Fed 7% probability of holding rates steady at 66.3%, 9% hike probability rises to 50%

Summary

As of July 1, 2026, CME FedWatch data indicates a 66.3% probability that the Fed will maintain current interest rates in July, while the probability of a 25bps hike by September has risen to 50% 钛媒体快讯. This hawkish shift is largely attributed to new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s policy stance and persistent core inflation concerns China Finance Online+ 2.

Impact Analysis

So, we’re seeing a classic ‘hawkish wait-and-see’ play here. The market is leaning toward a July pause at 66.3%, but don’t let that fool you—the momentum is clearly shifting under new Chair Kevin Warsh 钛媒体快讯+ 2. This isn’t the old Fed; Warsh is signaling a pre-emptive strike against inflation rather than waiting for ‘overwhelming’ data to confirm a trend Sina Finance.

The 50% odds for a September hike tell me the market is finally waking up to the reality of a more aggressive regime, especially with core inflation staying sticky and geopolitical risks propping up oil JIN10+ 2. While Warsh was cagey at Sintra, his refusal to rule out July is a signal in itself China Finance Online.

Bottom line: The market might be underpricing a July surprise. If this week’s non-farm payrolls come in hot, that 33% chance of a July hike is going to gap up fast Sina Finance+ 2. I’d be looking to stay long the Dollar and remain wary of gold, which is already hitting seven-month lows as yields surge benzinga_article+ 2.