--- title: "Southwest Securities: Supply is orderly, demand is rigid, optimistic about the recovery of fertilizer prosperity" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/244374330.md" description: "Southwest Securities released a research report indicating that with population growth, the demand for food will drive an increase in fertilizer demand. It is expected that global fertilizer consumption will continue to grow by 2025. Urea prices are recovering, leading to improved profitability; the phosphate fertilizer industry chain maintains high prosperity, with phosphate rock supporting prices; potash prices are recovering, and contract prices are being finalized. Related companies such as HUALU-HENGSHENG, YTH, and Asia-potash are expected to benefit. Risks include accelerated phosphate mining capacity release and a decline in urea prices" datetime: "2025-06-13T06:15:02.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/244374330.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/244374330.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/244374330.md) generator: "portal-rs" --- # Southwest Securities: Supply is orderly, demand is rigid, optimistic about the recovery of fertilizer prosperity According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Southwest Securities released a research report stating that population growth supports the demand for food, thereby promoting the increase in fertilizer demand. According to the IFA (International Fertilizer Industry Association) report, global fertilizer consumption is expected to continue to grow by 2025. In recent years, China's fertilizer production has steadily increased, with the output of agricultural nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium fertilizers reaching 60.06 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 8.5%; the output for the first four months of 2025 was 21.34 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.9%. Related stocks: HUALU-HENGSHENG (600426.SH), YTH (600096.SH), Asia-potash (000893.SZ). ## The main points of Southwest Securities are as follows: **Urea: Urea prices are recovering, and profit levels have improved** Since 2025, driven by the demand for fertilizers for spring plowing, urea prices have gradually warmed. On the cost side, coal prices have continued to decline, widening the price gap for urea, and the profitability of urea companies has improved. Future export policies and the pace of new capacity release may be core factors affecting prices. **Phosphate Fertilizer: Phosphate rock maintains high prosperity, supporting the value of the phosphate fertilizer industry chain** In recent years, there has been limited new capacity for ammonium phosphate, and the supply-demand pattern is expected to continue to optimize. Phosphate rock remains the most important support for phosphate fertilizer prices. Although some companies plan to have phosphate rock capacity, considering the generally long construction cycle for phosphate rock and the time needed for capacity ramp-up, phosphate rock is still expected to maintain a tight balance. The firm believes that companies with phosphate rock resources, stable operations, and a well-integrated upstream and downstream layout are likely to continue benefiting. **Potash Fertilizer: Potash fertilizer prosperity is on the rise, and contract prices for potash fertilizer in China and India have been established** Since 2025, potash fertilizer prices have continued to recover. Potash fertilizer is characterized by an oligopoly structure. This year, potash fertilizer companies in Russia and Belarus have announced maintenance successively, increasing supply tightness expectations. On June 4 and June 12, the contract prices for potash fertilizer imports in India and China were set at $349/ton and $346/ton, respectively, establishing the tone for global potash fertilizer prices this year. **Risk Warning:** Accelerated release of phosphate rock capacity may lead to a decline in phosphate rock prices; tightening urea exports and accelerated release of new capacity may lead to a decline in urea prices; risks of new projects not meeting expectations ### Related Stocks - [600426.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/600426.CN.md) - [600096.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/600096.CN.md) - [000893.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/000893.CN.md) - [600369.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/600369.CN.md) ## Related News & Research - [Western Potash Corp. 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