---
title: "Dolphin Daily | SOX plunges 12%, Nasdaq worst in 6Y: AI bloodbath?"
type: "Topics"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/dolphin/post/44857753.md"
description: "Post-election, the market is re-running the math on how many GW of data-center capacity can realistically be built. Top short seller Citrini put out another bearish note, and AI infrastructure plays along with the megacaps got hit hard. A stampede sell-off is underway."
datetime: "2026-11-06T00:39:30.000Z"
locales:
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/dolphin/post/44857753.md)
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/dolphin/post/44857753.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/dolphin/post/44857753.md)
author: "[Dolphin Research](https://longbridge.com/en/dolphin.md)"
generator: "portal-rs"
---

# Dolphin Daily | SOX plunges 12%, Nasdaq worst in 6Y: AI bloodbath?

It is Nov 6, 2026 (Beijing). Dolphin Research takes you through global markets at a glance.

**Trading focus**: Post-election, the street is re-running data center GW build math, triggering an AI stampede. PHLX Semiconductor Index -12.2%, the biggest drop since 2020; Nasdaq 100 -6.4%.

Thirteen AI baskets posted the largest one-day decline since ChatGPT launched.

MSFT scrapped its Nscale UK lease and dropped a Texas expansion option, hitting new cloud and AI power again. China internet names rebounded, while US consumer and pharma served as havens.

**Macro sentiment**: VIX +69.7% to 28.18, with flows into USTs and the 2Y down ~12.5bps to 4.45%. BoE hiked 25bps to 4%, and Fed officials remained hawkish.

**Key movers**: SanDisk -22.3%, Lumentum -18.7%, Micron -17.5%, AMD -17.3%.

**Near-term watch**:

**Tonight**: 21:30 US Oct NFP (Est. +65k), UR 4.2%; Michigan consumer sentiment prelim also due.

**Next week**: Anthropic begins IPO roadshow and may disclose Oct ARR. CoreWeave (11/10), Cisco, Applied Materials, and Nebius (11/12) report.

11/17: NVIDIA earnings.

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) , $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) , $Micron Tech(MU.US) , $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) , $Broadcom(AVGO.US) , $Sandisk(SNDK.US) , $Microsoft(MSFT.US) , $Lumentum(LITE.US) , $Coherent Corp.(COHR.US) , $Arm(ARM.US) , $Qualcomm(QCOM.US) , $AppLovin(APP.US) , $Unity Software(U.US) ，$IREN(IREN.US) , $Coreweave(CRWV.US) , $TENCENT(00700.HK)

**1\. AI stampede: SOX -12%, largest drop since 2020, as the market re-runs 'how many GW can be built'**

**AMD -17.3% / Marvell -16.4% / Lam Research -16.4% / Dell -14.9% / Applied Materials -13.6% / TSMC -10.8% / Broadcom -10.4% / Intel -10.3% / ASML -9.3% / NVIDIA -9.3%**

Sell-side desks called it a violent liquidation: post-election, investors are recalibrating data center GW build forecasts and execution paths. Losses concentrated in data center construction, power, new cloud, and semis.

**Scale**: Nasdaq 100 -6.36%, worst since Mar 9, 2020; **S&P** -4.36%, worst since Apr 2025; **SOX** -12.25%. Tech shed about $2.5tn in market cap in a day.

Thirteen AI baskets saw the largest one-day fall since ChatGPT debuted: optical comms -15.3%, memory -15.2%, inference chips -13.9%. Europe’s semiconductor index -8.6%, the worst since 2020.

**Flows**: Selling was driven more by macro tools, with ETFs 32% of turnover, the highest since Jun. Asset managers continued net-selling semis and AI; the day-ago dip-buying by megacap cloud and defensive tech did not show up.

**Mechanical selling not done**: S&P futures broke below CTA mid-term trigger at 7,549, and foreign desks estimate ~$7.48bn of S&P supply over the next week. VVIX jumped nearly 45 points in a day, the second-largest ever.

