--- title: "U.S. Stock Market Outlook | Three Major Index Futures Mixed, NVIDIA's Earnings Report Coming After Hours" description: "U.S. stock index futures were mixed. As of the time of writing, Dow futures were down 0.01%, S&P 500 futures were up 0.07%, and Nasdaq futures were up 0.12%. Goldman Sachs expects the inflation impact" type: "news" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/242196052.md" published_at: "2025-05-28T11:42:03.000Z" --- # U.S. Stock Market Outlook | Three Major Index Futures Mixed, NVIDIA's Earnings Report Coming After Hours > U.S. stock index futures were mixed. As of the time of writing, Dow futures were down 0.01%, S&P 500 futures were up 0.07%, and Nasdaq futures were up 0.12%. Goldman Sachs expects the inflation impact from tariffs to be short-term, with the core PCE inflation rate rising to 3.6% by the end of the year. Analysts warn that technology stocks face a significant risk of correction, as market valuations approach historical extremes ## Pre-Market Market Trends 1. As of May 28 (Wednesday), U.S. stock index futures are mixed before the market opens. As of the time of writing, Dow futures are down 0.01%, S&P 500 futures are up 0.07%, and Nasdaq futures are up 0.12%. ![31.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20250528/1748432036759214.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) 1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index is down 0.50%, the UK FTSE 100 index is down 0.15%, the French CAC40 index is down 0.20%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is down 0.38%. ![32.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20250528/1748432040384249.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) 1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil is up 0.84%, priced at $61.40 per barrel. Brent crude oil is up 0.79%, priced at $64.07 per barrel. ![33.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20250528/1748432044283094.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) ## Market News **Goldman Sachs sends a "reassurance" to the market: The inflation brought by tariffs is a short-term shock for the U.S., expected to quickly recede next year.** Goldman Sachs' team of economists stated that the new round of tariffs led by the Trump administration will bring a temporary shock to U.S. inflation data later this year rather than a long-term trend impact, and they expect this short-term inflation effect to dissipate by 2026. In a research report released this week, the bank's chief U.S. economist David Mericle predicted that driven by price increases related to tariffs, the core PCE inflation rate will slightly rise to 3.6% by the end of this year, and then quickly recede again next year. Goldman Sachs emphasized that compared to the surge in U.S. inflation in 2021-2022, the current economic situation, along with the lesser threat linked to U.S. consumer spending capacity, is mainly due to a significant easing of labor market tightness, a continuous decline in forward-looking wage indicators, and U.S. households' consumption capacity no longer being maintained at historically high levels due to fiscal transfers. However, Goldman Sachs warned that if tariffs on specific countries are raised to "discouraging" levels or if tariff measures continue until 2026, inflation could remain elevated for an extended period. **Are U.S. tech stocks "dancing on the edge of a cliff"? A "double top" warning may trigger a 50% deep correction.** Analyst Kevin George published a commentary stating that current tech stocks face deep correction risks, and both short-term volatility and long-term risks should be heeded. He pointed out that current market valuations are close to historical extremes, and economic growth is slowing down. The Buffett indicator suggests that there may be a bubble in the market, while multiple risks such as U.S.-China trade tensions, inflation fluctuations, global conflicts, and excessive capital expenditures in artificial intelligence and cloud sectors under weak demand are frequent. Therefore, he advises investors to diversify their allocations and stay away from growth themes The analyst stated that investors should focus on the "Buffett Indicator," a long-term valuation metric that compares the total market capitalization of U.S. stocks to the size of the U.S. economy. If the growth rate of U.S. stock market capitalization significantly exceeds actual economic growth, it often indicates that the market is in a bubble zone. This logic is particularly applicable in the current environment: current valuations heavily rely on expectations that artificial intelligence and cloud computing will continue to create exponential growth, but where will enterprise-level buyers come from when the economy declines? **Barclays: Institutional holdings remain low, and the "path of least resistance" for global stock markets is still upward.