---
title: "US stocks rose 1%, Bitcoin surged 10% before sharply pulling back, Brent crude oil fell below $90, and long-term bond yields rose 10 basis points."
type: "News"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/100041556.md"
description: "Another Federal Reserve voting member supports no rate hike, and the market is betting that the probability of a rate hike this year is less than 30%. Optimistic sentiment from corporate third-quarter reports drove the US stock market higher throughout the day, with Chinese concept stocks rebounding from a one-week low. After falling nearly 3%, NIO shares turned positive with a 0.6% gain, while TAL Education Group rose nearly 7%. Lulu Lemon saw a surge of over 10%, while Moderna, BioNTech, and other COVID-19 vaccine stocks fell 6% to multi-year lows, but Pfizer rebounded. US bond yields hovered near a one-week high, and the US dollar retreated from a one-week high. Offshore renminbi fell below 7.32 yuan and then rose above 7.31 yuan, hitting an eight-year low against the Israeli shekel. After the ETF was approved, Bitcoin briefly rose above $30,000 before falling below this level. Spot gold fell below $1,920, retreating from a three-week high, while oil prices fell more than 1% and European natural gas fell more than 12%, hitting an eight-month low."
datetime: "2023-10-16T20:43:48.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/100041556.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/100041556.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/100041556.md)
---

> Supported Languages: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/100041556.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/100041556.md)


# US stocks rose 1%, Bitcoin surged 10% before sharply pulling back, Brent crude oil fell below $90, and long-term bond yields rose 10 basis points.

This year, FOMC voting member and Philadelphia Fed President Harker stated that if there are no sudden changes in economic data, the Fed should maintain interest rates unchanged. The futures market predicts a probability of over 90% of no rate hike in November and only a 30% probability of a rate hike in December.

The market is waiting for Fed Chairman Powell's speech this week, as well as US real estate and retail sales data. Well-known large companies such as Johnson & Johnson, Bank of America, Netflix, and Tesla will release their earnings reports, which will partially ignite optimism and risk appetite.

Investors are also continuing to pay attention to the impact of the Israeli conflict on the global financial market and the energy industry. It is generally expected that Israel will launch a ground offensive in the Gaza Strip this week. If Iran and others escalate the conflict, it will bring more uncertainty and risk aversion.

Inflation concerns have pushed up European bond yields. ECB President Lagarde stated that she is paying attention to the inflation risk posed by a new round of Israeli-Palestinian conflict through oil prices. Hawkish voting member and President of the German Central Bank, Weidmann, stated over the weekend that inflation is still too high and monetary policy needs to remain restrictive to the economy.

## US stocks rise by about 1%, Lululemon rises by over 10% leading the Nasdaq 100, Chinese concept stocks turn positive during the day, vaccine stocks see deeper declines

On Monday, October 16th, driven by optimism about corporate earnings reports, US stocks opened higher and rose across the board. Within the first hour of trading, the tech-heavy Nasdaq and the Russell small-cap stocks, which are more closely related to the economy, collectively rose by over 1%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose nearly 420 points at its highest and briefly surpassed 34,000 points. Microsoft, Intel, and Nike led the gains. The S&P 500 index held above 4,300 points, with all 11 sectors rising and consumer discretionary and financial sectors leading the way. The "fear index" VIX fell 10% and fell below 18.

At the close, the Dow rose for two consecutive days to a three-week high since September 25th, while the S&P ended a two-day decline and basically recovered from last Wednesday's decline, and the Nasdaq ended a two-day decline and moved away from a one-week low. The Russell small-cap stocks ended a three-day decline and moved away from a five-month low:

