--- title: "Morgan Stanley: The market's hot topic CoWoP is unlikely to be adopted in NVIDIA's next-generation GPU" description: "Morgan Stanley believes that the transition from CoWoS to CoWoP still faces significant technical challenges, and the reliance on ABF substrates is unlikely to change in the short term. The complexity" type: "news" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/250701766.md" published_at: "2025-07-30T03:53:50.000Z" --- # Morgan Stanley: The market's hot topic CoWoP is unlikely to be adopted in NVIDIA's next-generation GPU > Morgan Stanley believes that the transition from CoWoS to CoWoP still faces significant technical challenges, and the reliance on ABF substrates is unlikely to change in the short term. The complexity of the technological transition and the risks associated with supply chain restructuring make large-scale adoption of CoWoP unrealistic in the short term. However, the firm does not rule out the possibility that NVIDIA is concurrently developing CoWoP technology Despite the market's hype around chip-level wafer-level packaging (CoWoP) technology, the likelihood of NVIDIA's next-generation GPU product Rubin Ultra adopting this technology is low. On July 30, according to news from the Wind Trading Desk, Morgan Stanley's latest research shows that NVIDIA's Rubin Ultra will continue to use the existing ABF substrate technology rather than switching to the CoWoP solution. Morgan Stanley analysts believe that the transition from CoWoS to CoWoP still faces significant technical challenges, and the reliance on ABF substrates is unlikely to change in the short term. The research report points out that **the complexity of technological conversion and the risks of supply chain restructuring make large-scale adoption of CoWoP unrealistic in the short term**. However, Morgan Stanley believes that **although large-scale application is unlikely in the short term, it cannot be ruled out that NVIDIA is concurrently developing CoWoP technology**. ## **High Technical Barriers: CoWoP Faces Process Challenges** CoWoP technology requires the line/space (L/S) of the PCB (printed circuit board) to be reduced to below 10/10 microns, which is comparable to the current standards of ABF substrates. Morgan Stanley stated in the research report that the current L/S of high-density interconnect (HDI) PCBs is 40/50 microns, and even the substrate-like PCBs (SLP) used for iPhone motherboards only reach 20/35 microns. Reducing the L/S of PCBs from 20/35 microns to below 10/10 microns presents significant technical difficulties. Morgan Stanley analyst Howard Kao pointed out that **this technical barrier is one of the main reasons why Rubin Ultra is unlikely to adopt CoWoP**. Morgan Stanley's research shows that the next-generation GPU still relies on traditional packaging paths, meaning that Rubin and Rubin Ultra will continue to use ABF substrates. The ABF substrate of Rubin Ultra is larger and has more layers compared to Rubin, which is contrary to the technical path of CoWoP. ## **Supply Chain Risks Hinder Technological Transition** In addition to the complexity of the technology, Morgan Stanley also stated that transitioning from CoWoS to CoWoP would bring significant yield risks and related supply chain restructuring. Considering that the target product will enter mass production within a year, this technological transition is not commercially logical. Morgan Stanley noted that TSMC's CoWoS yield is currently close to 100%, and switching technologies based on such a high yield presents unnecessary risks. The analysts believe that technological conversion not only involves changes in process technology but will also affect **the reconfiguration of the entire supply chain ecosystem, which has high complexity and risks for implementation in the short term**. ## CoWoP Technology Still Holds Potential Advantages Although large-scale application is unlikely in the short term, CoWoP technology still has potential advantages. According to previous articles from Jianwen, the advantages of CoWoP technology include: > The signal path is shorter, reducing attenuation and loss; heat dissipation performance is significantly improved, suitable for >1000W level GPUs; power integrity is better, and response speed is faster; it addresses the capacity bottleneck issue of organic substrates. Morgan Stanley stated that the goals of adopting CoWoP include solving the substrate warping issue, increasing the NVLink coverage on the PCB without the need for a substrate between the chip and the PCB, achieving higher heat dissipation efficiency without the need for a packaging lid, and eliminating capacity bottlenecks of certain packaging materials. In addition, the analysts do not rule out the possibility that NVIDIA is concurrently developing CoWoP technology as a supplement to the current mass production technology to address substrate warping issues, resolve supply tightness of specific packaging materials, or simplify GPU board manufacturing processes ### Related Stocks - [NVDA.US - NVIDIA](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDA.US.md) - [NVDL.US - GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDL.US.md) - [07788.HK - XL2CSOPNVDA](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/07788.HK.md) - [07388.HK - XI2CSOPNVDA](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/07388.HK.md) - [NVDY.US - YieldMax NVDA Option Income Strategy ETF](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDY.US.md) - [NVDD.US - Direxion Daily NVDA Bear 1X ETF](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDD.US.md) - [NVDX.US - T-Rex 2X Long NVIDIA Daily Target ETF](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDX.US.md) - [NVDQ.US - T-Rex 2X Inverse NVIDIA Daily Target ETF](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDQ.US.md) - [SOXL.US - Direxion Semicon Bull 3X](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/SOXL.US.md) ## Related News & Research | Title | Description | URL | |-------|-------------|-----| | 机构 “最超配” 闪迪，“最低配” 英伟达 | 据摩根士丹利最新的统计：“机构对美国大型科技股的低配程度是 17 年来最大的” 相比 2025 年 Q4 的标普 500 指数权重，“$NVDA 仍然是机构低配程度最大的大型科技股，其次是苹果、微软、亚马逊和博通，而存储巨头闪迪则是 “最超 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276289765.md) | | 黄仁勋预告 “前所未见” 的芯片新品，下一代 Feynman 架构或成焦点 | 黄仁勋预告今年的 GTC 大会上发布” 世界从未见过” 的全新芯片产品，分析认为新品可能涉及 Rubin 系列衍生产品或更具革命性的 Feynman 架构芯片，市场预期 Feynman 架构将针对推理场景进行深度优化。 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276310964.md) | | LPDDR 6 时代来临！AI 需求太猛，下一代 DRAM 将比预期更快进入市场 | LPDDR6 性能较前代提升 1.5 倍，最快下半年正式商用，英伟达、三星及高通等巨头正积极布局。目前多数 HPC 半导体设计企业考虑并行搭载 LPDDR5X 及 LPDDR6 IP，特别是在 4 纳米及以下先进制程芯片的设计中，需求出现得 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276431575.md) | | 为 AI 交易 “背书”！OpenAI 正敲定新一轮融资：以 8300 亿美元估值募资高达 1000 亿美元 | OpenAI 正以 8300 亿美元估值推进新一轮融资，目标筹集 1000 亿美元。软银拟领投 300 亿美元，亚马逊和英伟达可能各投 500 亿及 300 亿美元，微软拟投数十亿美元。本轮融资是 OpenAI 自去年秋季公司制改革以来的首 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276298180.md) | | 学习英伟达刺激芯片销售，AMD 为 “AI 云” 借款做担保 | AMD 为扩大市场份额祭出金融 “狠招”！为初创公司 Crusoe 的 3 亿美元购芯贷款提供担保，承诺在其无客户时 “兜底” 租用芯片。这一复刻英伟达 “租卡云” 路径的策略虽能短期推高销量，但也令 AMD 在 AI 需求放缓时面临更大的 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276401504.md) | --- > **Disclaimer**: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.