Dongfang Securities: AI Empowers New Changes in Logistics, Unmanned Forklifts Lead Intelligent Upgrades

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Dongfang Securities released a research report stating that the development of unmanned forklifts in China has undergone a process from simple automation transformation to technological innovation and diversification. Currently, technological innovation has become the core driving force for the development of unmanned forklifts, and in the future, AI empowerment is expected to become the core of technological innovation for unmanned forklifts. Recently, the firm has observed an acceleration in the progress of the intelligent logistics industry, with leading companies intensifying their layouts. The firm believes that the forklift industry may be at the starting point of a new narrative of comprehensive intelligence development. The industry fundamentals are stable and improving, with electrification and globalization providing a solid foundation for intelligent development. It is recommended to pay attention to leading companies in the forklift equipment sector that are stable and beginning to accelerate their layouts in embodied intelligence, smart logistics, unmanned forklifts, intelligent logistics robots, and other intelligent businesses.

The main points of Dongfang Securities are as follows:

With the rapid development of embodied intelligence, the market is increasingly focused on future landing scenarios

In various scenarios on the C-end or B-end, the firm believes that logistics handling scenarios are likely to become the first landing scenarios for embodied intelligent robots. From the perspective of robot landing, the logistics industry has the following important characteristics: 1) The workload inside and outside factories is enormous, and the future market space is vast; 2) Tasks such as handling and picking are relatively simple, with fewer action patterns and interaction modes, and the complexity is lower than that of the C-end; 3) The replicability of action content is strong, as action norms are similar across industries and enterprises, making it easier to achieve migration and generalization; 4) Currently, logistics handling and picking tasks rely heavily on manual labor, and logistics robots can replace manual labor and liberate the workforce in primary tasks. Some believe that humanoid robots will start from the C-end, while the firm believes that B-end logistics handling is likely to become the first landing scenario for embodied intelligent robots.

Sufficient application scenarios for forklifts, unmanned forklift development is in full swing, and AI is expected to become the core of technological development

The large number of forklifts and the diverse and decentralized downstream provide rich application and verification scenarios for the development of intelligent logistics robots. Unmanned forklifts integrate forklift technology and AGV technology, addressing issues such as high logistics volume and high manual handling intensity in industrial production and warehousing logistics operations. They have now entered a period of rapid development, but are still in the early stages of increasing penetration rates. Currently, technological innovation has become the core driving force for the development of unmanned forklifts, and the firm believes that AI is expected to become its core. The cost advantages of unmanned forklifts have already emerged, and if they replace 10-50% of existing forklift sales in the long term, they will create a market space of 7 billion to 70 billion in both domestic and global markets.

Industry progress accelerates, and the industry may be at the starting point of a new round of development narrative

Recently, leading companies have intensified their layouts in intelligent logistics, indicating that large-scale commercial applications are about to arrive after cost optimization. Anhui HeLi is horizontally integrating industry resources while vertically empowering downstream, enhancing the strength of its intelligent logistics business segment in all aspects. HANGCHA GROUP has accumulated experience in the intelligent logistics field and is expected to lay out humanoid logistics robots this year. Zhongli Co., Ltd. is advancing through three levels, continuously iterating mobile robot products, and will launch embodied material mobile robots by the end of June this year. NOBLELIFT had previously laid out intelligent logistics business, and in April this year, it also clearly entered the field of embodied intelligent logistics robots. After years of technological exploration and industrial verification in intelligent logistics, the forklift industry may be at the starting point of a new narrative of comprehensive intelligence development The forklift industry shows resilient growth, and a solid fundamental provides a safety net for intelligent upgrades

From January to May 2025, forklift sales slightly exceeded expectations, and the industry believes that growth in the second half of the year will still have certain sustainability. Electrification is a definite trend in the industry, with the penetration rate of electric forklifts in China continuously increasing. The rise in the application of electric forklifts is the cornerstone for further intelligence in the future. In recent years, Chinese forklifts have actively expanded globally, with exports becoming an important pillar of the Chinese forklift industry. Europe and America are the main regions for Chinese forklift exports. However, the market share of Chinese forklifts in Europe and America is relatively low, providing space for continued growth in export volume and intelligent expansion.

Risk Warning

The development of forklift intelligence may fall short of expectations, macroeconomic growth may be lower than expected, the increase in electrification rate may not meet expectations, international trade policies and exchange rate fluctuations, and changes in assumptions may affect calculation results