---
title: "The first investment bank to abandon the expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has emerged!"
type: "News"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/219974097.md"
description: "Nomura Securities no longer expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in December, becoming the first global brokerage to suggest a pause in the Fed's rate-cutting cycle. The brokerage anticipates that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points in March and June 2025, maintaining the federal funds rate at 4.125% before next year. Against the backdrop of economic growth and rising inflation, Nomura Securities believes the Fed will pause its tightening cycle. Other brokerages such as Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase still expect a 25 basis point cut next month"
datetime: "2024-11-18T12:03:53.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/219974097.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/219974097.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/219974097.md)
---

> Supported Languages: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/219974097.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/219974097.md)


# The first investment bank to abandon the expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has emerged!

Nomura Securities no longer expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at the policy meeting in December. This makes it the first global brokerage to suggest that the Fed will pause its rate-cutting cycle following Trump's election victory.

Nomura Securities now anticipates that **the Federal Reserve will only cut rates twice more in March and June 2025, each by 25 basis points.** The brokerage maintains its forecast for the Fed's federal funds rate at 4.125% until next year.

The Fed's benchmark overnight rate currently ranges from 4.50% to 4.75%, having been lowered by 75 basis points so far this year.

Meanwhile, other global brokerages, including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase, still expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points next month.

Nomura Securities believes that, in the context of sustained economic growth and the potential for further inflation, policymakers' recent hawkish comments further indicate that the Fed is not in a hurry to cut rates, thus the Fed will pause its tightening cycle next month.

Previously, the Fed had become increasingly hesitant to cut rates following Trump's presidential election victory, which triggered significant political changes.

As the incoming president may push for policies such as tax cuts, increased tariffs, and immigration crackdowns, Wall Street is trying to digest expectations that inflationary pressures may intensify over the next year.

“**We currently expect that tariffs will push up actual inflation before next summer, and the risks lean towards the Fed pausing rate cuts earlier and for a longer duration,**” Nomura Securities stated in a report last Friday.

Data from last week showed that as of October, U.S. consumer prices (CPI) rose 2.6% year-on-year, above the Fed's 2% target but in line with economists' expectations.

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders now see a 34.7% chance that the Fed will pause rate cuts in December.

Nomura Securities expects that **after a potential rate cut in June next year, the Fed will pause rate cuts for an extended period until March 2026.**

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