---
title: "Dolphin Daily | GOOGL and INTC Tumble—More Pitfalls This Week?"
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/dolphin/post/44694445.md"
description: "Good morning! It is Nov 2, 2026 Beijing time. Dolphin Research brings you the global market at a glance.Trading focus: the rebound sparked by last week's Anthropic S-1 lasted less than 72 hours before snapping. The 'Google scare' returned, with the stock down over 10% in a day. Intel's guidance imploded, the stock plunged 28.6% on Fri, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 7.2%.After Fri after-hours, reports said OpenAI cut its new funding round from $30bn to $20bn. Mega-cap prints diverged: Microsoft Azure re-accelerated to 48%..."
datetime: "2026-11-02T00:44:54.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/dolphin/post/44694445.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/dolphin/post/44694445.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/dolphin/post/44694445.md)
author: "[Dolphin Research](https://longbridge.com/en/dolphin.md)"
generator: "portal-rs"
---

# Dolphin Daily | GOOGL and INTC Tumble—More Pitfalls This Week?

Good morning! It is 2026-11-02 Beijing time, and Dolphin Research brings you a one-glance view of global markets.

**Trading highlights**: The rebound sparked by Anthropic’s S-1 lasted less than 72 hours. Google’s old ghost story returned, dropping over 10% in a day, Intel’s guide collapsed with a -28.6% Friday move, and the SOX fell 7.2%. Post-close Fri., chatter said OpenAI cut its new round from $30bn to $20bn.

Megacap prints diverged: Microsoft’s Azure accelerated to 48%, while Google’s search and cash flow disappointed and Amazon’s capex surged. The memory bull-bear battle continues, with SanDisk’s price hikes locked in by long-term deals.

**Macro sentiment**: The Fed held on 10/28 at 3.75%–4.00% with two dissenters favoring a hike. The Nasdaq 100 fell 3.5% Fri., and Oct. was -5.3% for the Nasdaq, its worst month since Mar-2025.

**Key movers**: Chips led declines (AMD -10.9%, Qualcomm -11.1%, Coherent -11.3%), and New Cloud fell about 10%. Only a few bucked the tape such as Rivian (+6.2%) and Tencent (+1.6%).

**Near-term watch**:

Apple and Palantir report tonight.

U.S. midterms on Tue., with AMD and Arista after-hours.

ARM and Qualcomm report Wed., and Anthropic will update Oct. ARR mid-next week.

$Intel(INTC.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $AMD(AMD.US) $Broadcom(AVGO.US) $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US) $Amazon(AMZN.US) $Microsoft(MSFT.US) $Sandisk(SNDK.US) $Micron Tech(MU.US) $Marvell Tech(MRVL.US) $Lumentum(LITE.US)$Congress Intermediate Bond ETF(CAFX.US) $Oracle(ORCL.US) $Coreweave(CRWV.US) $Reddit(RDDT.US) 

Move ranges: for U.S. stocks and global assets, 10/30 (last Fri.) close vs. prior trading day.

**1\. Reflexivity in AI trades starts to reverse: OpenAI cuts funding, labs’ ARR back in focus**

**Nebius -10.4% / CoreWeave -9.7% / IREN -8.8% / Oracle -6.4%**

Early last week, Anthropic’s S-1 plus funding momentum and positive Oct. ARR signs cleared near-term AI overhangs, but the repair lasted under 72 hours. Post-close Fri., reports said OpenAI trimmed its new round from $30bn at a $1.4tn valuation to $20bn at a $1.25tn valuation, and the WSJ said only about $11bn is currently committed.

Ramp Oct. data: Anthropic enterprise spend +17%, tokens +40%, unit price -16%, with spend share rising from 54% to 58%. OpenAI spend fell 2%, with share down from 42% to 38%, the reverse of Sept.’s setup.

Per agency flashes, Anthropic’s Q3 revenue was about $16.8bn, with QoQ growth slowing to about 45%, and it has delivered Adj. operating profit for two consecutive quarters.

Institutions focus on total labs’ ARR, not just Anthropic. Estimates put Anthropic’s hard commitments at about $430bn and OpenAI at about $720bn, 1.7x Anthropic, but with weaker cash, expected funding and 2027 GP.

