--- title: "Economic sentiment is tumbling. But BofA says stocks can rally 17% over the next year if a recession doesn't transpire." description: "Bank of America suggests that despite weak economic sentiment, stocks could rally by 17% over the next year if a recession does not occur. Historically, when poor sentiment does not lead to a recessio" type: "news" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/240250138.md" published_at: "2025-05-14T23:39:50.000Z" --- # Economic sentiment is tumbling. But BofA says stocks can rally 17% over the next year if a recession doesn't transpire. > Bank of America suggests that despite weak economic sentiment, stocks could rally by 17% over the next year if a recession does not occur. Historically, when poor sentiment does not lead to a recession, the stock market has seen significant gains. Current data shows a disparity between negative sentiment and strong economic indicators, leading BofA to predict a positive market outlook, especially with potential GDP growth and favorable trade developments. A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during the afternoon of December 4, 2015 in New York City.Andrew Burton/Getty Images - Weak economic sentiment could be a buy signal, Bank of America says. - The market historically soars when weak sentiment fails to trigger a recession. - BofA expects this to be the case this year. Investors have braced for a grim 2025 as weak sentiment data has hinted at looming pain, but the stock market could soar by double-digits if a recession ends up being nothing but talk, says Bank of America. The bank highlighted a growing gap between sentiment contained in "soft data" and what is actually happening in the economy. If lousy feelings about the economy don't end up morphing into an actual recession, that's historically been a trigger for a big rally in the stock market. "In the past 70 years, when the ISM manufacturing & consumer surveys plunged but no recession followed, US stocks gained 17% and US credit 8% over the subsequent twelve months, outrunning long-term averages," the bank's Research Investment Committee wrote. Conditions are ripe for this scenario to transpire now. The ISM manufacturing PMI contracted for the second consecutive month in April, slipping to 48.7% — a reading that signals a bearish view of the manufacturing sector. Survey respondents cited high tariff uncertainty and an apprehensive business climate. Sentiment is equally bleak among consumers. The Conference Board's latest Consumer Confidence Index plunged in April, hitting levels not seen since the pandemic. Meanwhile, the Expectations Survey reached a 2011 low, giving a clear signal that a recession is inbound. Bank of America But these soft data points are at odds with hard data reports, which have been strong and include low jobless claims, a stabilizing dollar, tighter credit spreads, and inflation-beating wage growth. "It's a record gap between bearish surveys & bullish facts," the bank said. For its part, BofA analysts do not see a recession forming, a view that has been shared by more forecasters since the Trump administration reached a temporary tariff truce with China over the weekend. The de-escalation has been pivotal for nervous investors, as the trade war with Beijing has been a core risk fueling recession angst. After a weak GDP reading in the first quarter — which economists agree was caused by a surge of imports ahead of tariff disruptions — BofA is betting that the second quarter will see a major reversal, marked by 2% GDP growth and weaker final demand. If a recession is avoided and the 17% year-on-year forecast pans out, this would pull the S&P 500 to nearly 6,900. BofA highlighted several other reasons to bet on summer upside, including progress on trade negotiations, a policy pivot to tax cuts and dereulgation, and onshoring from emerging markets. Read the original article on Business Insider ### Related Stocks - [BAC.US - Bank of America](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BAC.US.md) ## Related News & Research | Title | Description | URL | |-------|-------------|-----| | 本轮 AI 大清洗，财富管理平台被错杀了？ | 随着 AI 税务规划工具的推出，财富管理平台股价承压，市场情绪恐慌。美银美林的研报指出，这一抛售是情绪化的错杀，AI 是增强而非替代顾问的工具。高净值客户仍需人类顾问的专业建议，AI 的价值在于提升效率。报告认为，具备高净值客户基础、积极嵌 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/275890826.md) | | 二月份基金经理调查：接近历史纪录的狂热情绪，创纪录的资本支出厌恶 | 上个月美国银行的基金经理调查发现，投资者不仅是自 2021 年 7 月以来最乐观的，而且在过去 8 年中对冲程度最低 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276229246.md) | | 特朗普暗示违法征收的关税不退了，美财长称今年关税收入将 “基本保持不变” | 美国总统特朗普暗示不会退还被最高法院裁定违法的关税，预计 2026 年关税收入将保持不变。特朗普计划签署行政令，对全球商品加征 10% 进口关税，取代被推翻的关税。财长贝森特表示，政府将利用替代法律权力维持关税收入，强调国家安全和财政收入不 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276494362.md) | | 最高法裁决后特朗普动用替补选择：加征 10% 全球关税 | 美国总统特朗普在最高法院裁决后宣布将加征 10% 的全球关税，以补救被推翻的关税措施。根据《1974 年贸易法》第 122 条款，现有的关税将全面生效。最高法院裁定特朗普政府的部分关税措施缺乏法律授权。市场风险提示，投资需谨慎。 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276477629.md) | | 美股盘中速递：Rich Sparkle 跌 10.06%，分析师卖出评级引发投资者信心危机 | Rich Sparkle 跌 10.06%；贝迪公司跌 5.58%，成交额达到 29.67 百万美元；Deluxe 跌 0.60%，成交额达到 4.02 百万美元；Cimpress 跌 1.61%，成交额达到 2.55 百万美元；恩尼斯跌 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276478664.md) | --- > **Disclaimer**: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.