--- title: "Guotai Junan Securities: The trend of domestic demand recovery remains unchanged, focus on dividend + thematic opportunities" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/223622410.md" description: "Guojin Securities released a research report indicating that the trend of domestic demand recovery continues, with the subsidy chain being a certain main line. It is expected that subsidies will be increased in 2025 in areas such as two-wheel vehicles, catering, home textiles, and consumer electronics. Recently, the yield on ten-year government bonds has declined, enhancing the cost-effectiveness of dividend asset allocation. In November, retail sales increased by 3.0% year-on-year, and the sales area of new homes increased by 4.8% year-on-year. U.S. retail sales have been rising continuously, and export demand may grow in tandem" datetime: "2024-12-31T01:52:03.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/223622410.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/223622410.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/223622410.md) --- # Guotai Junan Securities: The trend of domestic demand recovery remains unchanged, focus on dividend + thematic opportunities According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Guojin Securities has released a research report stating that the current trend of domestic demand recovery remains unchanged, and the subsidy chain continues to be the strongest certainty. Looking ahead to 2025, subsidies in areas such as two-wheeled vehicles, catering, home textiles, and consumer electronics will continue to increase. In terms of asset allocation, the recent decline in the yield of ten-year government bonds has improved the cost-effectiveness of dividend asset allocation; liquidity easing and a performance vacuum period have driven active trading in small-cap stocks, suggesting to seize thematic investment opportunities. Meanwhile, in the short term, the slowdown of U.S. dollar interest rate cuts and significant policy uncertainty suggest a focus on brands/products going overseas based on alpha logic. ## **The main views of Guojin Securities are as follows:** **Consumer Macro Strategy** **Domestic Demand:** **Volatility does not change the trend, real estate year-on-year turns positive.** In November, social retail sales grew by 3.0% year-on-year, mainly influenced by the early Double 11 promotion, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 3.9% from October to November, maintaining the overall recovery direction. By industry, categories benefiting from fiscal subsidies, such as home appliances and furniture, continue to grow rapidly. In November, the national new housing sales area increased by 4.8% year-on-year, achieving positive growth. With the introduction of a package of real estate policies, the warming of the sales side has gradually become evident, consolidating the foundation for stabilizing real estate volume and price. **Exports:** U.S. retail growth, U.S. dollar interest rate cuts slow down. In November, U.S. retail sales excluding automobiles and gasoline grew by 3.9% year-on-year, rising for four consecutive months, and export demand may see synchronous growth. In December, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but the pace of subsequent cuts will significantly slow down. According to FedWatch tracking, the market expects a nearly 89% probability that there will be no interest rate cuts in January 2025. **Industry Prosperity Tracking** **Home Appliances:** **① Export Data:** In November, air conditioner exports increased by 34%, refrigerator exports by 9%, and washing machine exports by 1%. **② White Goods Production Data:** In January 2025, the total production volume of the three major white goods decreased by 4.3% year-on-year. Air conditioner production decreased by 1.5% year-on-year; refrigerator production decreased by 6.5% year-on-year; washing machine production decreased by 8% year-on-year. **③ Trade-in Program:** National subsidies drove sales of over 52 million units across eight major product categories, with a cumulative sales amount estimated at about 224 billion yuan, consuming around 42.1 billion yuan in subsidies. **Textiles and Apparel:** From October to November, clothing retail sales grew by 4.3% year-on-year. In December, the drop in temperature combined with the earlier timing of the 2025 Spring Festival has led to an earlier peak season for clothing sales. **Light Industry Manufacturing:** **① New Tobacco:** Smoore International announced an equity incentive plan, with unlocking conditions based on the average market value reaching or exceeding 300 billion/400 billion/500 billion Hong Kong dollars for any consecutive 15 business days from 2025 to the end of 2030. **② Paper Packaging:** 1) Under the catalyst of peak season, the price of corrugated paper has rebounded from the bottom, with January hardwood pulp prices in Asia rising by 20 USD. 2) Jiangxi has issued new consumer electronics subsidies, expanding the scope of 3C subsidies. **③ Light Industry Consumption:** AI glasses company KANAT Optical has received investment from Goertek. **④ Two-Wheeled Vehicles:** Trade-in Program: The national electric bicycle trade-in volume reached 1.023 million units, with the replacement progress accelerating. **Social Services:** **① Hotels:** In December, maintaining a trend of improvement under a low base, in week 51, the national hotel RevPAR year-on-year increased by 0.9%, turning from negative to positive, with ADR down by 1.3% year-on-year and OCC up by 1.3 percentage points, indicating continuous operational recovery **② Catering:** Short-term same-store sales still face pressure, Western fast food is relatively resilient, KFC has initiated price increases, and competition in some categories is easing. **③ Tourism:** The immigration bureau has fully relaxed and optimized the transit visa exemption policy, benefiting OTAs, city duty-free shops, and attractions with strong IP attributes. **④ Education:** Longhua District in Shenzhen is procuring AI services for the education sector. **⑤ Exhibition:** Miao Exhibition has been selected for Guangdong's "Yue Trade Global" commodity exhibition platform. **Beauty Care:** **① Beauty:** WeChat mini-stores bring new channel opportunities for domestic beauty brands. **② Gold and Jewelry:** Sales remain stable during the off-peak season from November to December, pay attention to gold price trends and the degree of demand release during the Spring Festival peak season. **③ Trendy Toys:** The listing of Blokus is progressing in an orderly manner, and Aiyingshi is collaborating with Bandai to create a Gundam base. **Trade and Retail:** **① Tencent:** Focus on new gifting opportunities through WeChat mini-stores. **② Meituan:** Rider rights protection may be strengthened. **③ Kuaishou:** The New Year goods festival has begun, and Kuaishou 1.6 update is available. **④ Bilibili:** Announced 43 domestic animation works at the 2024-2025 domestic animation works release conference. **Investment Recommendations** **① Firmly support the fiscal subsidy main line.** From October to November, domestic demand continues to recover overall, and the subsidy chain remains the strongest certainty. In terms of categories, subsidies in areas such as two-wheeled vehicles, catering, home textiles, and consumer electronics continue to increase, focusing on diffusion directions with expected differences. **② Enhance dividend asset allocation.** Recently, the yield on ten-year government bonds has continued to decline, improving the cost-effectiveness of dividend asset allocation. **③ Look for thematic investment opportunities.** Loose liquidity and a performance vacuum period have driven active trading in small-cap stocks, suggesting to seize thematic investment opportunities. **④ Balance allocation towards overseas directions.** In the short term, the slowdown in U.S. dollar interest rate cuts and significant policy uncertainty suggest a focus on brands/products with α logic for overseas targets. **Risk Warning:** Policy implementation may fall short of expectations; overseas economic fluctuations; market volatility risks; data tracking errors ### Related Stocks - [002083.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/002083.CN.md) - 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