**Approvals add more headwinds**: Goldman Sachs said roughly 45% of planned US capacity faces moratoriums, with Texas around 25%. Texas freezes may not lift until end-May next year at the earliest.

Texas Gov. Hinojosa said permitted data centers will be allowed to finish construction, covering projects through 2027 and possibly into 2028. New projects delivering in 2028/29 will need legislation to require taxes, avoid pushing up residential power bills, protect water use, and employ union labor.

Power is the core concern: suspensions could extend into mid-2027, and plants without air permits cannot be built. Financed data center shells could be finished yet lack power; JP Morgan tallied 45 local votes restricting data centers, with 42 passed or likely to pass.

Some viewed a prior-day piece by Citrini as the spark (thesis: capex peak, model commoditization, AI trade over), but the AI narrative was fragile even before this week. Election outcomes were enough to ignite broader selling; SOX closed near session lows, marking the second-worst day on record.

**Deleveraging amplified the drop**: Nomura’s McElligott estimated levered ETF rebalancing at about -$47bn that night (semis -$20.5bn, tech -$17.3bn), second only to 6/5. Retail dumped in the first hour; multi-manager fund Walleye said it will scale back its equities business.

WSJ said OpenAI executives discussed whether to reset next year’s data center capacity expectations after the election.

Foreign desks said semi multiples have compressed about ~50% from the Jun–Jul highs. Per Morgan Stanley, SOX 2Y forward PE is down to 9.9x vs. 30x at the peak two years ago, the first single-digit read since 2011.

Yet 57% of institutional voters see a >25% probability that SOX 2028 EPS declines YoY. Cheap valuation presumes the 2028 numbers still hold.

**2\. MSFT exits leases: no megacap backstop, new cloud and AI power take another hit**

**IREN -17.0% (AH +3.4%) / Bloom Energy -16.4% / Nebius -14.9% / Vertiv -14.0% / CoreWeave -9.8% / GE Vernova -7.5% / Eaton -7.4% / Oracle -6.9% / Microsoft -3.6%**

FT reported Microsoft scrapped an option to more than double an existing compute lease in Texas, after already canceling a $3bn lease with Nscale in Essex, UK.

Bloomberg said MSFT exited three Nscale projects and tightened oversight of Nebius, IREN and Nscale, with delays linked to a Texas site with cable issues for IREN.

Nscale said its $103bn backlog remains intact, but it is sprinting toward a $35bn IPO; major shareholder Aker fell 7.5% that day. Concern is rising over highly levered AI infra operating models.

Megacaps are changing playbooks: Google announced a $17bn first data center in Wyoming, **paired with 702MW fuel cells, taking all power costs**.

OpenAI launched a 'National Community Covenant', pledging no NDAs and not passing project power bills to residents, and said some projects may be delayed.

Data center pricing is shifting from growth to scarcity: built, permitted and under-construction assets carry a premium.

**IREN AH earnings**: revenue $228mn, beating by ~5%, AI cloud revenue $200mn (vs. $184mn), +182% QoQ. Customers’ prepayments cover ~90% of GPU outlays.

But opex and net loss were well above estimates, and the >$4bn ARR target moved from end-2026 to end-Jan 2027, potentially end-Feb. Positives lie in pricing and prepay; compute remains a seller’s market, and funding pressure on new deals is easing. ([*First Take*](https://longbridge.cn/zh-CN/dolphin/post/44855839))

**3\. AI trade broken — back to legacy internet?**

**ARM -13.1%**: Within our coverage, AI assets like ARM’s AGI CPU ship from FQ4, and back-solving guidance implies FY27 royalty growth likely around ~10%. That is effectively an 'implicit downgrade'. ([*Dolphin Research*](https://longbridge.cn/zh-CN/dolphin/post/44804833))

**AppLovin +31.0% / Unity +14.9%**: AppLovin’s Q3 surprise was easing worries over the core mobile ads base, shoring up the valuation floor.