> The S&P 500 index closed up 45.85 points, or 1.06%, at 4,373.63. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 314.25 points, or 0.93%, at 33,984.54. The Nasdaq Composite closed up 160.75 points, or 1.20%, at 13,567.98. The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.2%, and the Russell 2000 small-cap index closed up 1.6%.
> 
> ![Image](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/a3be65c4-a29d-4ee1-80fb-14b33530018d.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) US stocks rise by about 1%, with the Nasdaq and Russell small-cap stocks leading the way throughout the day.
> 
> Barclays analysts believe that bond market volatility and Middle East tensions have weighed on the performance of risk assets, but the negative impact can be offset in the short term by corporate earnings reports and dovish comments from Fed officials. Therefore, RBC has raised its annual EPS expectations for the S&P 500 index for the next two years. Despite the rise in US bond yields and oil prices, persistent high inflation, and escalating conflicts in the Middle East, some market participants are preparing for more volatility before the end of the year. However, mainstream Wall Street remains optimistic about a stock market rebound in the fourth quarter, with an average year-end target of 4,392 points for the S&P 500 index and a median target of 4,500 points. However, Goldman Sachs and UBS are bearish on US stocks, predicting that the S&P 500 will fall to 3,900 points by the end of the year.

**Tech giants are rising together**, with Apple nearly erasing its 1% decline. "Metaverse" companies Meta and Amazon are up over 2%, while Google A and Tesla are up over 1%, all rebounding from their lows of the week. Microsoft and Netflix are up 1.5%, reaching one-month highs and moving away from their five-month lows.

 Apple is still down, but it is close to erasing its initial 1% decline.

**Chip stocks are also rising, moving away from their lows of the week**. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is up 1.4% and has broken through the 3,500-point mark. Intel is up 1.6%, while AMD and Nvidia are up over 1%. Arm is up over 2%, returning to a price above its IPO price of $51 and moving away from its all-time low after going public.

**AI concept stocks are mixed**. C3.ai is up 0.1%, Palantir Technologies has erased nearly 4% of its initial decline but is still not far from its low of the week. SoundHound.ai is up over 6%, and BigBear.ai is up over 2%, both moving away from their lows of the past three weeks.

In terms of news, the initial sales of iPhone 15 in China have decreased by 4.5% compared to iPhone 14. Jefferies, a brokerage firm, stated that iPhone has lost its position as the number one smartphone brand in China to Android phones, which will result in lower global shipments of iPhone 15 this year. Morgan Stanley has lowered its target price for Apple from $215 to $210 due to supply disruptions. Apple CEO Tim Cook visited Chengdu. Due to continuous year-on-year revenue growth slowdown over the past two years, LinkedIn, a subsidiary of Microsoft, will lay off nearly 670 employees, affecting its core engineering team.

**Chinese concept stocks rebounded during the trading session**. The ETF KWEB stopped its decline and rose 0.7%, while CQQQ fell 1.4% before closing down 0.3%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) fell 1.7% before rebounding 0.3%, ending its two-day decline and moving away from its low of the week, surpassing 6,500 points again.

Among the constituents of the Nasdaq 100 index, JD.com is up over 2%, Baidu's decline has significantly narrowed to 0.2%, and Pinduoduo is down 0.7%. Among other individual stocks, Alibaba and Tencent ADRs have both stopped their decline and risen 0.4%, Bilibili's decline has significantly narrowed to 0.3%, NIO has rebounded 0.6% after falling nearly 3%, and Li Auto has fallen over 2%, while XPeng has fallen nearly 5%. TAL Education is up nearly 7%, with UBS upgrading its rating to buy, stating that the stock's valuation is attractive and expressing optimism about the rapid profit growth potential of its non-academic tutoring business. Bank stocks rose across the board. The industry benchmark, the KBW Bank Index (BKX) on the Philadelphia Stock Exchange, rose 1.5%, ending a three-day decline and rebounding from a one-week low. On May 4th, it hit its lowest level since October 2020. The KBW Nasdaq Regional Banking Index (KRX) rose 2.5%, rebounding from a one-and-a-half-week low, and on May 11th, it hit its lowest level since November 2020. The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) rose 2.6%, hitting its lowest level since October 2020 on May 4th. Asset management giant JPMorgan Chase, whose third-quarter EPS exceeded expectations, saw its stock rise by more than 6%, marking the largest increase in three months.

Other stocks with significant changes include:

-   Pfizer stopped its pre-market decline and rose by 3.6%, rebounding from a two-week low. Despite significantly reducing its annual revenue and profit outlook due to weakened demand for COVID-19 drugs and vaccines, the brokerage firm Jefferies upgraded its rating to buy, citing attractive buying opportunities.
    
