Cathay Securities and Haitong Securities: Forklift domestic sales and large vehicle sales maintain high growth, focusing on demand in the European and American markets & embodied intelligence catalysis

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Guotai Haitong released a research report stating that the forklift industry maintained good growth in sales in June, especially with impressive growth rates in large forklift sales. The current recovery in the manufacturing sector is expected to have a positive impact on forklift sales, while domestic brands are continuously opening up overseas market space due to their cost-performance advantages, leading to a stable and positive industry fundamental. In addition, recent developments in embodied intelligence by forklift companies are expected to usher in a period of fundamental stabilization and resonance with the robotics market in the second half of the year, with unmanned forklifts likely entering a rapid development phase. Recommended stocks: Anhui HeLi (600761.SH), Hangcha Group (603298.SH), Zhongli Co., Ltd. (603194.SH).

Guotai Haitong's main viewpoints are as follows:

From working hours and operating rates, the demand for forklift usage is strong

According to the WeChat official account of the China Construction Machinery Industry Association, in June, the main products of construction machinery had an average working time of 77.2 hours, while forklifts had an average working time of 92.7 hours; the operating rate for main construction machinery products was 57%, and for forklifts, it was 53%. From the perspective of industry sales growth rates, the forklift industry’s exports continue to maintain rapid growth, while domestic sales have shown good recovery, especially for forklifts excluding electric walk-behind warehouse vehicles.

According to the WeChat official account of the China Construction Machinery Industry Association, from January to June, forklift industry sales reached 739,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 11.7%, with domestic sales of 476,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%, and exports of 263,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 15.2%; looking at June alone, industry sales were 138,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 23.1%, with domestic sales of 84,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 27.3%, and exports of 54,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 17.2%. By model type, in June, forklift sales excluding electric walk-behind warehouse vehicles were 53,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 14.5%, of which domestic sales were 35,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 15.3%, and exports were 18,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 13%.

In terms of exports by region, there was a recovery in North America and Western Europe in June

According to customs export data (in USD) compiled by Guotai Haitong, in June, the export value of the forklift industry to North America and Western Europe increased by 1.17% and 28.81% year-on-year, respectively, showing a significant improvement compared to the year-on-year growth rates in May; in June, the export value of the forklift industry to North America and Western Europe accounted for 18.02% and 14.03% of total export value, respectively, with the proportion to North America increasing by about 11 percentage points compared to May, while the proportion to Western Europe slightly decreased compared to May.

Guotai Haitong believes that the increase in exports to North America may be related to the easing of U.S. tariff policies; the increase in exports to Western Europe may be related to stimulus policies introduced by relevant countries, such as Germany's large-scale tax reduction plan, especially accelerated depreciation, reduced corporate income tax, and incentives for research and development, which are conducive to stimulating corporate investment and promoting economic growth. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, if tariff levels stabilize and European and American governments increase industrial stimulus efforts, forklift exports, as transfer equipment for manufacturing and logistics, are expected to maintain rapid growth.

Leading companies accelerate embodied intelligence deployment, focus on unmanned forklift catalysts

Guotai Haitong pointed out that forklift companies are accelerating the deployment of embodied intelligence, and unmanned forklifts may enter a rapid development phase. For example, Hangcha Group announced that its subsidiary Hangcha Intelligent acquired Guozhi Robotics, further integrating relevant resources in the upstream and downstream of intelligent logistics, enhancing Hangcha Group's overall solution capabilities and market channel expansion capabilities in the field of intelligent logistics Risk Warning

Macroeconomic development is below expectations; intensified industry competition; international trade friction; data statistical errors