CITIC Securities: The iterative path of wire control braking technology allows domestic manufacturers to potentially overtake and increase market share

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Guotai Junan released a research report stating that there are three technical paths for brake-by-wire: EHB Two-box, One-box, and EMB. Currently, One-box is the mainstream choice, and overseas manufacturers dominate the market. EMB is a true brake-by-wire system with significant performance advantages, aligning with the development trend of intelligent driving, and is transitioning from technology research and development to mass production. The R&D progress of EMB by domestic and foreign manufacturers is similar, and domestic manufacturers can bypass the less advantageous hydraulic control field, potentially allowing them to overtake and increase market share during the iteration of technical paths.

The main points of Guotai Junan are as follows:

Brake-by-wire: Achieving braking through electrical signals, an important component of intelligent chassis

The braking system has evolved from mechanical braking to hydraulic braking and now to brake-by-wire. The mechanical braking system transmits braking force to the wheel brake through mechanical connections; hydraulic braking amplifies braking force through a vacuum booster and hydraulic master cylinder to the brake caliper; the brake-by-wire system achieves braking operations through electrical signals.

Brake-by-wire is an important component of the intelligent chassis, meeting the safety requirements of intelligent driving. Among the three directions of the intelligent chassis, steering and suspension enhance comfort through drive-by-wire and collaborative design; while brake-by-wire meets the safety requirements of the execution layer in intelligent driving due to its rapid response and precise control capabilities.

Three technical paths for brake-by-wire, EMB aligns with the development trend of intelligent driving, transitioning from R&D to mass production

There are three technical paths for brake-by-wire: EHB Two-box, EHB One-box, and EMB. EHB uses an electric motor to replace the vacuum device to drive the hydraulic pump for electronic hydraulic braking, with Two-box and One-box adopting separate and integrated designs, respectively; EMB eliminates the hydraulic structure to achieve full brake-by-wire.

EHB One-box is the current mainstream choice. One-box has advantages of small size and low cost, becoming the current mainstream brake-by-wire solution, with its share rising from 20.5% in 2021 to 63.4% in 2024.

EMB is more aligned with the development trend of intelligent driving and is transitioning from technology R&D to mass production. EMB has significant performance advantages in response speed and control precision, greatly enhancing active safety capabilities, aligning with the development trend of intelligent driving. The previous bottleneck for EMB not reaching mass production was mainly due to motor durability issues and the lack of relevant regulations. With advancements in technology and regulations, EMB is moving from R&D to mass production. The existing regulations-compliant front wet and rear dry HBBW system is expected to achieve mass production first.

In the EHB sector, foreign manufacturers still dominate, while domestic manufacturers focus on EMB.

It is expected that the brake-by-wire market will reach 25.75 billion yuan by 2030. Among them, EMB is expected to achieve a breakthrough in mass production by 2025, reaching a scale of 11.98 billion by 2030.

Foreign manufacturers hold a dominant position in the EHB market, while domestic manufacturers are focusing on EMB R&D. From January to June 2024, foreign manufacturers accounted for over 60% of the brake-by-wire market share, with leading overseas companies like Bosch still dominating the EHB sector; many domestic manufacturers are actively laying out EMB R&D Industry Outlook: EMB Mass Production Approaches, Domestic Production Rate of Line Control Braking Industry Expected to Increase

With advancements in technology and regulations, EMB is transitioning from research and development to mass production. The R&D progress of domestic and foreign manufacturers in EMB is similar, and domestic manufacturers can bypass the hydraulic control field where overseas players have an advantage. Domestic companies such as Bertley, APG, Fig Technology, Nansen Technology, Gelubo Technology, Likra Technology, Jingxi Zhixing, Qiangu Technology, Mouxing Technology, Huashen Ruili, Coordinate System, and Jiong Yi Electronics are laying out EMB R&D, and the line control braking industry is expected to increase its domestic production rate with the mass production of EMB.

Risk Warning

Product R&D progress may fall short of expectations; penetration rate increase may be less than expected; sales of new energy vehicles may not meet expectations