--- title: "Tianfeng Securities Food and Beverage 2025 Strategy: Optimistic about the Recovery of Dining Channels, Seeking Opportunities in Two Main Lines: β/α" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/228480367.md" description: "Tianfeng Securities released its 2025 strategy, focusing on the recovery of the catering channel, and suggesting that investors pay attention to opportunities in the B-end catering supply chain and the seasoning sector, such as Ligao Foods and Baoli Foods. At the same time, from an individual stock perspective, it is optimistic about the snack and dairy sectors, recommending Three Squirrels and YILI. In 2024, the demand for consumer goods is expected to have a weak recovery, with snacks performing prominently, and the overall market facing transformation, with rapid development of online and offline channels" datetime: "2025-02-17T00:10:05.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/228480367.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/228480367.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/228480367.md) generator: "portal-rs" --- # Tianfeng Securities Food and Beverage 2025 Strategy: Optimistic about the Recovery of Dining Channels, Seeking Opportunities in Two Main Lines: β/α According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Tianfeng Securities released a research report stating that considering the generally low inventory of consumer goods and the release of performance pressure, under the promotion of moderately loose monetary policy and consumption stimulus policies, the restaurant scene, which was most severely damaged earlier, may show marginal recovery (with damage levels from high to low being small B/large B/C-end). They are optimistic about the B-end dominant sectors and those with α logic: Main Line One (β Perspective): From the perspective of consumer scene recovery, the B-end has greater elasticity. It is recommended to focus on "restaurant supply chain + condiments" that are highly related to the B-end. Specifically, it is suggested to pay attention to: ① Restaurant supply chain: Ligao Foods (300973.SZ), etc. ② Condiments: Baoli Foods (603170.SH), etc. Main Line Two (α Perspective): From the perspective of individual stock α, they are optimistic about targets with potential positive marginal changes. Specifically, it is suggested to pay attention to: ① Snack sector: Three Squirrels (300783.SZ), etc.; ② Dairy products: YILI (600887.SH), etc. ## Tianfeng Securities' main viewpoints are as follows: **1\. Review of 2024: Overall weak recovery in consumer goods demand, outstanding performance in the snack sector** In the context of a V-shaped trend in retail sales data for 2024 (the restaurant sector remains under pressure) and weak CPI trends (the CPI-PPI scissors gap converges), the consumer goods channel is undergoing significant changes: offline volume discount channels/warehouse membership stores focusing on high cost-performance are gaining momentum, while online content e-commerce is growing rapidly. ① From the performance perspective, the revenue/net profit growth rates of the consumer goods sector in Q1-3 of 2024 are 0.28%/10.08%, with year-on-year changes of -3.89/+10.30 percentage points. Among them: the snack sector shows strong performance resilience and profit elasticity; frozen food is affected by weakened demand and intensified competition, with profit declines continuing to expand; the dairy product sector shows sequential improvement; the condiment sector is accelerating its head brand development, with continuous profit improvement under cost benefits; pre-processed/baking sectors are under pressure due to the impact of the restaurant sector; the demand for health products is declining, leading to significant performance pressure. ② From the holding perspective, the food and beverage sector remains overweight in Q3 of 2024, but the fund holding ratio has decreased quarter-on-quarter. ③ From the stock price/valuation perspective, from the beginning of 2024 to the end of November, the food and beverage sector fell by 2.07%, but the consumer goods stock price rose by 7.91%. The snack sector drives the performance growth of consumer goods, but in terms of valuation, consumer goods have significantly declined, with EPS driving stock price upward. **2\. Outlook for 2025: Optimistic about the recovery of restaurant channels, seeking β/α dual mainline opportunities** ① Leisure snacks: In 2024, the leisure snack sector benefits from channel dividends and category expansion, with high growth in performance. The prosperity of the leisure snack industry in 2025 is expected to continue, based on the underlying logic of top-down supply chain integration + improvement in industry operational efficiency + pursuit of high cost-performance, new product launches (enhancing brand power), and the potential for continued release of snack discounts and channel expansion through Douyin, etc. ② Condiments: Optimistic about the elastic opportunities in the condiment sector, mainly because: ① Continuous policy efforts may stimulate the recovery of terminal consumption, and condiments are highly related to the restaurant sector (and closely related to CPI/PPI performance); ② Valuation is cost-effective; ③ Raw material costs are expected to decline, and profit elasticity is likely to continue to be released ③ Catering Supply Chain: Under the assumption of a 25-year cyclical trend, it is expected that small businesses will recover first and have the greatest elasticity (banquets returning to normal), while large businesses will focus on new product development, and the consumer end will continue to be stable. In a competitive environment, the advantages of downstream chain restaurants are more pronounced, and the demand for cost reduction and efficiency improvement remains strong. In the medium to long term, there is ample room for the penetration rate and concentration of the catering supply chain industry to increase, and leading companies are expected to fully enjoy the dividends. ④ Dairy Products: Currently, the supply of raw milk still exceeds demand, leading to a downward trend in raw milk prices in 2024. In 2025, dairy products may see elastic opportunities, mainly due to: ① Raw milk prices have continued to decline to a low level. With the ongoing reduction in production capacity and the continuous digestion of spray-dried powder inventory, the oversupply of raw milk is expected to improve, and prices may stabilize and rise next year. ② A series of policies are gradually being introduced, which is expected to stabilize and boost the economy, thereby driving demand for dairy products. ⑤ Health & Supplements: The industry's growth rate is gradually entering a stable phase, with weak demand in 2024 affecting performance. Operational strategies and the prosperity of sub-sectors lead to significant differentiation, while changes in population structure bring potential demand, making the differentiation opportunities within the sector promising. **Risk Warning:** Economic recovery may be less than expected; risk of continued foreign capital outflow; industrial policy risks; terminal demand recovery may be less than expected; market demand change risks; intensified industry competition; food safety risks; risks of operational decision-making errors or organizational inefficiencies ### Related Stocks - [300783.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/300783.CN.md) - [600887.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/600887.CN.md) - [300973.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/300973.CN.md) - [BYTED.NA](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BYTED.NA.md) - [601162.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/601162.CN.md) - [603170.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/603170.CN.md) - [300959.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/300959.CN.md) ## Related News & Research - [Chinese Pharma Companies Plan Hong Kong Listings](https://longbridge.com/en/news/297979501.md) - [BioGaia (OM:BIOG B) Could Be 26% Undervalued Following Its Recordati Deal](https://longbridge.com/en/news/298111133.md) - [After 66 years, Kau Kee shop offers fish balls ‘every Hongkonger has eaten’](https://longbridge.com/en/news/298090821.md) - [Anker’s Sleep Speaker uses radar and flower power to help you relax](https://longbridge.com/en/news/297876443.md) - [LIVESTOCK-Cattle futures higher amid short covering, falling grain futures](https://longbridge.com/en/news/297950867.md) --- > **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**