** Barclays' strategists indicated that the proportion of investors' allocations to stocks remains low, so from a market perspective, the "path of least resistance" is upward. The team led by Emmanuel Cau stated that the rebound in the stock market in May was not significantly influenced by institutional investors, whose overall holdings remain light. Cau wrote in a report, "Without shocks from market volatility, 'systematic buying behavior may continue to drive the stock market upward.'" Cau noted that in May, domestic investors in the U.S. sold domestic stocks and turned to international stocks. However, the "sell America" trade was mainly concentrated in the dollar and bond markets. Meanwhile, the process of capital flowing back to Europe has temporarily stalled, and European investors' selling of U.S. assets has also been limited. Earlier this month, Cau accurately predicted that the easing of the U.S.-China trade war would drive the stock market upward. **Standard Chartered warns: 2026 may become the starting point for a "bloodbath" in U.S. bonds!** Steve Englander, head of G10 foreign exchange research at Standard Chartered, issued a warning that U.S. assets are facing an imminent liquidity crisis, and 2026 may become the "critical point" for overseas investors to decide whether to continue financing the ever-expanding U.S. debt. Over the past decade, U.S. external debt has surged, with its fiscal deficit heavily reliant on international capital inflows. Englander pointed out that if overseas investors lose confidence in U.S. bonds and the dollar, the market will quickly feel the "pain of blood loss." Although the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries has fluctuated down by 15 basis points this year, the dollar index has plummeted by 8% in 2025, signaling danger. The so-called "Beautiful Law" passed by the U.S. Senate last week failed to alleviate concerns about fiscal sustainability, and economists generally believe that the law will exacerbate the deficit rather than solve the problem. Englander warned that this could lead to an increase in the risk premium for the dollar and U.S. bonds—despite the theoretical attractiveness of depreciated currency, international investors may still hesitate. **OPEC+ will hold a meeting to discuss production quotas.** OPEC+ will hold an online meeting on Wednesday to review production quotas for this year and next, after which eight key member countries will decide over the weekend whether to increase production again in July. Several representatives indicated that the alliance is expected to maintain its long-term goals for 2025 and 2026—these goals are the basis for current supply restrictions. Representatives stated that discussions on whether to continue increasing production by 411,000 barrels per day will be finalized in Saturday's video conference. Over the past two months, such increases have led to a sharp drop in oil prices ## Individual Stock News **NVIDIA (NVDA.US) earnings report set to solidify strong rally in tech stocks.** NVIDIA will announce its Q1 fiscal year 2026 earnings report after the U.S. stock market closes on Wednesday. According to analyst consensus expectations, NVIDIA's Q1 revenue is projected to be $43.3 billion, compared to $26 billion in the same period last year; adjusted earnings per share are expected to be $0.88, up from $0.61 a year ago. As the last major tech company to report earnings, this global chipmaker's performance could cap off a strong earnings season for large tech stocks. Tim Ghriskey, senior portfolio strategist at Ingalls & Snyder, stated, "Overall, the earnings performance of tech stocks has been positive, with some even very impressive. I believe if NVIDIA continues to perform strongly, it will further solidify the overall upward trend in tech stocks." The market is particularly focused on the supply situation and profit margins of NVIDIA's Blackwell chips in its Q1 earnings report. Additionally, due to the Trump administration's ban on NVIDIA's H20 chip exports to China, there is uncertainty surrounding this earnings report. **Meta (META.US) social empire facing breakup? FTC antitrust case awaits final ruling.** After seven weeks of courtroom battles, the antitrust lawsuit between Meta and the U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC) has finally entered the decision phase. The outcome of this trial, which concerns the fate of the tech giant, will entirely depend on Federal Judge James Boasberg's determination of key issues: Does Meta constitute an illegal monopoly in the social media market? Does its market dominance stem from its acquisitions of Instagram and WhatsApp a decade ago? The FTC accuses Meta (formerly Facebook) of consolidating its monopoly in the "personal social networking services" segment by acquiring these two potential competitors in 2012 and 2014. If Boasberg supports the FTC's claims and finds that the company illegally monopolized this market, Meta may be forced to divest Instagram, WhatsApp, or both. This process could still take years to complete. If Meta wins outright, the FTC is expected to appeal quickly. However, Boasberg's ruling will only address whether the company acted unlawfully. If he supports the FTC, it will trigger another trial regarding "how to remedy the damages caused by Meta's actions." It is currently unclear when Boasberg will make a ruling, but it may be announced before the end of this year. **Macy's (M.US) Q1 performance exceeds expectations, lowers full-year profit guidance.