Goldman Sachs stated that "the U.S. power grid is extremely strained," and the risks of "rolling blackouts and significant price increases this summer are rising."

With the frequent occurrence of extreme weather and the accelerated transformation of the energy structure, the U.S. power grid is on the brink of collapse. Goldman Sachs recently released a report warning that several regions may experience rolling blackouts and skyrocketing electricity prices this summer.

Goldman Sachs analysts, including Hongcen We, pointed out in the latest report that electricity demand in the U.S. has been growing rapidly in recent years, with an average annual growth rate expected to reach 2.5%, remaining high until 2030.

However, the construction speed of controllable energy sources that support grid stability—such as natural gas and coal-fired power plants—has been severely lagging. Meanwhile, although wind and solar energy are expanding rapidly, they are greatly affected by weather conditions and struggle to provide stable support during peak electricity usage.

The report states that the U.S. will fall below the industry-recommended 20% electricity reserve margin safety line this year, with the national effective backup capacity expected to drop to a shocking 14% by 2027. Once the reserve margin falls below 15%, the reliability risk of the power grid will rise sharply.

The risk of rolling blackouts and significant price increases this summer is rising.

Goldman Sachs analysts predict that in the coming months, due to a severe shortage of backup generation capacity—especially in major grid areas such as PJM (Mid-Atlantic), MISO (Midwest), and ERCOT (Texas)—power shortages may trigger rolling blackouts. Additionally, electricity prices are likely to surge significantly in this scenario, further burdening consumers economically.

PJM Grid (covering the Mid-Atlantic region of the U.S.): May enter a state of emergency this summer, with backup capacity expected to plummet from 15% in 2024 to 6% in 2027.

MISO Grid (Midwest region of the U.S.): Will reach a critical threshold in 2026 due to insufficient increases in generation facilities while demand continues to rise.

ERCOT Grid (Texas): Although temporarily benefiting from renewable energy support, it will also slide into a dangerous range by 2028. Currently, Texas shows the highest price risk premium during peak demand periods.

The report also mentions that the tightening of the electricity market will bring multiple consequences: including increased price volatility, a shift in investment direction towards energy storage and generation facilities, consumers needing to prepare for risk management in advance, and a potential re-examination of coal phase-out and natural gas infrastructure approval issues at the policy level.

The report suggests that regulatory actions may be needed to prevent further coal power shutdowns and to expedite the permitting process for natural gas infrastructure.

This is not the first time an institution has warned about the stability of the U.S. power grid. Previously, PJM had already warned of the risk of power supply gaps this summer in early May