--- title: "KaiYuan Securities: The expansion of the polyester industry has reached its end, and bottom-line profits are expected to rise" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/249898391.md" description: "KaiYuan Securities released a research report indicating that the expansion cycle of polyester filament is coming to an end, with new capacity concentrated in leading enterprises, leading to an increase in industry concentration. It is expected that in 2024, the prices and profitability of polyester filament will improve, and the industry's self-discipline will abolish the \"fixed price\" model, allowing for flexible adjustments. Despite the impact of Trump's tariff policy, the industry's profitability remains strong. In the short to medium term, the industry is optimistic about joint production cuts, and the profit per ton of filament is expected to recover. In the long term, the industry is optimistic about the optimization of the industry structure and the improvement of profitability" datetime: "2025-07-24T07:28:03.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/249898391.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/249898391.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/249898391.md) generator: "portal-rs" --- # KaiYuan Securities: The expansion of the polyester industry has reached its end, and bottom-line profits are expected to rise According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Kaiyuan Securities released a research report stating that as a pioneer in "anti-involution" in the chemical industry, polyester filament will take the lead in implementing industry self-discipline through measures such as "fixed pricing" in May 2024. This has significantly improved the price and profitability of polyester filament. Entering 2025, this self-discipline behavior will cancel the "fixed pricing" model, making it more practical and flexible. Despite the significant fluctuations in downstream demand and upstream raw materials affected by Trump's tariff policy in April and May, the industry still maintained strong profitability resilience. In the short to medium term, the industry is optimistic about the joint production cuts, and the profit per ton in the filament industry is expected to recover upward, with industry profitability likely to be significantly enhanced. ## Key points from Kaiyuan Securities are as follows: **The expansion cycle of polyester filament has reached its end, with new capacity concentrated in leading companies, further increasing concentration among leaders** The polyester filament industry has bid farewell to the high-speed expansion period, with industry capacity increasing from 21.03 million tons in 2014 to 41.28 million tons in 2023, achieving an average annual compound growth rate of 7.78%. However, the new capacity in 2024 is only 970,000 tons, with a year-on-year growth rate plummeting to 2.35%. The planned new capacity of 1.55 million tons in 2025 will also be released solely by the two leading companies, TKGF and XfmGroup, with an orderly production pace. As a result, the industry's concentration has further increased in recent years, with the CR6 rising from about 85% in 2023 to 87% in 2024, enhancing the leading companies' dominance in the industry. Looking ahead to 2026, potential new capacity will still be mainly concentrated in TKGF and XfmGroup. The long-term outlook remains optimistic, with the polyester filament industry structure expected to optimize and profitability likely to continue to recover. **Stable downstream demand for polyester filament in textiles and apparel, with significant growth in direct exports, driving steady upward demand for filament** Global demand for textiles and apparel remains stable, providing good support for polyester filament demand. Domestically, from January to June 2025, retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles, and textiles increased by 3.10% year-on-year, driving a 5.37% year-on-year increase in apparent consumption of polyester filament. The domestic market shows a steady growth trend. The direct export performance of filament is impressive, with polyester filament exports reaching 1.7652 million tons from January to June 2025, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 14.18%, indicating strong growth in direct exports of polyester filament. In terms of terminal clothing exports, as of June 2025, the cumulative decline in the export amount of clothing and apparel accessories has narrowed to 0.2%, with a clear trend of recovery in overseas clothing orders. In addition, U.S. apparel fabric wholesalers continue to reduce inventory. After a year of destocking in 2024, inventory levels have basically returned to normal. Since April 2024, monthly sales in U.S. clothing and accessories stores have maintained positive growth. As a major global clothing consumption market, the good growth rate of clothing consumption in the U.S. will also drive steady growth in polyester filament demand. **Industry self-discipline is ongoing, which may help polyester filament profitability continue to recover** As a pioneer in "anti-involution" in the chemical industry, polyester filament will take the lead in implementing industry self-discipline through measures such as "fixed pricing" in May 2024, significantly improving the price and profitability of polyester filament. On July 7, 2024, the price spreads of POY, FDY, and DTY increased by 571, 421, and 371 yuan/ton, respectively, compared to the low points on May 20, 2024; However, affected by the significant drop in crude oil prices in July and the sluggish operating rates in downstream sectors, companies are in a state of panic regarding their business mindset, competing to lower prices for sales, and this industry self-discipline has ended in failure. Entering 2025, this industry self-discipline has eliminated the "fixed price" model, making it more practical and flexible. In the context of significant fluctuations in downstream demand and upstream raw materials due to Trump's tariff policy in April and May, the industry still maintained strong profit resilience. In the short to medium term, the industry is optimistic about the background of joint production cuts, and the profit per ton in the filament industry is expected to recover upwards, with industry profitability likely to significantly enhance; in the long term, there is a firm optimism regarding the slowdown in the release of new production capacity in the filament industry, mainly concentrated in the leading companies TKGF and XfmGroup, with the industry structure continuously optimizing and the profit capability per ton in the filament sector expected to gradually increase. **Beneficiary Targets** XfmGroup (603225.SH), TKGF (601233.SH), Hengli Petrochemical (600346.SH), Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493.SZ), Hengyi Petrochemical (000703.SZ), Dongfang Shenghong (000301.SZ). **Risk Warning** Significant fluctuations in crude oil prices, downstream demand not meeting expectations, adjustments in trade protection policies, and industry synergy effects not meeting expectations ### Related Stocks - [601233.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/601233.CN.md) - [603225.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/603225.CN.md) ## Related News & Research - [Hangcha Group: Revenue and profit rose over 8% year-over-year, with robust growth in new energy and global markets](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296900819.md) - [US plans to revoke tourism and business visas of up to 200,000 foreigners, AP reports](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296828527.md) - [BABA-W Grants 1.93M Award Shares](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296803955.md) - [Saudi-listed Al Yamamah Steel unit secures $133.3mln facility from ANB](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296857306.md) - [KINGBOARD HLDG Chairman Confident Both Companies Will Earn HKD10B This Yr, Says HK Stocks Attractive, Private Investments Gain HKD2.1B YTD](https://longbridge.com/en/news/296767337.md) --- > **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**