** The earnings report shows that Macy's Q1 revenue was $4.79 billion, better than analysts' expectations of $4.42 billion; adjusted earnings per share were $0.16, slightly above analysts' expectations of $0.15. However, due to tariff and spending uncertainties, the company has lowered its full-year profit guidance for fiscal year 2025, expecting adjusted earnings per share for the year to be between $1.60 and $2.00, down from the previous expectation of $2.05 to $2.25 The company still expects full-year net sales to be between $21 billion and $21.4 billion, with analysts expecting $21.03 billion. **Macroeconomic uncertainty clouds the outlook, IDaaS provider Okta (OKTA.US) cautiously maintains performance guidance.** The software company Okta, focused on providing cloud-based identity and access management platforms, recently reported first-quarter results for fiscal year 2026 that exceeded Wall Street analysts' expectations. For the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 ending April 30, Okta reported an adjusted earnings per share of $0.86, higher than the average expectation of $0.77 compiled by LSEG; total revenue was approximately $688 million, exceeding the Wall Street analysts' expectation of $680 million. However, against the backdrop of tariffs causing uncertainty in the U.S. economic outlook, the company maintained its full-year performance outlook, with management expressing a "cautious attitude" towards the fiscal year outlook. The company maintained its previously announced full-year revenue guidance for fiscal year 2026, which is in the range of $2.85 billion to $2.86 billion; the operating profit guidance was slightly raised to $710 million—$720 million (previously expected to be $705 million—$715 million). Management stated in the earnings announcement that the company is now considering all potential risks related to macroeconomic uncertainty caused by tariffs, and expects to be affected for the remainder of the year. As of the time of publication, Okta's stock fell over 10% in pre-market trading on Wednesday. ## Important Economic Data and Event Forecast Beijing time the next day at 02:00, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the May monetary policy meeting. ## Earnings Forecast Thursday morning: NVIDIA (NVDA.US), Salesforce (CRM.US), Synopsys (SNPS.US), HP (HPQ.US), C3.ai (AI.US), Noah Holdings (NOAH.US) Thursday pre-market: Li Auto (LI.US), Futu (FUTU.US), Best Buy (BBY.US) ### Related Stocks - [NVDA.US - NVIDIA](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDA.US.md) - [GS.US - Goldman Sachs](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/GS.US.md) - [NVDL.US - GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDL.US.md) - [06686.HK - NOAH HOLDINGS](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/06686.HK.md) - [BBY.US - Best Buy](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BBY.US.md) - [HPQ.US - HP](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/HPQ.US.md) - [BCS.US - Barclays](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/BCS.US.md) - [SNPS.US - Synopsys](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SNPS.US.md) - [FUTU.US - Futu](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/FUTU.US.md) - [NVDY.US - YieldMax NVDA Option Income Strategy ETF](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDY.US.md) ## Related News & Research | Title | Description | URL | |-------|-------------|-----| | 索羅斯逆市加碼微軟及 Nvidia 等科企 新買入黃金股 清倉 4 隻股份 | 索羅斯基金管理公司在 2022 年第四季度加大對微軟、英偉達和蘋果等大型科技股的投資，同時增持黃金股以對衝風險。基金還增持了 Atlassian、Salesforce 和 Uber 等軟體公司股票，但大幅減持了 Snowflake 和 Ci | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/275990619.md) | | 美國 1 月 CPI 來襲！標普 500、輝達、德國 DAX 指數、澳元/美元技術分析 | 美國勞工統計局將於 2 月 13 日發布 1 月消費者價格指數（CPI），預計服務價格漲幅放緩將導致通脹降温，但核心通脹率可能上升。1 月非農就業數據強勁，促使市場對美聯儲降息次數的預期減少。標普 500 指數在 2 月 12 日下跌 1. | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/275974381.md) | | 消息人士表示，微星科技第一季度的收入可能會保持平穩 | 微星科技預計第一季度收入將保持平穩，超出之前預期的下降。這一穩定性歸因於價格上漲、成本控制以及來自中國的強勁需求。由於內存芯片成本上升，公司將價格提高了約 10%，並且在 RTX 50 系列顯卡上面臨供應限制。儘管每月銷售額創下新高，達到 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/275781303.md) | | 軟件股遭遇 2010 年來最大做空潮，高盛驚呼：市場 “無處可藏”！ | 十年最猛烈做空潮席捲美國軟件股，摩根士丹利數據顯示空頭規模創 2010 年以來新高，市場陷入 “先賣後問” 的恐慌。AI 取代白領的擔憂引發行業震盪，防禦性板塊加速跑贏，科技七巨頭（Mag 7）亦顯頹勢。高盛交易主管 Callahan 表示 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/275859482.md) | | 反超三星、利潤率蓋過台積電：SK 海力士是如何問鼎 AI 存儲領域 “隱形霸主” 的？ | SK 海力士過去 12 個月市值飆升 340%，已從債權人控制的 “殭屍公司” 逆襲為 AI 產業鏈定價者。其憑藉 HBM 先發優勢，在 AI 需求爆發的浪潮下，深度綁定英偉達與微軟，拿下全球過半 HBM 份額；市佔率超越三星，利潤率超越台 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/275576275.md) | --- > **Disclaimer**: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.