Unity also reported Q3 the same day: Grow revenue +90% YoY, **+31% QoQ; Vector +40% QoQ**, handily beating buy-side/sell-side 21%–27% expectations. Q4 Grow guide $515–520mn; some say Vector’s Q4 guide implies YoY acceleration to ~145%. ([*First Take*](https://longbridge.cn/zh-CN/dolphin/post/44814976))([*Earnings Take*](https://longbridge.cn/zh-CN/dolphin/post/44825244))([*Trans*](https://longbridge.cn/zh-CN/dolphin/post/44828982))

Both beat, but AppLovin’s move was more about expectations and sentiment reset, while Unity showed a tangible inflection in results.

**Airbnb ABNB**｜**-3.5%** (AH **+10.8%**): Q3 revenue +19%, the fastest in over three years, and FY revenue growth guide raised to high-teens, with a new $12bn buyback.

However, 'Buy Now, Pay Later' lift to nights peaked in Q3, Q4 margin guides down slightly YoY, and its in-house travel AI agent will launch in H1 2027. ([*First Take*](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/dolphin/post/44856094?channel=OWSN00030))([*Trans*](https://longbridge.cn/zh-CN/dolphin/post/44855790))

**1\. Flight to safety: USTs rally, VIX spikes; BoE hike (11/5)**

**USTs**: 10Y -~5.5bps to 4.83%, 2Y -~12.5bps to 4.45%, with haven flows into USTs and gold; DXY was roughly flat.

**Hike expectations**: Dec hike odds fell from ~80% to ~70%, implying ~18bps for the year, and ~55–60bps cumulative by 2027.

**Fed**: Cleveland Fed’s Hamaek said rates need to rise to restrictive levels, favoring more frequent, smaller hikes; Richmond Fed’s Barkin backs gradual hikes.

**NFP tonight**: Oct NFP Est. +65k, UR 4.2% (Sep only +29k); initial claims last week 189k vs. prior 195k.

**Oil**: Brent Jan +3.88% to $98.29.

**2\. Assets with big swings (11/5)**

**VIX +69.7% to 28.18**: Nasdaq VIX saw the largest single-day move since COVID, and foreign desks’ vol fear gauge hit 9.3 intraday (max 10).

**Nasdaq 100 -6.36%, S&P -4.36%, Russell 2000 -4.45%, Dow -3.44%**: All 11 S&P sectors closed lower, IT -7.3%.

**High-beta momentum -6.2%**: Now 51% off the Jun high, the largest drawdown in over a decade.

**Bitcoin -5.7% to ~$75.8k, Ethereum -7.8%**: Risk assets deleveraged in tandem.

**Gold +1.0% to $4,102.5**: COMEX gold futures settled at the highest since 10/21.

**3\. Asia open and today’s setup (11/6)**

**Asia open**: KOSPI’s loss widened to 8.8%; Nikkei 225 fell over 5%; MSCI Asia Pacific slid >2.2%; Nasdaq futures turned higher.

**Compute hardware under pressure again**: US optical, memory, and inference chips fell 14%–15% overnight → A-share optical modules and PCB, and KR/TW memory and foundries face pressure; Zhongji Xuchuang fell 7.5% yesterday.

**CCL shift orders**: Panasonic’s Hsinchu CCL plant exploded and caught fire on 11/4, with damaged capacity ~4% of global high-end CCL; restart may take months → Taiwan names like Tachyon, ITEQ, and EMC may absorb orders.

**HK stocks may narrow losses after catching up**: HK closed before the US selloff yesterday → today needs to digest the overnight drop first. Platforms and internet should be more resilient, while hardware tied to US AI capex may see heavier pressure.

**SanDisk -22.3% / Micron -17.5% / Western Digital -17.4% / Seagate -16.3%**

The memory basket -15.2%, the largest one-day drop since ChatGPT’s debut; Bloomberg said Micron has paused the $4.5bn memory wafer fab under construction in Taoyuan, Taiwan, due to local labor disputes.

