--- title: "China Galaxy Securities: Polyester filament capacity tends to concentrate, industry self-discipline stimulates cyclical elasticity" type: "News" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/251119852.md" description: "China Galaxy Securities released a research report indicating that the polyester filament industry is becoming increasingly concentrated, and industry self-discipline will stimulate cyclical elasticity. Currently, the raw material inventory and grey fabric inventory of polyester filament production and weaving enterprises are relatively low, and it is expected that the demand peak season will start in August. In the long term, the demand growth rate for polyester filament is steady, the industry supply will be more orderly, and there is room for price recovery. In 2024, the industry's actual production capacity will decline for the first time, and the competitive advantages of leading enterprises will gradually become apparent" datetime: "2025-08-01T06:12:05.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/251119852.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/251119852.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/251119852.md) generator: "portal-rs" --- # China Galaxy Securities: Polyester filament capacity tends to concentrate, industry self-discipline stimulates cyclical elasticity According to the Zhitong Finance APP, China Galaxy Securities released a research report stating that in the long term, the demand growth for polyester filament in the terminal textile and apparel sector is relatively stable, the peak of industry production has passed, and under the self-discipline of leading companies, future industry supply may be more orderly. Currently, the price difference of polyester filament is still operating at a historically low level, with room for upward correction. In the short term, the raw material inventory and grey fabric inventory of polyester filament production and weaving enterprises are both at relatively low levels. According to seasonal patterns, the demand peak in the second half of the year is expected to gradually start from August. In addition, the expectation of crude oil inventory accumulation in Q4 2025 is currently difficult to falsify, and the upward space on the cost side is limited. The "anti-involution" trend makes the cyclical elasticity of polyester filament worth paying attention to. ## The main viewpoints of China Galaxy Securities are as follows: **Polyester Filament: One of the Important Varieties of Synthetic Fibers** Polyester, also known as polyester fiber, is a synthetic fiber obtained by the polycondensation of PTA and MEG as raw materials. The polyester filament industry chain is upstream connected to petrochemicals and downstream connected to textiles and apparel. According to Zhuochuang Information, in 2024, 50% of polyester filament will be used for apparel textiles, 31% for decorative textiles, and 19% for product textiles. **Supply: Capacity Growth Gradually Slows, Leading Market Share Tends to Rise** In recent years, supported by the "refining and chemical integration" layout of private leading enterprises and domestic consumption and export demand, the capacity of each link in the PX-PTA-polyester chain has expanded significantly. As a major polyester product, polyester filament has entered a rapid expansion period, with new capacity mainly concentrated in leading enterprises. According to Zhuochuang Information data, the industry CR4 in 2024 is 60.2%, an increase of 18.3 percentage points compared to 2019. 2023 is the peak of polyester filament capacity expansion, and in 2024, the actual industry capacity is expected to decline for the first time. Under industry self-discipline, future supply increments are expected to be more orderly. In the long term, market benefits, policy guidance, and industry self-discipline are expected to dominate the industry supply pattern, and the competitive advantages of integrated leading enterprises are expected to gradually emerge. **Demand: Textile and Apparel Growth Relatively Stable, Seize Seasonal Fluctuations** In the medium to long term, global textile and apparel consumption shows resilience and is expected to grow steadily. In the first half of 2025, the retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles, and textiles in China increased by 3.1% year-on-year, and the cumulative export value of textiles and apparel in China increased by 0.8% year-on-year, remaining relatively stable overall. On the other hand, China's polyester filament exports account for about 10% of apparent consumption, with a CAGR of 9.6% from 2017 to 2024. In the first half of 2025, China's polyester filament increased by 10.8% year-on-year, still maintaining a good momentum. In the short term, the peak season for polyester filament is expected to gradually start in August. Currently, the inventory levels in the polyester filament, weaving, and grey fabric sectors are all relatively low. As autumn and winter orders are gradually placed, it is expected that there is still room for downstream stocking, and the demand momentum for polyester filament is expected to seasonally strengthen. **Cost: Raw Material Supply and Demand Expectations are Weak, Pay Attention to Oil Price Guidance** PX and PTA are both products from the oil route. With the rapid development of domestic private refining and chemical integration since 2018, China's PX and PTA industries have entered a capacity expansion period. The import dependence of PX has decreased from 60.8% in 2018 to 20.0% in 2024, and PTA has shifted from net imports to net exports. The industry's excess pressure is gradually becoming apparent, and profits are being gradually compressed, with the absolute prices of PX and PTA increasingly correlated with oil prices In the short term, crude oil prices are supported by strong performance due to the consumption peak season combined with geopolitical uncertainties. However, the expectation of global oil inventory accumulation in Q4 2025 is difficult to disprove, limiting the upward space for oil prices. The cost pressure on polyester filament in the long term is expected to gradually ease. **Profitability: The industry has a foundation of self-discipline, and the bottom of the price difference shows resilience** China's polyester filament industry has good self-discipline experience. Since May 2024, leading companies have flexibly adjusted market supply through measures such as "production limits to maintain prices" and "coordinating operating rates" to achieve the goals of reducing inventory and restoring profits. From the execution effect, the price difference of polyester filament has rebounded from the low point in 2023, especially under the complex international trade situation in H1 2025, the price difference of mainstream polyester filament POY still maintains strong profitability resilience. **Target aspects** It is recommended to pay attention to XfmGroup (603225.SH), TKGF (601233.SH), and HYPC (000703.SZ). **Risk factors** Risk of significant raw material price increases: The level of crude oil prices greatly affects the profitability of the chemical industry. If geopolitical conflicts escalate, it may lead to unexpected losses in crude oil supply, significantly raising international oil prices and exacerbating cost pressures for most chemical companies, which could adversely affect their profitability. Risk of downstream demand falling short of expectations: In the overall supply-demand imbalance of chemical products, if the implementation of policies to stimulate domestic demand is not ideal and terminal demand continues to show weakness, it may reduce the bargaining power of chemical companies, thereby lowering chemical product prices and price differences, adversely affecting the profitability of the chemical industry. Risk of project production not meeting expectations: Under the tightening of safety and environmental protection regulations, the approval and construction cycles for chemical product capacity construction projects are generally extended. If the production progress of new projects does not meet expectations, it may affect the performance release of related companies in the current period. Risk of intensified international trade frictions: China's textile and apparel industry has a high degree of external dependence. If international trade frictions escalate, it may put pressure on the terminal demand for polyester filament, indirectly affecting the normal production and operation of upstream polyester filament companies ### Related Stocks - [603225.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/603225.CN.md) - [601233.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/601233.CN.md) - [000703.CN](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/000703.CN.md) ## Related News & Research - [Haier Smart Home files HKEX next-day disclosure return on share cancellation](https://longbridge.com/en/news/297630042.md) - [Canada's Source Rock Royalties Q2 revenue jumps to record on higher oil prices](https://longbridge.com/en/news/297515616.md) - [China Resources Pharma unit KPC wins registration to issue RMB 1 billion in medium-term notes](https://longbridge.com/en/news/297630970.md) - [Canadian Solar Beats on Revenue, But Investors Face Softer Q3 Setup](https://longbridge.com/en/news/297210332.md) - [US says no ships hit mines in Strait of Hormuz](https://longbridge.com/en/news/297523587.md) --- > **Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.**