---
title: "A trader bets $45 million on Trump's victory! For French citizens"
type: "News"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/217938576.md"
description: "After an investigation by the cryptocurrency-based prediction market platform Polymarket, the trader who heavily bet on Trump winning the election has been confirmed to be a French citizen. This user, who has four large accounts, has rich trading experience and a background in financial services. As of Thursday, the implied probability of Trump winning on Polymarket is 61.6%"
datetime: "2024-10-25T21:36:52.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/217938576.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/217938576.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/217938576.md)
---

> Supported Languages: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/217938576.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/217938576.md)


# A trader bets $45 million on Trump's victory! For French citizens

**A trader has invested over $45 million on the prediction platform Polymarket, heavily betting that Trump will win the upcoming U.S. presidential election in less than two weeks.**

Polymarket is a cryptocurrency-based prediction market platform that allows users to bet on the outcomes of real-world events such as elections, economic indicators, or public health issues. The platform uses smart contracts in blockchain technology to ensure transparency and security of transactions.

It is important to note that while Polymarket is headquartered in New York, the platform does not allow U.S. users to participate. Earlier this week, Bloomberg reported that Polymarket is conducting new checks to verify the location of its users, especially those making large bets, to ensure they are outside the U.S.

Following the investigation by Polymarket, the trader mentioned above was confirmed to be a French citizen. Polymarket revealed that this user, who has four large accounts, also has extensive trading experience and a background in financial services.

The largest account among these is under the username Fredi9999. There have been concerns in the past about whether these accounts were operated by a single individual, suspecting that the intention was to influence Trump's chances of winning.

In response to this, Polymarket stated that based on the investigation, it was found that the trader took a directional stance based on personal views of the election. Furthermore, the investigation so far has not found any information indicating that the user manipulated or attempted to manipulate the market. The user has agreed to not open new accounts without notice.

The most popular product on Polymarket is betting on the outcome of the U.S. presidential election. As of now, the total market trading volume for this year's election has reached nearly $2.4 billion.

As of Thursday, the implied probability of Trump winning on Polymarket is 61.6%. On other similar platforms, the implied probability of Trump winning on the Kalshi platform is 59%, and on the PredictIt platform, it is 57%

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