--- title: "After a surge of 12 times in less than a year, Morgan Stanley's judgment on LAOPU GOLD: the current valuation is reasonable, with risks from gold prices, lifting of restrictions, and retail investors" description: "Morgan Stanley stated that LAOPU GOLD fills the \"gap\" in China's high-end consumer market, with significant potential for store network expansion and brand awareness improvement. By 2029, LAOPU GOLD's" type: "news" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/230960061.md" published_at: "2025-03-07T09:09:32.000Z" --- # After a surge of 12 times in less than a year, Morgan Stanley's judgment on LAOPU GOLD: the current valuation is reasonable, with risks from gold prices, lifting of restrictions, and retail investors > Morgan Stanley stated that LAOPU GOLD fills the "gap" in China's high-end consumer market, with significant potential for store network expansion and brand awareness improvement. By 2029, LAOPU GOLD's revenue in Greater China could at least double compared to 2024 On March 6, Morgan Stanley analysts Ling Jiayu, Gao Xinye, and others released a report stating that **LAOPU GOLD fills the "blank area" in China's high-end consumer market, coupled with the current high macroeconomic uncertainty, gold prices continue to rise rapidly**. LAOPU GOLD will continue to benefit in the first half of 2025 to 2026. It is expected that LAOPU GOLD has sustained growth potential, and its store network will at least double in the future. **By 2029, LAOPU GOLD's revenue in the Greater China region could at least double compared to 2024**. However, Morgan Stanley also warned that in 2025, LAOPU GOLD may face risks such as fluctuations in gold prices, intensified competition, 13% of total shares about to be unlocked, further increases in stock prices, and a high ratio of retail and southbound investors. As a local high-end jewelry brand in China, LAOPU GOLD has only been established for 15 years and has 36 stores in 27 high-end shopping malls, but it has successfully secured a place in the luxury jewelry market. Since 2023, LAOPU GOLD has seen same-store sales growth of over 100% for two consecutive years, with revenue growth exceeding 140%, far surpassing domestic peers, and even outperforming international jewelry brands in single mall sales, being hailed on social media as the "Hermès of the Chinese gold jewelry industry." As of the time of publication, LAOPU GOLD's Hong Kong stock is priced at HKD 608 per share, having risen over 130% this year. ## Revenue May Double in Five Years Morgan Stanley expects that by 2029, LAOPU GOLD's revenue in the Greater China region could at least double compared to 2024, mainly for three reasons: > 1. Store network expansion: LAOPU GOLD will expand from the current 27 malls to 55-60 malls, approaching the coverage of top foreign luxury brands; > 2. Significant room for brand awareness improvement: An AlphaWise survey shows that currently only 26% of Chinese jewelry consumers have heard of the LAOPU brand, far lower than the top three domestic brands (78%) and the top two foreign brands (72%); > 3. Overseas markets: In the long term, LAOPU GOLD has room for expansion in Asian markets excluding India, but this market is about a quarter the size of the Greater China region. However, Morgan Stanley also cautioned that for same-store sales growth, LAOPU GOLD's growth of over 100% in 2023-2024 may not be sustainable, as LAOPU GOLD's single-store revenue is already far higher than other jewelry brands, sometimes even exceeding many soft luxury brands, leading to very tight store service capacity. ## Key Risk Factors in 2025 Morgan Stanley pointed out that there are four risk points to watch for LAOPU GOLD in 2025: > 1. Fluctuations in gold prices: Since March 2024, gold prices have surged sharply, with market preference shifting from weight-based gold jewelry to fixed-price gold jewelry. If gold prices fall or stabilize, consumers may revert to traditional gold products priced by weight; > 2. Intensifying competition: The success of LAOPU GOLD proves the strong demand for high-end gold jewelry, and other traditional brands are intensifying efforts to launch similar products; > 3. Stock liquidity factors: 13% of LAOPU GOLD's total shares will be unlocked in June 2025, coinciding with the one-year anniversary of its stock listing, increasing the public shareholding from the current 15% to 28%. The last lock-up period ended in December, when public shareholding increased from 9% to 15%, and given the strong fundamentals, the stock price continued to rise. > 4. High retail and southbound investor ratio: LAOPU GOLD has a high share among southbound investors and retail investors, who typically focus on short-term trends and pay less attention to long-term valuations. Since September last year, southbound investors accounted for as much as 30% of public shareholding (the industry average is about 23%), while institutional investors only accounted for 10% of public shareholding (the industry average is about 33%) ### Related Stocks - [06181.HK - LAOPU GOLD](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/06181.HK.md) - [HESAY.US - Hermès](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/HESAY.US.md) - [MS.US - Morgan Stanley](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/MS.US.md) ## Related News & Research | Title | Description | URL | |-------|-------------|-----| | 老铺黄金 2 月底将涨价，此前多地门店出现排队潮 | 老铺黄金宣布将于 2026 年 2 月 28 日调价，近期多地门店出现排队现象。消费者因预期涨价而抢购，导致门店供不应求。国金证券指出，品牌价值认可度提升是需求增长的核心原因。老铺黄金在高端购物中心设有 40 多家门店，并计划优化现有门店布 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276306184.md) | | 消费回暖！公募两大方式提前布局 | 随着马年春节的临近，消费板块出现回暖，泡泡玛特和老铺黄金等新消费及贵州茅台等传统消费均显著上涨。部分消费主题基金收益率超过 20%。公募通过新基金发行和存量基金提前加仓，布局新年消费行情。预计 2026 年新零售、年轻人消费和稳健类资产将具 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276464011.md) | | 欧洲老钱盯上了老铺黄金 | 老铺黄金在奢侈品市场引起关注，历峰集团 CEO 和 LVMH 掌门人均对其表示关注。老铺黄金的销售额显著高于卡地亚和 Tiffany，且其消费者与奢侈品牌高度重合，平均重合率达到 77.3%。这一现象引发了奢侈品集团的紧张，因为老铺黄金正在 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/272554362.md) | | 涨价前夕，老铺黄金飙上 1360 亿元 | 老铺黄金宣布将于 2 月 28 日调价，预计整体上涨 10-15%。调价前，门店出现排队抢购现象，尤其在广州太古汇商场。自 1 月起，老铺黄金推出促销活动，生意迎来高峰。该品牌以古法手工黄金著称，市值约 1360 亿港元，预计 2025 年 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276455389.md) | | 老铺黄金官宣即将调价，金价又要涨？ | 老铺黄金宣布将于 2 月 28 日对全线产品进行价格调整，这是其 2026 年后的首次调价。业内人士推测调价幅度可能延续 2025 年的递增趋势。2025 年，老铺黄金曾三次调价，涨幅逐步攀升。与此同时，黄金珠宝行业也迎来调价潮，其他品牌如 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276291614.md) | --- > **Disclaimer**: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.