contract liabilities (+RMB 4.2 bn), provisions (+RMB 5.5 bn), and note discounting partially offset, but WC still dragged operating CF by nearly RMB 30.0 bn.

Management cited normalized pay terms to suppliers, prepayments and shorter terms for core partners aiding R&D and expansion, and stocking for next year’s demand. The adjustment should last 2–3 quarters (through 1Q next year), after which CF should normalize.After ~RMB 17.1 bn of capex, FCF was ~−RMB 15.7 bn. Liquidity remains ample with cash and trading financial assets >RMB 430.0 bn, but CATL’s quasi-financing leverage over the supply chain will likely moderate in the coming quarters.

**v) Impairments rose QoQ; pressure persists if lithium stays low**

Q3 impairment losses were ~RMB 1.71 bn (Q2 ~RMB 0.52 bn), ~1.0% of revenue.

Management attributed this to lithium volatility and slightly higher inventories, mainly inventory write-downs during rapid price declines. With inventory still high at ~RMB 144.8 bn at Q3-end, low lithium in Q4 would keep impairment pressure elevated.

**III. NP/Wh fell sharply to RMB 0.08**

Q3 attributable NP was RMB 21.25 bn. With revenue +59% YoY, NP rose only 14.5% YoY and fell 6% QoQ, below the cut consensus of RMB 22–24 bn.

Ex-one-offs, attributable NP was ~RMB 18.86 bn (+~14.9% YoY, −10% QoQ).On shipments of 260+ GWh, NP/Wh was ~RMB 0.082/Wh (Q2 ~RMB 0.097/Wh), down ~15% QoQ.

**Dolphin Research sees four drivers:**

i) GPM contraction on mix, export VAT cuts fully reflected in Q3, and high-cost inventory consumed into falling ASPs.ii) Impairments rose by ~RMB 1.2 bn QoQ to RMB 1.7 bn on rapid lithium declines.iii) The consumption tax from Sept, booked in taxes and surcharges — Q3 taxes and surcharges were RMB 2.21 bn, up ~RMB 1.5 bn QoQ, borne by the company pending cost-sharing.iv) R&D kept rising — continued investments in solid-state, sodium-ion, ultra-fast charging, and AIDC power-compute synergy. Q3 R&D was ~RMB 7.14 bn (Q2 RMB 6.1 bn), at a 4.3% ratio; management intends to maintain R&D intensity.

The core OP we track (GP − taxes and surcharges − Opex − asset/credit impairments) was ~RMB 18.4 bn in Q3 (+~16.6% YoY, −~18% QoQ). The core OPM was ~11.2%, down ~410 bps QoQ.

\<End here>

Risk disclosure and disclaimer: [海豚研究免责声明及一般披露](https://support.longbridge.global/topics/misc/dolphin-disclaimer)

**In-depth research:**

Jul 5, 2025: '[**CATL: HK premium >20%, time for a value reset?**](https://longportapp.cn/zh-CN/topics/31498897?app_id=longbridge&utm_source=longbridge_app_share)'

Jan 23, 2025 company deep-dive: '[CATL through the lens of TSMC: the inescapable cycle](https://longportapp.cn/zh-CN/topics/26752008?app_id=longbridge&utm_source=longbridge_app_share&channel=t26752008&invite-code=4NOXYT&locale=zh-CN&community_badge=1&profile_following_followers_activities=1)'

Jul 14, 2021 deep-dive: '[CATL (II): faith-built rigid foam?](https://longbridgeapp.com/topics/925062)'

Jul 7, 2021 deep-dive: '[CATL (I): what underpins a trillion-RMB valuation?](https://longbridgeapp.com/topics/913915)'

**Earnings trackers:**

Jul 24, 2026: 'CATL: NP/Wh slipped — still the class leader?'

Apr 16, 2026: '[CATL: the unshakable TSMC of the energy era!](https://longbridge.cn/zh-CN/topics/39953210?app_id=longbridge&utm_source=longbridge_app_share&share_track_id=171341be-4bb1-417f-8f9c-f7463c7a8cee&invite-code=4NOXYT&locale=zh-CN&community_badge=1&profile_following_followers_activities=1)'

Apr 16, 2026: '[CATL (1Q26 Trans): Q2 schedules still full; utilization steady at 85–90%](https://longbridge.cn/zh-CN/topics/39953306?app_id=longbridge&utm_source=longbridge_app_share&share_track_id=0b7cfca6-a030-41ef-8cd8-19dd2ce9566a&invite-code=4NOXYT&locale=zh-CN&community_badge=1&profile_following_followers_activities=1)'

Risk disclosure and disclaimer: [海豚研究免责声明及一般披露](https://support.longbridge.global/topics/misc/dolphin-disclaimer)

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> **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**