CICC stated that it expects China's apparent natural gas consumption growth rate to be about 6.2% in 2025. This is mainly based on: industrial fuel gas demand being suppressed by gas prices and competition from alternative energy sources, with demand growth slowing from 24E YoY +5% to 25E YoY +4%; transportation gas demand declining from 24E YoY +32% to 25E YoY +20% due to a high base in 2024; and the scale of storage capacity replenishment remaining relatively stable compared to 2024. It is expected that China's upstream natural gas wholesale prices will stabilize in 2025; at the same time, the trend of deepening downstream market-oriented reforms and tightening industry safety supervision will not change, and the government may continue to promote the large-scale integration of urban pipeline gas to improve the competitive landscape of the industry