Two paths: much of the downside is priced in, the election clears, Iran cools, Anthropic’s Oct. ARR and listing reopen the funding window. Or reflexivity flips — less funding for OpenAI → slower buildout → lab ARR worries → pricier funding → bearish for semis.

External constraints are rising too: per WSJ, CDS for Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Oracle rose to their highest since 2021. Candidates advocating a pause on data centers could win up to 15 governorships in Tue.’s midterms, and SemiAnalysis estimates an extreme-case risk to 30.3GW of 2028 capacity.

**2\. Intel’s guide collapsed, nearly -30% in a day, dragging the entire chip cohort**

**Intel -28.6% / Qualcomm -11.1% / AMD -10.9% / ARM -10.0% / Applied Materials -7.5% / ASML -6.6% / TSMC -5.9% / Broadcom -5.5% / Nvidia -4.2%**

Intel’s Q3 was roughly in line, but Q4 revenue guidance of $15–16bn vs. the Street at ~$17bn and GPM of 37% vs. ~41.8% disappointed. Client CPUs are expected to fall over 20% QoQ, and Israel’s Fab 28 explosion halted production about two weeks, hitting revenue by about $300mn.

PC weakness stems from memory price hikes lifting system cost and capacity shifting to HBM, plus channel destocking. The company also said 2027 capex will be materially above 2026’s $20bn, and FCF will not turn positive next year.

The bull angle: Intel’s Data Center & AI revenue was about $7.3bn in Q3, up nearly 80% YoY. The company is reallocating capacity to server CPUs and says supply remains tight into H1-2027.

**Dolphin view: The hoped-for ‘DC keeps scaling, PC stabilizes’ has fallen apart. With memory pushing up system cost, CPU price hikes are uncertain, and confidence now depends on upside from server CPUs and foundry.**（[*First Take*](https://longbridge.cn/zh-CN/dolphin/post/44646109)）（[*Earnings review*](https://longbridge.cn/zh-CN/dolphin/post/44651698)）

**3\. Memory bull-bear still battling: SK Hynix scaling vs. SanDisk price hikes locked by LTAs**

**SanDisk -13.5% / SK Hynix -7.1% (Seoul; U.S. ADR -8.0%) / Seagate -8.0% / Western Digital -7.4% / Micron -5.3%**

SanDisk beat the high end on revenue, GPM, and EPS, but the beat narrowed from about 9% last quarter to about 2%. GB ASP rose only ~8% this quarter, less than half the industry contract price hikes (~+20%), and about half of FY27 bits are under LTAs with monthly price locks and bands.

SanDisk highlights: $5.7bn FCF this quarter, LTA orders extended to 2030, first HBF die taped out, and an 8-for-1 split announced. The stock popped post-print then faded.

Supply is the hot debate: Hynix guided Q4 DRAM bit shipments +25% and lifted full-year growth from low-20s to ~30%, with 2025 capex up 50%+. Of Samsung’s KRW 84tn spend, KRW 46tn goes to memory.

Bears note Wall St. models only ~25% bit growth in 2027 and fear others follow suit. Bulls point to LTAs, valuation, and new CPU-driven demand.

China corroborates: Changxin Memory booked RMB 269bn revenue for 9M, +739% YoY, with Q3 GPM at 89.5%. It said DRAM undersupply persists, is negotiating LTAs with top customers, and expects to launch 4F² DDR5 by year-end.

The counterpoint: LTA customers will not always tolerate 85%+ GP and will squeeze when they can. DRAM spot and contract continue to outperform NAND, which explains Micron’s recent outperformance vs. SanDisk.

**Dolphin view: LTAs showed their cost for the first time in SanDisk’s P&L — trading price elasticity for certainty flattens profit curves. This cycle likely extends into late-2027 to 2028, with supply loosening after new capacity ramps in 2028.**（[*Earnings review*](https://longbridge.cn/zh-CN/dolphin/post/44653518)）（[*Hynix earnings review*](https://longbridge.cn/zh-CN/dolphin/post/44585164)）

**4\. Megacap prints diverge: Microsoft confirms acceleration, Google and Amazon dragged by cash flow**

**Microsoft -1.6% / Google -1.4% / Amazon -1.4%**

**Microsoft:** Azure +48%, topping even the most bullish buy-side and guiding 49%–50% next quarter, with revenue, profit, and guide all beating. New bookings were not strong, next quarter GPM compression deepens, and there are one-off costs tied to voluntary departures.

