Guolian Minsheng Securities: The expectation of domestic demand in the home appliance industry is rising, and leading companies have ample space to cope with exposure to the U.S

According to Zhitong Finance APP, Guolian Minsheng Securities released a research report stating that the progress of fund usage for the old-for-new policy has accelerated in May. However, the diminishing marginal elasticity and funding constraints may concentrate around Q4 2025. The impact of this round of policies is significantly weaker in terms of timing and magnitude compared to the rural appliance policy, and the pressure on the shipment side may be limited. Since the beginning of the year, leading white goods companies have adopted an aggressive online pricing strategy, showing significant elasticity in market share. Under the improved cost environment, profitability is unlikely to be affected, and revenue may see a boost. At the current point in time, expectations for domestic demand in the home appliance industry are upward, and the sector's exposure to the U.S. is not high. The leading companies have ample room to respond through structural upgrades and global capacity layouts, coupled with high-quality operations and high dividends, suggesting a positive outlook on the investment value of home appliances.

Guolian Minsheng Securities' main viewpoints are as follows:

Market Review from the Beginning of the Year: Neither Wind nor Rain

Since 2025, the home appliance sector has been affected by tariffs and style suppression, with a slight cumulative increase of 0.1% from the beginning of the year to June 5, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.6 percentage points, ranking 17th among primary industries. Over the past 20 years, the sector has outperformed the CSI 300 Index 16 times during the same period, maintaining a high win rate. Both domestic and foreign sales expectations are positive, and the valuation dividend yield advantage remains.

White Goods: Positive Domestic and Foreign Expectations, Aggressive Strategies from Leaders

It is expected that the domestic demand environment for white goods will improve, with a lower shipment base and a potential upward trend. The progress of fund usage for the old-for-new policy has accelerated in May, while the diminishing marginal elasticity and funding constraints may concentrate around Q4 2025. However, the impact of this round of policies is significantly weaker compared to the rural appliance policy, and the pressure on the shipment side may be limited. Since the beginning of the year, leading white goods companies have adopted an aggressive online pricing strategy, showing significant elasticity in market share. Under the improved cost environment, profitability is unlikely to be affected, and revenue may see a boost. In May, tariff negotiation space opened up, and foreign sales are expected to return to stability after digesting the impact of export rush.

Black Goods: Stable Demand, Profitability of Leaders Worth Attention

Since 2025, the overall demand for TVs has continued to show weak recovery. On this basis, MiniLED backlit TVs have become the core driving force for product upgrades in domestic sales. In the domestic market, TCL and Hisense have performed strongly, with Hisense's MiniLED backlit TV market share increasing rapidly. Overseas, emerging markets are experiencing stable growth, while developed markets face short-term fluctuations. Leaders may effectively respond to tariff risks through global capacity layouts, continuing to grow in the uneven global TV market.

In terms of profitability, benefiting from product structure upgrades and stable panel prices, the industry's profitability is expected to gradually improve. With the increase in industry concentration and continuous technological upgrades, the profitability of leading color TV companies is likely to continue optimizing.

Emerging Small Appliances: High Demand Growth, Competition May Differentiate Internally and Externally

The sweeping robot has driven high growth in emerging small appliances' domestic and foreign sales since 2025, mainly benefiting from subsidies and product innovation. Short-term changes in local subsidy policies may have limited impact. Additionally, categories such as floor washing machines and smart projectors continue to grow. In this context, the intensity of competition in domestic and foreign sales may differentiate, with Roborock performing particularly well in domestic sales. The company's strategy is expected to be relatively aggressive, while its overseas market product launches and pricing strategy remain strong. Amid uncertainties in tariff policies and challenges from competitors, market share is expected to remain stable compared to Q4 2024, reflecting that the intensity of foreign sales competition may be at a temporary low. Future key marketing nodes and industry competition strategies still warrant attention Kitchen Appliances: Small Appliances May See Improvement, Large Appliances Await Windfall

Since 2025, kitchen small appliances have shown signs of stabilization after a long adjustment period, with domestic sales rebounding from a low base, mainly driven by eased competition and new products, as well as gradually lifted price suppression factors. On this basis, leading companies may welcome a new round of growth by laying out new product directions or leveraging new consumption trends. Demand for large appliances is gradually improving under policy support, but the recovery of the real estate market remains key to subsequent demand restoration. Currently, the industry is shifting from new housing-driven demand to replacement-driven demand. In this context, leading companies are expected to achieve better growth through mid-to-high-end products, channel expansion, and new categories.

Maintain "Outperform Market" Rating for the Industry

At this point, the expectation for domestic demand in the home appliance industry is upward, and the sector's exposure to the U.S. is not high. Leading companies have ample room to respond through structural upgrades and global capacity layout, coupled with high-quality operations and high dividends. It is recommended to actively pay attention to the investment value of home appliances.

Key Targets: First, recommend high-quality, high-dividend white goods leaders Gree Electric Appliances (000651.SZ), Midea Group (000333.SZ), Haier Smart Home (600690.SH), and Hisense H.A. (000921.SZ); second, recommend leading color TV brand and product strength Hisense Visual (600060.SH), and pay attention to TCL Electronics (01070); third, recommend small appliances benefiting from new consumption and the 618 shopping festival, such as BEAR APPLIANCE (002959.SZ) and Supor (002032.SZ).

Risk Warning

Policy implementation may fall short of expectations, significant increases in raw material costs, and uncertainties in tariffs and external demand