The U.S. stock earnings season comes to an end, and "uncertainty" becomes the only certain pain

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, as the earnings season for U.S. stocks comes to a close, one thing is certain for investors: corporate executives and Wall Street analysts are deeply concerned about the "uncertainty" caused by U.S. President Donald Trump's aggressive trade policies.

Corporate Executives Frequently Mention "Uncertainty"

Best Buy (BBY.US) CEO Corie Barry stated during Thursday's earnings call, "Looking ahead to the remainder of the year, there remains uncertainty regarding tariff levels, timing, and the countries involved, aside from actions that other companies in the industry may take and potential responses from U.S. consumers."

Other corporate executives have also frequently mentioned "uncertainty." Deckers Outdoor (DECK.US) CFO stated last week that due to "macroeconomic uncertainty related to global trade policies," the company is unable to provide full-year performance guidance. AT&T (T.US) CEO John Stankey mentioned that the company is maintaining flexibility in its balance sheet to be able to respond to "any uncertainties that arise in the competitive or macro environment."

According to an analysis of meeting records by Bloomberg, terms like "uncertain" and "uncertainty" have been mentioned approximately 3,100 times in various companies' earnings calls and other events since early April. This is the highest occurrence in over 20 years, surpassing even the peak of the global financial crisis in 2008 and the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.

During the trade war, S&P 500 constituent companies frequently mentioned "uncertainty."

As U.S. courts question Trump's global tariff policies, uncertainty is intensifying. A judge from the U.S. International Trade Court ruled on Wednesday that the Trump administration improperly invoked a 1977 law to impose tariffs on dozens of countries, making the action illegal. A federal judge in Washington ruled on Thursday that several tariffs imposed by Trump on China and other countries were unlawful.

However, later on Thursday, the U.S. Court of Appeals temporarily stayed the International Trade Court's ruling on Trump's tariffs to hear arguments. The Trump administration vowed to appeal to the Supreme Court if necessary.

Tariff Clouds Hang Over U.S. Stocks

Despite the S&P 500 index rebounding from its April lows and currently being less than 4% away from its all-time high set in February, the ambiguity surrounding trade and its impact on the economy continues to put pressure on stock market investors.

Mark Hackett, Chief Market Strategist at Nationwide, stated, "In this situation, it's really hard to believe that the stock market will soar to record highs."

Meanwhile, indicators measuring CEO confidence have fallen to their lowest levels since 2022. A joint survey conducted in May by the Business Roundtable and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce found that over 80% of corporate executives expect a recession in the next year and a half Goldman Sachs Group CEO David Solomon stated during the earnings call on April 14 that a lack of clarity has limited clients' ability to make "important" decisions.

He said, "The uncertainty of the future path and the escalating concerns about the impact of the trade war pose significant risks to the U.S. and global economies."

Six weeks have passed, and U.S. trade policy remains volatile. Countries are racing to reach agreements before tariff deadlines, while Trump continues to issue threats on social media, unsettling the markets.

Meanwhile, the U.S. economy contracted in the first quarter, but other economic data remained largely stable. Although there are concerns that capital expenditures may decline, companies have generally kept their capital expenditure plans unchanged, which is good news for investors. However, for corporate executives, unknown risks remain the biggest concern.

ExxonMobil (XOM.US) CEO Darren Woods stated on Wednesday: "In the long run, the secondary effects of tariffs, such as their impact on global GDP growth and energy demand, are much more complex and remain a source of uncertainty. We will continue to focus on what we can control."