Supply remains tight: SK Hynix said DRAM and HBM slots are nearly sold out through 2029, Samsung said HBM for 2027 is fully sold, and Micron has allocated >75% of its 2027 HBM capacity.

YMTC paused its Shanghai IPO due to tighter regulation, possibly delayed to H1 2027.

**Coherent COHR**｜$33.4bn｜**-13.0%**

It gave back the +6.5% AH jump from the prior night; next-quarter revenue guide $2.55–2.75bn, with the midpoint above consensus $2.55bn, and FY27 revenue growth guided >60%.

Bears worry CW lasers + silicon photonics could ease InP bottlenecks and weaken pricing power.

**Dolphin view**: The GPM guide raise is the most direct positive this quarter, from 40.6% to >45% in single quarters by end-2028. Light sources are the most certain AI optical assets, but AI assets are now trading off delayed 2028 infra expectations regardless of fundamentals. ([*Earnings Take*](https://longbridge.cn/zh-CN/dolphin/post/44796764))

**Lumentum -18.7% / Applied Optoelectronics -20.9% (AH -13.9%) / Ciena -15.2% / Corning -12.9% / Arista -10.8% / Amphenol -9.3% / Cisco -7.6%**

The optical basket -15.3%, the largest one-day drop since ChatGPT; Applied Optoelectronics fell another 13.9% AH after earnings.

Supply chain chatter says NVIDIA confirmed CPO schedules with Taiwan vendors: next year’s capacity ~15x this year, doubling again by 2028, with >200k units of 2nd-gen Spectrum CPO switches shipping next year.

**Qualcomm QCOM**｜$167.4bn｜**-9.5%**

Automotive helped revenue beat slightly, but YoY decline widened; GPM continued to trend down, and OP fell by half YoY.

iPhone baseband share drops from ~70% in Sep quarter to ~40% in Dec quarter, and will be below ~20% in iPhone 18.

**Dolphin view**: Data center is ramping, and the mid-term 'data center handoff' remains intact, but margins are still falling. With limited near-term catalysts, memory cost pressures and Apple baseband share loss will keep weighing on earnings, with relief at least after FY27 Q2 price hikes. ([*First Take*](https://longbridge.cn/zh-CN/dolphin/post/44791351))([*Earnings Take*](https://longbridge.cn/zh-CN/dolphin/post/44796961))

**Hua Hong Semiconductor 1347.HK**

Q3: revenue RMB 6.706bn, utilization above 100% for five straight quarters, with 12-inch revenue mix rising to 70.7%. First nine months net profit +138.23% YoY.

**UMC -16.7% / Cerebras -11.0%**

AI hardware sold off broadly, and the inference chip basket -13.9%.

**Tesla TSLA**｜$1.36tn｜**-10.8%** / **SpaceX SPCX**｜$1.68tn｜**-9.0%**

High-beta and AI-linked assets were dumped together: the robotics & automation basket -10.32%, and aerospace & satellite basket -8.33%, both at or near the largest one-day declines since ChatGPT.

**Meta META**｜$1.55tn｜**-4.0%** / **Google GOOGL**｜$3.47tn｜**-2.2%** / **Amazon AMZN**｜$2.81tn｜**-2.2%** / **Apple AAPL**｜$5.00tn｜**-1.5%**

The prior day’s dip-buying did not reappear, and megacaps fell another 1%–2% AH (AMZN -2.3%, GOOGL -1.3%). Apple plans ~$7bn in bonds for buybacks, its first IG bond return in ~18 months.

**MercadoLibre MELI**｜**-12.0%**

Q3 revenue $10.75bn (+45% YoY), inline; financial revenue ~3% below consensus, with loan yields down and >90-day delinquencies rising.

**Dolphin view**: The ROI of 'spend for growth' is falling — after the base effect from lower free-shipping thresholds faded, user, parcel, and GMV growth all slowed. Margins fell QoQ for three straight quarters, with no bottom timing given.

