Guotai Junan: Leisure Food 2025 Optimization Capability Seeking Increment

Guotai Junan's research report states that: 1. The volume-price rigidity of snack consumption during the peak season is strong, and the contribution of channels is increasing. 1) Snack consumption overall shows a "volume-price rigidity" characteristic during the peak season. From November 2024 to now, snack sales have increased month-on-month, but the unit price and product structure have declined, with intensified internal competition among categories; 2) The channel structure leads to dividends, with discount formats, membership-based supermarkets, and content e-commerce continuing to show relatively high growth. Companies with multi-category and supply chain advantages that can quickly switch channel structures perform relatively well in sales; 3) External demand is releasing momentum, with companies like GANYUAN FOODS and Chacha Food Co., Ltd. still showing relatively high growth in overseas markets. 2. The three major logics of leisure food in 2024 are being realized. The three major logics of leisure food in 2024 are being realized: the trend of raw material costs is declining, supply chain capabilities are optimized, driving down unit costs, and the channel and category dividends are driving the release of scale effects for individual products; looking ahead, the performance elasticity of leisure food continues, but it relies more on supply chain and marketing transformation, with individual product dividends being sporadic. Considering that raw material costs are already operating at a low level, the subsequent performance release of leisure food mainly comes from: 1) Whether companies can continue to optimize their supply chains; 2) Whether channel dividends can spread from leading companies to second-tier companies, and whether companies can accelerate the transformation of channel structures; 3) The ability of companies to continuously create new individual products and the stage of the product's life cycle. 3. Leisure food in 2025: optimizing capabilities and seeking increments. Looking ahead, the key to the performance release of leisure food in 2025 lies in the deepening of the supply chain and the increments brought about by channel transformation; among them, leading targets continue to enjoy the dividends of diversified retail channels. It is recommended to pay attention to: Three Squirrels, GANYUAN FOODS, Chacha Food Co., Ltd., etc