**Google:** Revenue and EPS both missed, paid clicks slowed from 13% to 8%, and FCF was negative by over $9bn. Capex held at $195–205bn, and the stock was down ~10% after-hours at one point.

Institutions estimate AI Mode is about 9% of search with revenue per query at about 20% of classic search, and only turns a positive contributor by Q1-2028.

**Amazon:** AWS +39%, below buy-side at 41%–42%, with $3.75bn QoQ incremental vs. $4.65bn last quarter. Capex was $77.3bn, 31% above expectations, Q3 FCF was -$33.5bn, and long-term debt rose by about $48.1bn, though management said AWS growth is above 40% in both 2027 and 2028.

Per agency flashes, the big three cloud platforms grew revenue +56% YoY in aggregate with backlog at about $1.82tn. But Google and Meta turned negative FCF for the quarter, and if capex rises another 60% in 2027, the four could face a combined FCF gap of about $144bn.

**Dolphin view: Microsoft is the only one with high capex, high growth, and FCF. Google’s issue is selling AI picks and shovels while the cash-machine of search decelerates, and Amazon’s is supply cadence with a short-term mismatch between investment and delivery.**（[*Microsoft review*](https://longbridge.cn/zh-CN/dolphin/post/44615103)）（[*Google review*](https://longbridge.cn/zh-CN/dolphin/post/44612483)）（[*Amazon review*](https://longbridge.cn/zh-CN/dolphin/post/44651352)）

**6\. Reddit: -29.2%**

Users and next-quarter guide both missed. The U.S. saw larger net user losses and Intl net adds slowed.

The core reason is Google raising AI Overview penetration from 40% in Q2 to 80% by late Q3, sending Reddit far less traffic than classic search. The company is pushing web-to-app, and new user retention in the app is above 50%.

**Dolphin view: Revenue will slow sharply near term due to platform migration, while marketing and product opex must rise. Reddit is paying tuition to stop living under others’ roofs.**（[*Dolphin original*](https://longbridge.cn/zh-CN/dolphin/post/44661170)）

**7\. Robinhood: -7.2%**

Q3 missed the elevated bar, but it has outperformed beta for two straight years on new products. Management is betting on Agentic, prediction markets, perpetuals, and tokenization, yet sources of excess growth in 2027 remain uncertain.

Friday’s drop was mainly tied to multiple virtual trading platforms being hacked and funds stolen. 

**Dolphin view: The ability to open accounts and capture funding underpins the valuation premium, but the 2027 new-product baton is uncertain, and we prefer to wait for the premium to fade.**（[*Dolphin original*](https://longbridge.cn/zh-CN/dolphin/post/44661067)）

**1\. The Fed held; focus shifts to midterms this week**

**Fed path**: On 10/28 it held at 3.75%–4.00% in a 10–2 vote, with two favoring a hike. Waller said politics played no role, does not favor forward guidance, and rates will only be discussed at seven meetings in 2027 and six in 2028.

**Dec. hike odds**: On-chain pricing puts Dec. hike probability around 70%. Gold has retraced about 18% from the recent high.

**USTs and liquidity**: The 10Y fell ~6bps last week to 4.93% as haven demand pushed down the long end. But AI financing is getting pricier via the credit channel, with megacap CDS at highs since 2021.

**Midterms**: Voting is Tue., and results bear on data center approvals and AI infra cadence. Institutions lean toward improved certainty post-election, and Texas ERCOT’s audit report due by 12/10 is the next checkpoint on approvals restarting.

**Seasonality**: Historically, Nov. sees the S&P up about 2.2% on Avg., one of the best months of the year.

**2\. More volatile assets (10/30)**

**Nasdaq 100 -3.5%, S&P -1.8%, Dow -1.1%**: The Nasdaq and S&P had their worst day since Jun., and the S&P fell for a third straight week. For the week, the Nasdaq 100 was -1.8% and semis -1%, though portfolio drawdowns far exceeded the indices.

