China Post Securities: The global forklift market is showing positive trends, and unmanned forklifts are rapidly increasing in volume

According to the report released by China Postal Securities, the global forklift market is showing a steady growth trend, with shipments exceeding 2.13 million units in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 6.54%; shipments in Q1-Q3 of 2024 are expected to exceed 1.65 million units, a year-on-year increase of 3.75%. As intelligent industrial vehicle robots, unmanned forklifts are expected to bring new growth points. It is recommended to focus on two leading forklift companies, HANGCHA GROUP and AHHL, which have been deeply engaged in the forklift field for many years, have established a relatively complete brand matrix, and are actively laying out overseas channels and intelligent logistics; also pay attention to NOBLELIFT, which has an increasingly complete large vehicle layout, and EP, a newly listed electric forklift company.

The main points of China Postal Securities are as follows:

Forklifts are important equipment for material handling operations, characterized by strong versatility, flexibility, and a large operating range, with a wide range of applications.

Forklifts have loading and handling functions and are important equipment for material handling operations, serving as the main tool for achieving logistics mechanization and improving operational efficiency. Forklifts can be used for lifting, stacking, short-distance transportation, and loading and unloading in various industries such as warehousing logistics, manufacturing, transportation, ports, airports, postal services, tobacco, and food, as well as in military departments and special explosion-proof departments. They can even work in harsh environments inaccessible to personnel or be used in flexible processing systems.

Global forklift shipments exceeded 2.13 million units in 2023, with a year-on-year increase of 6.54%; shipments in Q1-Q3 of 2024 are expected to exceed 1.65 million units, with a year-on-year increase of 3.75%, both showing a steady growth trend.

By vehicle type, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of the three categories of vehicles from 2013 to 2023 is the fastest, followed by the first category of vehicles. In Q1-Q3 of 2024, the shipment volumes for the first, second, third, and fourth + fifth categories of vehicles are expected to be 299,464, 113,892, 836,119, and 407,769 units, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.16%, 6.27%, 13.34%, and -12.29%. Except for fuel forklifts, which are under pressure in sales, other vehicle types have seen growth. By region, Asia has the fastest CAGR from 2013 to 2023, followed by Europe. In Q1-Q3 of 2024, forklift shipments in Europe, America, Asia, Africa, and Oceania are expected to be 497,174, 319,257, 800,647, 15,491, and 24,675 units, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.87%, -0.44%, 5.64%, -9.45%, and -10.44%.

Regarding orders

Europe shows outstanding year-on-year growth, while the Americas are under pressure. From the perspective of orders, the year-on-year growth rate of global forklift orders per quarter from Q4 2023 to Q4 2024 is expected to be 14%, 0%, 4%, 5%, and 5%, remaining in the flat/growth range for five consecutive quarters, with growth rates in Europe of 22%, 6%, 13%, 13%, and 9%, while the Americas show growth rates of -5%, -25%, -21%, 7%, and -6%, and Asia shows growth rates of 17%, 6%, 9%, -1%, and 6%. The firm believes that the order base in the Americas, especially in the United States, is not high in 2024, and that domestic main engine manufacturers have relatively low exposure to revenue from exports to the United States, along with plans for overseas factories, making the impact of the tariff war controllable Annual Data

In 2024, China's forklift sales exceeded 1.28 million units, a year-on-year increase of 9.52%. In terms of model structure, small forklifts contributed significantly, while in terms of regional structure, exports had a large contribution. Specifically, in 2024, a total of 339,251 internal combustion counterbalance forklifts were sold, a year-on-year decrease of 10.06%; a total of 185,942 electric counterbalance forklifts were sold nationwide, a year-on-year increase of 8.90%; and a total of 760,342 electric warehouse forklifts were sold nationwide, a year-on-year increase of 21.49%. In terms of exports, China's forklift export sales exceeded 480,000 units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 18.53%.

Monthly Data

In May, overall forklift sales grew by 11.8%, with domestic sales increasing by 9.25% and export sales increasing by 16.6%; excluding three types of vehicles, growth was 10.41%, with domestic sales increasing by 9.93% and export sales increasing by 11.46%, showing excellent total volume and structure. According to statistics from the China Construction Machinery Industry Association on major forklift manufacturers, a total of 123,472 forklifts of various types were sold in May 2025, a year-on-year increase of 11.8%. Among them, domestic sales were 79,129 units, a year-on-year increase of 9.25%; export volume was 44,343 units, a year-on-year increase of 16.6%. In May 2025, a total of 52,228 forklifts were sold excluding electric walk-behind warehouse vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 10.41%. Among them, domestic sales were 35,662 units, a year-on-year increase of 9.93%; export volume was 16,566 units, a year-on-year increase of 11.46%.

"Unmanned Forklifts," also known as "Forklift AGV," are intelligent industrial vehicle robots. Major manufacturers are actively laying out both internally and externally, which is expected to bring new growth points.

Unmanned forklifts integrate forklift technology and AGV technology. By loading various advanced guidance technologies, mapping algorithms, embedded vehicle body software, and safety avoidance technologies, they can achieve automatic guidance, handling, and stacking functions, thereby realizing unmanned operations of forklifts. The application of unmanned forklifts can solve problems such as high logistics volume and high labor intensity in manual handling during industrial production. A logistics optimization system based on the collaboration of multiple unmanned forklifts can address issues such as excessive passive waiting time and low handling efficiency during the transportation process.

Risk Warning:

Lithium battery adoption may be less than expected; internationalization may be less than expected; risk of intensified competition