---
title: "Key Macro Charts: Can the double positive factors in the US stock market continue? (2024/10/16)"
type: "News"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/216980534.md"
description: "The U.S. stock market faces a double positive on October 16, 2024. Analysts point out that the S&P 500 Index typically performs well in U.S. election years, with an expected year-end target of 6270 points. However, insider buying is at its lowest level in 13 years, and S&P 500 futures trading volume is unusually low. The dual drivers of profit growth and valuation increase may continue, and the market is currently benefiting from this trend"
datetime: "2024-10-15T14:10:57.000Z"
locales:
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  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/216980534.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/216980534.md)
---

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# Key Macro Charts: Can the double positive factors in the US stock market continue? (2024/10/16)

## Seasonality of SPX

Since 1928, in US election years, the median return of the S&P 500 Index from October 15th to December 31st is +7.04%. Applying this increase to the current level of the S&P 500 Index (5860 points), this means that **it is expected to reach 6270 points by the end of the year.**

## Trading Volume in US Stocks

The extremely low trading volume in S&P 500 futures is very rare in history, usually only occurring in the last few days of the year or around major holidays.

## Insider Alert

Do you know who is not chasing the rise in US stocks right now? The answer is insiders - **the buying volume of executives of S&P 500 companies in the open market is at its lowest level in 13 years.**

## Double Positive

Analysts: As shown in the chart below, **a major driver of strong returns is the dual drive of earnings growth and valuation increase.** Typically, the trends of these two factors are opposite (because prices usually lead earnings), but occasionally they can rise together.

When they both decline, we will face a perfect storm of declining P/E ratios and earnings, leading to super bear markets like in 2008 and 2001; however, when both rise, we often see a "golden girl" rebound similar to 1995 and 2016.

We will wait and see if this trend can continue, but so far, the market has indeed enjoyed a double positive.

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