**VIX +12.9% to ~19.4**: Fear rose on Fri.

**Gold -3.3% to ~$3,911, silver -5.9%**: Gold hit a one-year low.

**Crude +2.1%–2.4%**: WTI around $102 and Brent around $112. Bitcoin -0.7% to about $78k.

**3\. Asia open and today’s setup (11/2)**

**Asia open**: Nikkei opened -0.4%, and Korea’s KOSPI opened -1.6%.

**Chip read-across**: U.S. semis fell another 7% Fri. after Asia closed, plus the OpenAI funding cut headline. Japan/Korea/Taiwan chips and equipment open under pressure, and small gains in futures suggest panic has not broadened.

**Memory read-across**: Hynix and Samsung already fell 7.1% and 3.0% Fri., and U.S. memory names fell another 5%–13%. Korean memory remains pressured, though LTAs and capital return are bull cushions.

**A-share compute**: Zhongji Xuchuang fell 5.0% Fri. and Shenghong Tech fell 13.3%, while U.S. optical names Coherent -11.3% and Lumentum -8.6%. A-share optical modules and PCBs stay under pressure, and HK platform names are relatively resilient (Tencent +1.6% Fri.).

**Apple AAPL**｜$5.03tn｜**-1.2%**

As of 10/31, its market cap was about $5.03tn, retaking global No. 1 and surpassing Nvidia. It reports after-hours tonight.

On 10/31, Alibaba announced Qwen will integrate into Apple Intelligence in Mainland China, rolling out with iOS 27.3 in Dec. for China models.

**Dell DELL -10.8% / HP HPQ -9.6% / HPE -6.4%**

Intel’s guide flagged a cliff in PC demand and memory price hikes lifting system cost. Box shippers sold off in tandem.

**Starbucks SBUX**｜$118bn｜**-1.8%**

U.S. same-store sales were flat vs. last quarter, with growth drivers shifting from traffic to ticket and traffic nearly flat ex-closure transfer. Intl was almost stagnant.

FY27 EPS guide was slightly above expectations, and North America comps ease to about 4%.

**Dolphin view: Traffic-driven comps are loosening, and the 32x FY27 PE already prices in margin repair. Without a re-acceleration in traffic, multiple expansion is hard, so we stay on the sidelines.**（[*First Take*](https://longbridge.cn/zh-CN/dolphin/post/44646589)）（[*Earnings review*](https://longbridge.cn/zh-CN/dolphin/post/44648786)）

**Kweichow Moutai 600519.SH**｜**+2.8%**（10/30 close）

Q3 revenue and profit returned to positive growth. But Moutai liquor was nearly flat, and the near-20% price hike this year did not show up in the P&L, with growth driven by series liquors.

Contract liabilities fell to multi-year lows. 

**Dolphin view: The crouch is over, but it still needs the final push — true P&L elasticity from price hikes comes after Feitian’s normalized shipments resume in Q2-2027.**（[*First Take*](https://longbridge.cn/zh-CN/dolphin/post/44665034)）（[*Earnings review*](https://longbridge.cn/zh-CN/dolphin/post/44670715)）

**Coherent COHR -11.3% / Arista ANET -8.3% / Credo CRDO -8.7% / Astera Labs ALAB -10.9%**

They fell with the chip complex. Arista and Astera Labs report Tue. after-hours, and Coherent reports Wed. after-hours.

**Datadog DDOG -11.5% / Cloudflare NET -9.5% / Snowflake SNOW -7.3% / ServiceNow NOW -4.1%**

Software sold off in sync on Fri. ServiceNow plunged by about a third at one point post-earnings, with Q3 EPS and FCF missing and Q4 cRPO guide cut.

Datadog reports Wed. pre-market.

**Coinbase COIN**｜$38bn｜**-10.6%**

Q3 core revenue was roughly in line, and OP beat was mainly due to BTC investment gains and layoffs. The prediction market’s annualized revenue topped $200mn, and Q4 trading and subscription revenue guidance was weaker than expected.