**Customer acquisition is shifting to social, with Shopee, Amazon, and TikTok Shop stepping up in Brazil**; e-com monetization recovery is a rare positive, but the financial engine of profits is weakening. ([*First Take*](https://longbridge.cn/zh-CN/dolphin/post/44790546))([*Earnings Take*](https://longbridge.cn/zh-CN/dolphin/post/44795580))

**Monster Beverage MNST**｜**-1.9%**

Q3 international revenue +28.1%, mix up to 47%, and Oct sales still up ~11.6%.

But LME aluminum +36% YoY, GPM -100bps YoY, and management gave no Q4 margin guide; fuel costs and AI digital transformation raised selling expenses, leaving profits unexciting. ([*First Take*](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/dolphin/post/44856259?channel=OWSN00030))([*Trans*](https://longbridge.cn/zh-CN/dolphin/post/44855715))

**Okta -10.4% / CrowdStrike -9.9% / Palantir -9.7% / Palo Alto Networks -9.6% / Cloudflare -8.3% (AH +12.9%)**

The AI software basket -7.77%, also the largest one-day drop since ChatGPT; Cloudflare rebounded +12.9% AH on Q3 earnings.

**Date**

**Event**

**What to watch**

11/6 Fri

US Oct nonfarm payrolls, prelim. UMich consumer sentiment; Vistra, TeraWulf (pre-market)

NFP est. +65K, unemployment rate 4.2%

11/9 Mon

Constellation Energy earnings

First post-election earnings from AI power names

11/10 Tue

CoreWeave, Hesai earnings; Russia-Ukraine-US trilateral talks (Abu Dhabi, through 11/11)

See earnings preview below

**11/12 Thu**

**Cisco, Applied Materials, Nebius, SMIC, Cerebras earnings**

**See earnings preview below**

**From next week**

**Anthropic IPO roadshow**

**May disclose Oct ARR: bulls want $78bn+ (Sep ~$70bn); passing bar ~$75bn**

11/17 Mon

Nvidia earnings

Commentary on 2027 orders and supply

**CoreWeave CRWV｜11/10**

**Watch**: Down ~19% over two days; after MSFT exit and Nscale cuts, the market wants to know if new cloud contracts and financing are loosening too.

**Dolphin focus**: Backlog and new signings, margin and interest expense (we previously said margin inflection has appeared, with interest rising in tandem).

**Nebius NBIS｜11/12**

**Watch**: Fell 14.9% yesterday; investors saw Nebius as more exposed to short-term rental pricing, potentially benefiting as compute tightens. We will see if earnings confirm this divergence.

**Dolphin focus**: Signed power and ARR progress, short-term rental pricing, financing plans.

**Cisco CSCO｜11/12 AH**

**Watch**: Fell 7.6% yesterday; Morgan Stanley cut to Equal-weight on 11/5 and trimmed TP to $120 from $135.

Morgan Stanley’s channel checks point to demand pull-forward and mid-market slowdown, with cloud AI hardware potentially diluting product GPM ~210/90bps in FY27/28.

**Dolphin focus**: AI infra orders, megacap cloud mix, margins.

\<End here>

**Recent Daily Recap**

2026-11-05: [Dolphin Daily | Election 'Shock': Megacaps Party, Infra Hurts — One Gov., Two Chambers, One Market?](https://longbridge.cn/zh-CN/dolphin/post/44791955)

2026-11-04: [Dolphin Daily | AI Beats Finally Rally! Racing the Texas Vote 'Life-or-Death'?](https://longbridge.cn/zh-CN/dolphin/post/44747153)

Risk disclosure and statement: [Dolphin Research Disclaimer and General Disclosures](https://support.longbridge.global/topics/misc/dolphin-disclaimer)

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## Comments (3)

- **Joanne73 · 2026-11-07T02:46:25.000Z**: Y
- **JSY · 2026-11-06T23:13:08.000Z**: very good
- **新用户_WXPI3 · 2026-11-06T01:06:57.000Z**: It fell too hard


---
> **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**