--- title: "[Trading Logic] With multiple positive data coming in, will palm oil prices continue to rise significantly?" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/231016928.md" description: "The report analyzes the trading logic and market dynamics of various commodities. Coking coal faces expectations for the 11th round of price reductions, with market sentiment boosted by rumors of production restrictions from Shanxi Coking Coal. The caustic soda market shows signs of demand recovery, and liquid chlorine prices remain stable. Palm oil is in the spotlight due to reduced production of palm oil and rising demand in Southeast Asia, but falling crude oil prices may weigh on its prices. The operating rate of soda ash is high, but demand is lukewarm, and inventory remains high. The shipping companies on the European route have raised their quotes, and loading rates have improved" datetime: "2025-03-07T15:12:13.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/231016928.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/231016928.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/231016928.md) generator: "portal-rs" --- # [Trading Logic] With multiple positive data coming in, will palm oil prices continue to rise significantly? The following are the viewpoints from several futures companies' research reports exclusively compiled by Jinshi Futures APP, for reference only. ## Coking Coal Trading Logic: There is an expectation of the 11th round of price reductions; spot transactions are sluggish, with low trading volume; downstream coking enterprises mainly purchase as needed; Mongolian coal imports remain high. Risk Factors: Rumors of production restrictions at Shanxi Coking Coal boost market sentiment; steel mills' molten iron output stabilizes and rebounds; optimistic expectations for macro policies; prices are at historical lows; coking enterprises actively limit production after expanding losses. Events to Watch: Accelerated production pace at steel mills, increased molten iron output; fluctuations in Mongolian coal clearance volume and port inventory reduction; domestic and international macro events; production increase and decrease policies, etc. ## Caustic Soda Trading Logic: Some enterprises have improved sales; the liquid chlorine market shows improved downstream demand in certain areas of Shandong; alumina prices remain stable; low-grade alkali prices in North China and Shandong have slightly increased; most manufacturers have good sales conditions; macro sentiment supports the effect. Risk Factors: Recent maintenance plans are relatively few; liquid caustic soda production enterprises' inventory has increased month-on-month; caustic soda enterprises' operating rates have risen month-on-month. Events to Watch: Sales conditions of production enterprises; changes in alumina prices; new alumina production capacity coming online; impact of macro policies on sentiment changes; maintenance conditions, etc. ## Palm Oil Trading Logic: MPOA data shows a significant reduction in Malaysian palm oil production in February; domestic spot trading sentiment is good, with increased trading volume; the market expects Southeast Asian palm oil demand to gradually rise in the second half of the year; the MPOB report may further boost bullish sentiment. Risk Factors: A sharp decline in crude oil prices drags down palm oil prices; export data declines; there is an expectation of increased production in March. Events to Watch: Changes in crude oil and related oil futures prices; implementation of Indonesia's B50 policy; high-frequency data on Malaysia's palm oil production, exports, and inventory changes; purchasing trends of major importing countries, etc. ## Soda Ash Trading Logic: Overall operating rates and production remain high; demand for float glass is weak; supply-demand contradictions still exist; inventory remains at historical highs. Risk Factors: Declining capacity utilization and production; inventory has decreased; pending orders have increased; some photovoltaic glass production has resumed; leading enterprises support prices. Events to Watch: Implementation of maintenance plans by leading enterprises; recovery of downstream demand; weekly changes in total inventory of soda ash manufacturers; price support conditions of soda ash manufacturers, etc. ## Container Shipping Europe Route Trading Logic: Shipping companies announce price increases for April; shipping companies' loading rates have improved; downstream cargo volume on the Europe route is recovering; geopolitical events are recurring. Risk Factors: U.S. tariffs and other policies may suppress global freight demand; European manufacturing activity remains weak. Events to Watch: Adjustments in shipping companies' quotes; evolution of geopolitical conflicts; recovery status of European manufacturing, etc. ## Iron Ore Trading Logic: Market rumors suggest a reduction of 50 million tons in crude steel production this year; spot market sentiment is sluggish, with quiet transactions; production cost support continues to weaken; the market expects an increase in iron ore imports in March. Risk Factors: Gradual recovery of molten iron; the traditional peak season is approaching; port inventory levels have decreased. Events to Watch: Release of macro favorable policies such as real estate; changes in molten iron increase and decrease; shipping conditions from Australia and Brazil; changes in demand and sentiment brought by the traditional peak season; port inventory conditions, etc The information in this article is sourced from publicly available materials. This article strives for accuracy and reliability of the information, but does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of this information. 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