--- title: "CSC: It is expected that the A-share year-end market will continue, with AI+ as the mid-term main line" description: "CSC expects the A-share year-end rally to continue, believing that easing policies are likely to be strengthened in early next year, with expectations for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest r" type: "news" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/223017686.md" published_at: "2024-12-22T11:16:06.000Z" --- # CSC: It is expected that the A-share year-end market will continue, with AI+ as the mid-term main line > CSC expects the A-share year-end rally to continue, believing that easing policies are likely to be strengthened in early next year, with expectations for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions, leading to further capital inflows into the A-share market. Bond market interest rates are rapidly declining, real estate sales are improving, and there is still room for policy enhancement. Key focus areas include the AI+ industry mainline and related sectors, such as non-bank financials, the real estate chain, and media. The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and falling inflation will impact the external environment for A-shares According to the Zhitong Finance APP, CSC has released a research report stating that bond market interest rates are rapidly declining, and the dual bull market pattern of China's capital market in both stocks and bonds continues. Recent data shows improvement in real estate sales, and overall, there is still room for policy enhancement. The bank believes that loose policies are expected to be further strengthened early next year, with expectations for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions. Funds are likely to flow further into the A-share market, and specific policies from various ministries are also expected to be gradually implemented. It is anticipated that the year-end market trend will continue. Attention should be paid to potential policy beneficiaries, with AI+ being the mid-term industry main line worth continuous tracking. Focus industries include non-bank financials, real estate chain, media, retail, tourism, consumer electronics, construction, etc. Key themes to watch include AI+ and the primary economy. ## CSC's main viewpoints are as follows: **The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut has been implemented, and inflation's decline remains to be observed.** The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut at the December FOMC meeting while maintaining a hawkish stance. The dot plot indicates that future rate cut pace will be more cautious, and there is uncertainty regarding the speed of core PCE inflation's decline. There is some uncertainty regarding U.S. inflation and economic data in 2025, which is one of the external disturbance factors for A-shares. **Improvement in real estate sales, with room for policy enhancement.** On the domestic policy front, the Ministry of Commerce is accelerating the issuance of documents to promote the development of the primary economy, driving consumption upgrades and new consumption models; the central bank has maintained the LPR rate unchanged, but the market has high expectations for interest rate cuts early next year, leading to a rapid decline in bond market interest rates. Recently, the real estate industry has shown signs of improvement, with indicators such as land transaction area rebounding in mid-December, and there is still room for policy enhancement. Attention should be paid to the subsequent policy implementation efforts. **In the context of a low-interest-rate asset shortage, insurance funds may accelerate the allocation of equity assets.** The continued decline in medium- and long-term interest rates may exacerbate the asset-liability mismatch for insurance institutions. With the ongoing promotion of the industry’s "New Year’s Red" in 2025 and steady growth in renewal premiums, along with the continued decline in medium- and long-term interest rates, insurance funds may accelerate the allocation of equity assets by year-end. **The market is active, with a focus on policy direction and the AI+ industry main line.** This week, market trading volume has declined, and the balance of margin financing has slightly decreased, cooling short-term speculative sentiment. However, artificial intelligence remains the market's main line, with the policy-driven effect of "Artificial Intelligence+" becoming prominent, and AI hardware-related sectors performing strongly. New consumption formats are also attracting attention, with the WeChat small store's "gift-giving" feature entering gray testing, injecting new vitality into holiday consumption. Overall, thematic investment rotation is significant, and it is recommended to focus on sub-sectors supported by policies, such as AI hardware and consumption upgrades. **Risk Analysis** The effectiveness of domestic demand support policies is lower than expected; stock market selling pressure exceeds expectations; geopolitical risks; U.S. stock market volatility exceeds expectations ### Related Stocks - [601066.CN - CSC](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/601066.CN.md) - [06066.HK - CSC](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/06066.HK.md) - [601668.CN - CSCEC](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/601668.CN.md) - [002271.CN - ORIENTAL YUHONG](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/002271.CN.md) - [01929.HK - CHOW TAI FOOK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/01929.HK.md) - [603280.CN - Fujian South Highway Machinery](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/603280.CN.md) - [002421.CN - DAS](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/002421.CN.md) - [002375.CN - YASHA](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/002375.CN.md) - [000001.CN - PAB](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/000001.CN.md) - [06110.HK - TOPSPORTS](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/06110.HK.md) ## Related News & Research | Title | Description | URL | |-------|-------------|-----| | 通告 - 關於夢東方集團有限公司（強制清盤中）（於百慕達註冊成立之有限公司）（股份代號：593）取消上市地位 | 香港聯合交易所宣佈，夢東方集團有限公司（股份代號：593）將於 2026 年 1 月 27 日上午 9 時起取消上市地位。該公司自 2024 年 3 月 11 日起已暫停買賣，因未能於 2025 年 9 月 10 日之前復牌。上市委員會於 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/275697408.md) | | 41% 券商去年營收持平 證券業協會調查：8% 公司減人工 | 香港證券業協會調查顯示，41% 券商去年營收持平，8% 公司預計減人工。協會主席鄔奇指出，傳統券商面臨客户流失及競爭加劇，營收增長受壓。建議設立細價股市場以支持中小企，推動 1 股買賣模式以降低投資者成本。調查還顯示，70% 受訪者預計今年 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/275559931.md) | | 聯交所對天譽置業（控股）有限公司（股份代號：59）一名前董事的紀律行動 | 香港聯合交易所對天譽置業（控股）有限公司前董事餘斌作出紀律行動，因其未能配合證監會及聯交所的調查。餘先生未回復證監會的要求，導致聯交所對其作出董事不適合性聲明，認為其不適合擔任該公司或其附屬公司的董事或高級管理職務。此事件強調董事需配合調查 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/275697426.md) | | A 股上市公司紫光股份宣佈終止在港上市計劃 | 內地 A 股上市公司紫光股份宣佈終止在香港上市的計劃。該公司主要從事雲計算和 IT 基礎設施業務。去年 2 月，紫光股份曾選擇法巴、招銀國際及中信建投作為在港第二上市的安排，預計籌集約 10 億美元，但最終未能實現。 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/275716754.md) | | EX.IO 發行本港首個鏈上原生代幣化證券 掛鈎可轉換債券 可二級市場交易 | EX.IO 集團宣佈其合規持牌虛擬資產交易平台 EXIO Limited 已正式上架鏈上原生代幣化證券 EXCB25，允許專業投資者在 OTC 頻道進行場外交易及二級市場買賣。EXCB25 為可轉換優先票據的代幣化證券，具備年化票面息率 5 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/275873188.md) | --- > **Disclaimer**: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.