Morgan Stanley: Prescription volume fluctuations do not change the growth trend, maintaining Eli Lilly "Overweight" rating

According to Zhitong Finance APP, Morgan Stanley maintains an "Overweight" rating on Eli Lilly (LLY.US) with a target price of $1,133 based on its closely monitored data from the diabetes/weight loss drug market. Morgan Stanley pointed out that, according to data from the biopharmaceutical development and commercial outsourcing service provider IOVIA, for the week ending June 13, the total prescription volume (TRx)/new prescription volume (NRx) for Eli Lilly's diabetes drug Mounjaro was 577,200/298,900 (down from 591,700/305,800 the previous week); the TRx/NRx for the weight loss drug Zepbound was 432,300/293,900 (down from 436,400/298,700 the previous week). Nevertheless, Morgan Stanley expects a 13% growth potential in the prescription volume for these two drugs by 2025. Morgan Stanley is closely monitoring Eli Lilly's Mounjaro (tirzepatide) for type 2 diabetes (T2D) and Zepbound (tirzepatide) for obesity, as these two products are core to the company's product line. Overall, the TRx for GLP-1 drugs (Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk (NVO.US)) has increased by approximately 41% year-on-year. Morgan Stanley is focused on the impact of Mounjaro + Zepbound on the overall growth of the GLP-1 category and market share dynamics. Eli Lilly's GLP-1 patent portfolio (Mounjaro + Trulicity + Zepbound) has a weekly prescription market share of about 61% (unchanged from the previous week). This week, the TRx for Mounjaro + Trulicity + Zepbound was approximately 1,170,500, down from 1,195,000 the previous week (a week-on-week decrease of 2.1%). This week, the total prescription volume for Mounjaro + Zepbound was approximately 1,009,600, down from 1,028,100 the previous week (a week-on-week decrease of 1.8%). The prescription volume for Zepbound bottled medication this week was approximately 89,900 (down from 92,000 the previous week). During Eli Lilly's Q1 2025 conference call held on May 25, they mentioned that bottled medications through LLY Direct accounted for 10% of Q1 TRx and 25% of new prescriptions. According to this week's data, bottled Zepbound accounts for about 21% of Zepbound TRx