Trump says U.S. inflation is very low at Montana rally

Summary

At a Montana rally on October 15, Trump said US inflation is very low, while the same-day September inflation report showed prices rising significantly and wages falling, highlighting second-term economic challenges and supporter pressure.MSN His comments fit a broader pattern of claiming prices are far below Biden-era levels and falling rapidly, despite August inflation at 3.4% and officials warning inflation remains too high, possibly requiring hikes.

Impact Analysis

So the headline is not really an inflation update; it is a political tell. Trump is trying to reframe a bad macro print—September prices up sharply and wages down—by saying inflation is very low, which suggests the White House is worried about the consumer narrative, especially with approval at a second-term low and his 2024 win tied to lowering inflation.MSN For markets, the gap between rhetoric and data matters. If officials still see inflation as too high and hint at hikes, while the President pushes for 1% rates, policy credibility and rate-path uncertainty rise. That favors higher term premium, more volatility in duration, and defensive positioning in consumer staples/discretionary where wage pressure bites. Gold gets optionality from inflation-stickiness plus policy noise, but I would not chase it unless real yields fall. Bottom line: this is a political signal with macro consequences—don’t fade the data.