-   However, other COVID-19 vaccine manufacturers all declined. Moderna and BioNTech fell by more than 6%, hitting their lowest levels since November 2020 and March 2021, respectively. Novavax fell by 6% to at least a six-month low.
    
-   Sportswear company Lululemon Athletica rose by more than 10%, marking its highest level in nearly two years since November 2021. It will be included in the S&P 500 index on Wednesday, replacing Activision Blizzard, which was acquired by Microsoft.
    
-   Data security software supplier Varonis Systems rose by 8% to its highest level in nearly 16 months since June last year. Morgan Stanley believes that it will benefit from generative artificial intelligence and has raised its target price and rating to hold.
    
-   "Vietnam's Tesla" VinFast Auto fell by more than 18% to $6.53, hitting a new closing low since its "US shell listing" on August 15th. On August 28th, it reached a new intraday high of $93.
    
-   Manchester United ADR fell by more than 17% in pre-market trading and fell by more than 10% to its lowest level in nearly a year since November last year. After a Qatari billionaire withdrew his acquisition bid, there were reports that a British billionaire was close to acquiring a 25% stake for $1.5 billion, pushing the club's valuation to over $3.3 billion.
    

European stocks rose across the board. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index rose by 0.23%, with retail stocks leading the way with a 2% increase, while healthcare stocks fell slightly against the trend. Oil giant Royal Dutch Shell's stock price hit a new all-time high in the London market, and the Russian stock index rose by more than 1%, while the Polish stock index rose by more than 5.3%.

![Image](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/c2ae627d-cfb7-437b-9441-939fc7f01910.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg)

US bond yields hovered near a one-week high, with the 10-year and 30-year yields rising by 10 basis points. Inflation concerns pushed up European bond yields. Investors are evaluating the prospects of the US economy and interest rate policies, as well as geopolitical concerns. As a result, US bond yields have risen across the board, with yields on 7-30 year bonds increasing by at least 8 basis points.

The two-year yield, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, has risen by over 4 basis points, approaching 5.10%, reaching a one-week high since October 6th. The 10-year benchmark bond yield has risen by a maximum of 10 basis points, approaching 4.73%, while the 30-year long bond yield has also risen by over 10 basis points to 4.88%, both hovering at one-week highs.

 US bond yields hover at one-week highs, with yields on bonds longer than 10 years rising by 10 basis points

Inflation concerns have pushed up European bond yields, with the 10-year German bond yield rising by about 5 basis points to 2.78% at the close, recently stabilizing below 2.8% as a "bottoming out" trend. The two-year yield has risen by nearly 2 basis points, and the 30-year long bond yield has risen by over 6 basis points. The French bond yield has risen by 4 basis points, but the Italian bond yield, which has a deeper debt burden than peripheral countries, has fallen by 1 basis point.

At the same time, the 10-year and 30-year UK bond yields have both risen by about 10 basis points, with the UK benchmark bond yield breaking through 4.48%, approaching the top level since October 10th of 4.53%. The two-year yield has risen by over 6 basis points, breaking through 4.90%, as some members of the Monetary Policy Committee have made hawkish comments.

## **Oil prices fall by over 1%** **breaking away from one-week highs, Brent crude falls below $90** **per barrel, European natural gas falls by over 12%** **breaking away from eight-month highs**

International oil prices have encountered profit-taking, with both falling by over 1%. WTI November crude oil futures closed down $1.03, or 1.17%, at $86.66 per barrel. Brent December crude oil futures closed down $1.24, or 1.36%, at $89.65 per barrel.

The most actively traded WTI December futures fell the most, down $1.32 or 1.5%, hitting a daily low of just below $85, erasing nearly half of last Friday's gains and breaking away from one-week highs. Brent fell the most, down $1.38 or 1.5%, falling below the psychological level of $90.

 Oil prices fall by over 1% breaking away from one-week highs, Brent crude falls below $90 per barrel

Last Friday, both oil prices rose by nearly 6%, resulting in a cumulative increase of 7.5% for Brent and 5.9% for WTI last week. Investors are concerned that Iran will be involved in a new round of Israeli-Palestinian conflicts, which could escalate geopolitical risks that have been reduced since the Russia-Ukraine conflict last year. There is news that the United States will relax sanctions on Venezuelan oil, which has contributed to the decline in oil prices today.

