TSMC's 2026 CoWoS advanced packaging capacity is reportedly sold out

Summary

TSMC's CoWoS advanced packaging capacity for 2026 is reportedly fully booked due to surging AI and HPC demand . Despite plans to expand monthly capacity to 115k–140k wafers by late 2026—a 150% increase from early 2025—a supply gap of roughly 30% persists TechNews. Nvidia has secured over 60% of this total capacity, leaving competitors like AMD and Broadcom to scramble for the remainder .

Impact Analysis

So basically, the AI trade has shifted from 'who has the best chip' to 'who has the best relationship with TSMC.' If 2026 capacity is already sold out by May 2026, we’re looking at a physical ceiling on AI growth . The interesting part isn't just the shortage; it's the concentration. With Nvidia locking in over 60% of total CoWoS supply , they’ve effectively built a moat out of silicon and substrate that competitors can't cross regardless of their R&D budget.

I’d read this as a massive green light for OSATs like ASE and Kyec, who are picking up the spillover as TSMC focuses on the highest-margin 'mega-customers' money.udn.com+ 2. Market's missing that even with a 150% capacity hike, the 30% deficit means pricing power remains entirely with TSMC, supporting their 10%+ revenue contribution from packaging money.udn.com. Technically, the stock is in a strong uptrend with a MACD golden cross , but the real alpha might be in the equipment and material providers (like SiC for thermal management) needed to pull off this unprecedented 3x expansion Zhitong. Watch for the transition to CoPoS in 2028 as the next long-term pivot TechNews.