I'm LongbridgeAI, I can summarize articles.BOC International released a research report stating that the General Administration of Customs has modified the origin determination method for integrated circuit imports to a foundry location rule, which may impact the semiconductor industry in China, the United States, and globally. This move will provide domestic integrated circuit manufacturers in China with opportunities for import substitution. In 2024, China's integrated circuit imports are expected to be approximately USD 385.6 billion, with imports from the United States accounting for 3.1%. American semiconductor companies still dominate the global market
According to the Zhitong Finance APP, BOC International released a research report stating that on April 11, the China Semiconductor Industry Association issued an urgent notice, stating that the origin of "integrated circuits" will be determined according to the principle of changing the four-digit tariff number, meaning that the wafer fabrication site will be recognized as the origin. It is suggested that for "integrated circuits," whether packaged or unpackaged, the origin for customs declaration during import should be based on the location of the "wafer fabrication factory." Although the direct export amount from U.S. semiconductor manufacturers to China is relatively small, they typically have extensive wafer fabs and packaging/testing facilities in East Asia and Southeast Asia. The modification of the customs rules for determining the origin of imported integrated circuits may impact the semiconductor industry in China, the U.S., and even globally. Semiconductor companies with fabs in the U.S. may be significantly affected, while domestic integrated circuit manufacturers in China may welcome a window for import substitution.
BOC International's main viewpoints are as follows:
The General Administration of Customs has modified the origin determination method for imported integrated circuits to the wafer fabrication site rule.
On April 11, 2025, the China Semiconductor Industry Association issued an urgent notice stating that the origin of "integrated circuits" will be determined according to the principle of changing the four-digit tariff number, meaning that the wafer fabrication site will be recognized as the origin. It is suggested that for "integrated circuits," whether packaged or unpackaged, the origin for customs declaration during import should be based on the location of the "wafer fabrication factory." According to data from the General Administration of Customs, in 2024, China's integrated circuit import amount is approximately USD 385.6 billion, with imports from various countries or regions as follows: Taiwan USD 139.6 billion; South Korea USD 83.9 billion; Malaysia USD 22.5 billion; Japan USD 19.2 billion; Vietnam USD 13.9 billion; and the United States USD 11.8 billion.
In 2024, the amount of integrated circuits directly imported from the United States to China accounted for about 3.1% of the total import amount. According to Gartner data, among the top ten global semiconductor companies in 2024, the U.S. occupies 7 seats with Intel, Nvidia, Qualcomm, Micron, Broadcom, AMD, and Apple.
BOC International believes that the strength of U.S. integrated circuits remains top-notch globally. Although the direct export amount from U.S. semiconductor manufacturers to China is relatively small, they typically have extensive wafer fabs and packaging/testing facilities in East Asia and Southeast Asia, and they indirectly export a significant amount to China through Taiwan, South Korea, Malaysia, Japan, Vietnam, and other countries or regions. The modification of the customs rules for determining the origin of imported integrated circuits may impact the semiconductor industry in China, the U.S., and even globally.
Semiconductor companies with fabs in the U.S. may be significantly affected.
According to information from semiconductor maps and Linked Enterprises Laboratory, semiconductor manufacturers with wafer fabs in the U.S. include: 1) Intel, whose wafer fabs are mainly located in Arizona, New Mexico, and Oregon, primarily producing CPU chips; 2) Micron, whose wafer fabs are mainly located in Idaho, Utah, and Virginia, primarily producing DRAM and NAND chips; 3) TI, whose wafer fabs are mainly located in Texas, Utah, and Maine, primarily producing analog chips 4) ADI, Analog Devices' wafer fabs are mainly located in Washington, Oregon, and Massachusetts, with products primarily focused on analog chips; 5) Microchip's wafer fabs are mainly located in Arizona, Oregon, Colorado, and Massachusetts, with products primarily focused on analog and MCU chips; 6) ON Semiconductor's wafer fabs are mainly located in Idaho, Oregon, and Arizona, with products primarily focused on power devices, CIS, and power IC chips.
- Skyworks' wafer fabs are mainly located in Massachusetts and Arizona, with products primarily focused on RF chips; 8) Qorvo's wafer fabs are mainly located in North Carolina, Florida, and Texas, with products primarily focused on RF chips; 9) Other U.S. semiconductor companies.
CITIC International believes that the semiconductor companies with wafer fabs in the U.S. are relatively more affected by changes in China's integrated circuit tariff policies. At the same time, they can also reduce the impact by tape-out at wafer fabs such as Taiwan Semiconductor, United Microelectronics, SMIC, and Hua Hong Semiconductor. Fabless companies like Nvidia, AMD, Qualcomm, Broadcom, and Marvell are relatively less affected by changes in China's integrated circuit tariff policies, as they directly tape-out at wafer fabs like Taiwan Semiconductor and United Microelectronics.
Chinese local integrated circuit manufacturers may welcome an import substitution window period
CITIC International believes that the impact of the General Administration of Customs' modification of the rules for determining the origin of integrated circuit imports includes: 1) Intel's CPU price increase, benefiting AMD and domestic manufacturers Haiguang Information and Loongson Technology (improved cost-performance ratio and coordinated price increase, same below); 2) Micron's memory chip price increase, benefiting Samsung, SK Hynix, Changxin Memory, and Yangtze Memory's memory products; 3) TI, ADI, Microchip, and ON Semiconductor's analog and MCU products price increase, benefiting domestic manufacturers such as Sanan Optoelectronics, Sierpu, Naxin Micro, and Chipsea.
- Skyworks and Qorvo's RF products price increase, benefiting domestic manufacturers such as Zhaosheng Micro, Vanchip, and Huizhi Micro's RF chips; 5) U.S. semiconductor manufacturers may transfer orders to wafer fabs like Taiwan Semiconductor, United Microelectronics, SMIC, and Hua Hong Semiconductor to reduce the impact of tariff policy changes; 6) Other semiconductor products that may benefit.
Target aspects
It is recommended to pay attention to: SMIC (688981.SH), Hua Hong Semiconductor (688347.SH), Haiguang Information (688041.SH), Loongson Technology (688047.SH), Cambricon (688256.SH), Shengke Communication (688702.SH), Anlu Technology (688107.SH), Fudan Microelectronics (688385.SH), GUOXIN MICRO (002049.SZ), Sanan Optoelectronics (300661.SZ), Sierpu (688536.SH), Naxin Micro (688052.SH), Chipsea (688595.SH), Longsys (688486.SH), Zhaoyi Innovation (603986.SH), Zhongying Electronics (300327.SZ), and Silan Microelectronics (600460.SH) Zhuo Sheng Wei (300782.SZ), Vanchip (688153.SH), Hui Zhi Wei (688512.SH), etc.
Risk Factors
Global economic downturn. Changes in trade policies. Technological innovation falling short of expectations