The European benchmark TTF Dutch natural gas fell more than 12%, dropping below 50 euros/megawatt-hour for the first time in eight months since the end of February. ICE UK natural gas also fell more than 11% to 120 pence/therm, after breaking through the 140 pence mark last Friday.

Analysts believe that the new round of Israeli-Palestinian conflict, damage to European natural gas pipelines, and the resumption of strikes at Chevron's LNG plant in Australia have raised concerns about supply disruptions. European natural gas prices soared 41% last week, but are still less than half the price of a year ago.

The US dollar has retreated from its one-week high, falling below 7.32 yuan offshore and rising above 7.31 yuan. Bitcoin has erased its earlier 10% gain.

The US dollar index DXY, which measures against six major currencies, fell 0.4% to 106.20, moving away from its one-week high. Two weeks ago, it reached an 11-month high of 107.34. Analysts believe that the US dollar still has safe-haven buying.

The euro rose 0.4% against the US dollar and remained above 1.05, while the pound, which broke through 1.22 and rose 0.6% against the US dollar, also moved away from its one-week low. The yen against the US dollar remained below 149 and approached the 150 mark, leading to speculation that the Japanese government would intervene to stabilize the currency.

The offshore yuan against the US dollar briefly fell below 7.32 yuan, down more than 80 points from the previous day's close. The decline in US stocks narrowed significantly during the trading session, and it returned above the 7.31 yuan mark, hovering around its one-week low.

The market is closely watching the situation in the Middle East. The Israeli shekel against the US dollar fell below the 4 shekel mark for the first time since 2015, and has hit an eight-year low since last week. It has fallen more than 4% since the outbreak of the new round of Israeli-Palestinian conflict on October 7.

Mainstream cryptocurrencies are rising across the board. Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, briefly erased its earlier 10% gain and fell below the psychological level of $30,000, before rising 5% to trade at $28,600, still reaching a two-month high. The second-largest cryptocurrency, Ethereum, rose nearly 2% and broke through $1,580 to reach a one-week high.

Earlier, there was news that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the listing of iShares' Bitcoin spot ETF. However, iShares' issuer, BlackRock, later clarified that the application for the listing of the Bitcoin spot ETF is still under review by the SEC, causing Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to rise and then fall. Last week, Bitcoin fell by 4.3%, marking its worst performance since August 18th and the first weekly decline in six weeks.

Bitcoin briefly surged by 10% and broke through $30,000, only to quickly erase all gains and rebound in the final trading session.

Spot gold fell below $1,920, ending its three-week high, as the weakening US dollar boosted London metals. However, London copper remained below $8,000.

Gold also faced profit-taking. COMEX December gold futures closed down 0.37% at $1,934.30 per ounce, while silver futures fell over 0.5% and remained below the $23 integer mark.

Spot gold initially dropped by 0.7% during the early trading session in the US stock market and fell below the $1,920 integer mark. It had previously briefly risen by nearly $10 and broke through the $1,930 level. The daily low briefly fell below $1,910, breaking away from its three-week high since September 20th.

Due to strong safe-haven demand and short-covering, gold jumped by 3.4% on Friday, marking its largest single-day gain in seven months and triggering profit-taking. Analysts believe that concerns about a potential escalation in the Middle East conflict will keep gold prices above $1,900 per ounce.

The weakening US dollar boosted London industrial metals. The "Copper Doctor" saw a slight increase, ending a two-day decline but still below the psychological level of $8,000. Concerns about the Middle East crisis and global growth continue to weigh on the market, causing copper prices to fall by 10% since early August.

London aluminum fell by nearly 1%, hitting a new low for the past month and a half. London zinc hovered around its lowest level since early September. London lead rose by 1.5%, basically recovering from the previous week's decline and reaching a four-month high. London nickel slightly rebounded from a two-year low, while London tin reached its highest level this month.

Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, stated that although short positions in copper have been significantly reduced, they still hold an advantageous position, indicating that traders lack confidence in copper prices. He said, "If the Middle East conflict escalates, oil prices may skyrocket, which will increase concerns about an economic recession and overall be unfavorable for metals." However, China's copper imports in September reached a new high for the year, and stronger-than-expected physical demand is expected to support prices.

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