**Dolphin view: Sector beta can carry Coinbase off the bottom, but high rates cap a crypto rebound near term. Longer term, it faces competition from brokers like Robinhood in tokenization and prediction markets.**（[*First Take*](https://longbridge.cn/zh-CN/dolphin/post/44649700)）（[*Earnings review*](https://longbridge.cn/zh-CN/dolphin/post/44653941)）（[*Trans*](https://longbridge.cn/zh-CN/dolphin/post/44645350)）

**SpaceX SPCX**｜$1.83tn｜**-6.4%**

It fell with AI infra. On 10/31, Elon Musk said Colossus 2 will add about 420k GB300s, targeting ~1.2mn Blackwell by year-end.

Google’s data center energy head said space data centers can cost up to 100x ground facilities. 

**Rivian RIVN**｜$18bn｜**+6.2%**

The R2’s first full sales quarter already topped the charts, and full-year delivery guide floor was raised to 67k. Auto gross loss was still $80mn, and gross margin turns positive only on the Q4 exit rate.（[*Trans*](https://longbridge.cn/zh-CN/dolphin/post/44645813)）

**Tencent 0700.HK**｜$440bn｜**+1.6%**（10/30 close）

Reports said DeepSeek completed about RMB 105.5bn of funding (post-money about RMB 615.5bn), with Tencent and CATL each committing RMB 10bn. Hunyuan Hy4 official release dropped.

**Alibaba BABA**｜$244bn｜**-1.5%**

Qwen integrates into Apple Intelligence for Mainland China (Siri, writing tools, and vision), with developer Beta on 11/4. The first batch supports only iPhone 15 Pro and above, and commercial terms were undisclosed.

**Date**

**Event**

**Watch**

**Mon 11/2**

**Apple, Palantir, onsemi after-hours**

**See previews below**

Tue 11/3

U.S. midterms; AMD, Arista, Astera Labs, Super Micro after-hours

Data center pause debate; see previews below

Wed 11/4

Datadog, GlobalFoundries pre; ARM, Qualcomm, Coherent, AppLovin, HubSpot after

Handset and optical demand

**Thu 11/5**

**Lumentum, IREN, Cloudflare, Microchip after**

**Marvell’s acquisition of Lumentum could be announced as soon as this week**

Fri 11/6

Vistra, TeraWulf pre

AI power and miners’ new cloud

**Mid next week**

**Anthropic updates S-1 with Oct. ARR**

**Labs’ ARR and the funding window**

**Apple AAPL｜after-hours 11/2**

**Watch**: Memory price hikes lift system cost, iPhone 18 Pro’s first three weeks of sales are 3.1% above the prior gen, and iPhone Duo is sold out but hinge yield is about 60%. The market wants to see if Q4 GPM guidance can absorb memory inflation.

**Dolphin focus**: iPhone revenue and Duo shipment cadence, GPM guide, and AI partnerships (Qwen’s integration for China models).

**Palantir PLTR｜after-hours 11/2**

**Watch**: Software has been capped by the ‘AI losers’ narrative, and Palantir fell 6.3% Fri. The Street wants to see if U.S. commercial can keep growing fast to support the premium.

**Dolphin focus**: U.S. commercial growth, RPO, and full-year guide.

**AMD｜after-hours 11/3**

**Watch**: Down 10.9% Fri., with Intel calling out a PC cliff weighing on CPU demand. Bulls look to MI450 Helios ramping in 2027 and share gains in server CPUs.

**Dolphin focus**: DC GPU revenue, MI450 delivery cadence, and client CPU guide.

**ARM｜after-hours 11/4**

**Watch**: Down 10.0% Fri. Focus is on AGI CPU backlogs and foundry capacity constraints.

**Dolphin focus**: Royalty revenue growth, DC mix, and AGI CPU progress.

**Recent daily recap**

2026-10-30: [Dolphin Daily | Google tanks, Amazon stalls, Intel shattered: AI cleansing day?](https://longbridge.cn/zh-CN/dolphin/post/44647390)

2026-10-29: [Dolphin Daily | Punish Google, reward Microsoft? Results rule!](https://longbridge.cn/zh-CN/dolphin/post/44610024)

\<End here>

Risk disclosures and statement: [Dolphin Research disclaimer and general disclosures](https://support.longbridge.global/topics/misc/dolphin-disclaimer)

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## Comments (2)

- **MsPow · 2026-11-02T03:14:35.000Z**: Yea


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> **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**