---
title: "On the eve of delivery data, Tesla's stock price surged 7% during intraday trading. What are investors betting on?"
type: "News"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/234112605.md"
description: "On the eve of the delivery data release, Tesla's stock price surged over 7% during Tuesday's trading session. Despite the company still facing slowing sales and brand controversies, several institutions hold a pessimistic view on first-quarter deliveries, but the market has chosen to bet against this. Analysts believe that the \"pre-purchase wave\" has boosted the overall strength of the automotive sector, combined with an emotional rebound triggered by extremely low expectations, as well as the anticipation of brand recovery due to Musk potentially stepping down from related White House positions, which may provide a catalyst for the rebound"
datetime: "2025-04-01T21:16:59.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/234112605.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/234112605.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/234112605.md)
---

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# On the eve of delivery data, Tesla's stock price surged 7% during intraday trading. What are investors betting on?

Tesla's stock price unexpectedly rebounded strongly during intraday trading on Tuesday, rising more than 7% at one point, and ultimately closing up 3.59%, shaking off the downward trend of the previous weeks.

This rebound occurred on the eve of Tesla's announcement of first-quarter delivery and production data on Wednesday, with several institutions expecting Tesla's Q1 delivery figures to be the worst since Q4 2022.

Why did Tesla's stock price rise against the trend?

## Has the global sales decline been priced in?

In fact, Tesla's sales issues are no longer news.

In the Chinese market, Tesla's sales in February plummeted nearly 50% year-on-year. In the European market, Tesla's registration in France in March was only 3,157 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 37%, while sales in the German household market fell by 76%. In the U.S. market, sales for the entire year of 2024 are expected to decline year-on-year for the first time, with only a 2.3% growth in Q4 last year, far below the industry average growth rate of 15%.

Current market expectations for Tesla's first-quarter delivery data are extremely pessimistic. According to the latest predictions from 15 analysts compiled by Visible Alpha, Tesla is expected to deliver approximately 373,000 vehicles in the first quarter, a year-on-year decline of 3.6%. Deutsche Bank is even more pessimistic, predicting deliveries will be between 340,000 and 350,000, below last year's level of 387,000.

As analysts have pointed out, some of the pessimistic expectations may have already been priced in, with Tesla's stock price having fallen nearly 36% in the first quarter, and nearly halving since the peak in December last year. Investors seem to be betting in advance, wagering that there may be positive signals in the upcoming data.

In the face of competition and market contraction, Tesla is trying to revive demand through product updates. **On Tuesday, Teslarati reported that Tesla's upgraded Model Y sold over 43,000 units in the Chinese market in March, likely becoming the best-selling pure electric model in China for the month.** This is undoubtedly a confidence-boosting signal for investors.

Additionally, according to a previous article from Wall Street Insight, the 25% import tariff on passenger vehicles is about to take effect, leading American consumers to rush to buy cars, sparking an early buying spree in the U.S. market, with several automakers reporting impressive results for the first quarter.

General Motors' sales surged 17% year-on-year, while Hyundai and Kia reached quarterly highs, and Ford, Toyota, and Honda also reported varying degrees of growth, especially with significant month-on-month increases in March. Tesla may benefit from the "early buying spree," driving overall delivery volumes in the automotive sector upward.

Furthermore, with the impending Trump tariffs, Tesla has a "geographical" advantage. Compared to brands like BMW and Mercedes, which rely heavily on imports or overseas components, Tesla's localized production capacity in the U.S. (such as the Texas factory) provides it with a relative advantage, and its U.S. production background may benefit from tariff policies

## Will the Trump Brand Effect Marginally Ease?

Another variable that may be reassessed by the market is the expectation of brand repair brought about by Elon Musk potentially stepping down from the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).

Previously, Tesla faced pressure not only from competitors but also from the backlash effect of CEO Musk's identity. Musk's role as head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) under the Trump administration sparked significant resentment among liberal car owners, leading to a decline in sales in core markets such as the United States and Europe. A wave of "anti-Tesla" protests erupted in various parts of Europe and the U.S., with Tesla stores and vehicles frequently encountering demonstrations or vandalism.

According to a previous article from Wall Street Insight, Elon Musk plans to resign from the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) by the end of May. Musk stated that he is confident in achieving the goal of reducing the federal deficit by $1 trillion before his departure. Trump also expects that after Musk completes the federal government reform work, he will ultimately return to running his own company.

However, some analysts point out that Tesla's fundamentals remain under pressure, and Wednesday's delivery data will still be a key test

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