--- title: "Three Ways a Rally Ends – Only One Makes You Money" description: "The Nasdaq and S&P are nearing all-time highs, driven by strong Big Tech earnings and rising FOMO. Macro investing expert Eric Fry compares market rallies to beach volleyball, emphasizing that not all" type: "news" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/251344654.md" published_at: "2025-08-03T16:00:00.000Z" --- # Three Ways a Rally Ends – Only One Makes You Money > The Nasdaq and S&P are nearing all-time highs, driven by strong Big Tech earnings and rising FOMO. Macro investing expert Eric Fry compares market rallies to beach volleyball, emphasizing that not all rallies end positively. He warns against high-valuation stocks like Nvidia and suggests focusing on companies with solid fundamentals. Fry highlights the importance of cautious investing, especially as some stocks may have surged too quickly, while others are beginning to falter mid-rally. He encourages readers to seek out companies poised for real, lasting gains. **Editor’s Note:** The Nasdaq and S&P aren’t far below all-time highs. Big Tech earnings, overall, are wowing Wall Street. And FOMO is rising. But as we’ve seen before, not every rally ends well. Today, we’re turning over the *Digest* to our macro investing expert Eric Fry for a timely take on what’s unfolding in the markets. In his essay below, Eric draws an unexpected – but surprisingly revealing – analogy between his decades playing beach volleyball in Southern California and navigating today’s investment landscape. You’ll see why some stocks soaring right now may have run too far, too fast… why others are starting to break down mid-rally… and why only a select few have the fundamentals in place to deliver real, lasting gains. If you want to avoid the AI hype stocks and find the companies with strong footing and room to run before their next earnings drop, today’s *Digest* is essential reading. Enough introduction. I’ll let Eric take it from here. Have a good weekend, Jeff Remsburg * * * I’m a native Southern Californian, so it probably won’t surprise you to hear that I’m an avid beach volleyball player. In fact, I’ve been playing for decades, and spent my “crazy youth” of the 1980s at the volleyball nets ofCalifornia’s beaches. Although I have jokingly referred to the sport as my “real job,” the truth is that playing volleyball has similarities to playing the market, especially during a rally. Like the one we’re experiencing right now. On Friday, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indexes both hit record highs during intraday trading. They started out even higher today largely due to optimism surrounding yesterday’s trade agreement between the United States and European Union This upward trend may continue this week, as several big tech companies deliver earnings. While the “fear of missing out” may have you wanting to participate in this rally, you should still do so cautiously. Here’s what my time at the net has taught me about smart investing… Beach volleyball, like the markets, also consists of rallies. In the sandy game, though, a rally is the sequence of hits back and forth between teams during any given point. A volleyball rally always starts with a serve – and it ends in only one of three ways… **1.** **The ball lands out of bounds.** From an investing angle, you can think of this as companies with sky-high valuations. While these firms may seem attractive to investors, like **Nvidia Corp. (****NVDA****)**, the truth is that their valuations are overshot, landing them in the stratosphere. For instance, Nvidia’s market cap sits at $4.23 trillion, the highest in the *world*. It is currently trading for 56X its trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, or about double the market average. I recommend avoiding out-of-bounds stocks like these because their high valuations yield to low valuations… eventually. Instead, you’ll want to focus on companies that land squarely within the winning parameters of the court. That is why I look for companies that have a promising runway built by strong fundamentals – attractive valuations. In fact, I recommend one such company *over* Nvidia. And it is set to report its second quarter earnings for 2025 tomorrow, July 29. Analysts expect this company to beat estimates with over 20% year-over-year earnings growth and nearly 7% year-over-year revenue growth. **You can learn how to access all of the details about this company – before its earnings call – by clicking here.** This brings me to the second way a volleyball rally… **2.** **A team commits a fault**, like failing to return the ball over the net. You can think of this as companies that miss the mark. Like **Tesla Inc. (****TSLA****)**, as **we talked about in last Saturday’s *Smart Money***. The company announced last week that it missed both top and bottom lines for the second quarter of 2025. This is largely due to declining vehicle sales. CEO Elon Musk said that the company “probably could have a few rough quarters” ahead. What’s more, Tesla is well behind the pace needed to meet its stated goal of producing at least 5,000 Optimus robots this year. The company has so far only produced a few hundred. Tesla is failing to return and is, therefore, not a stock that we want in our portfolios. I’ve got my eye instead on a company that is successfully sailing over the net. It’s a robotics company that is a direct competitor to Tesla, and its current backlog means there’s another $23 billion in future sales already baked in the cake. **You can learn the name of this company, for free, here.** Of course, the most favorable way to end a beach volleyball rally for the serving team is when… **3\. A point is scored.** You don’t have to be a beach volleyball fan, or even a sports fan in general, to know that scoring a point is the only way to win. Of course, as investors, we also want to “win” the rally. The best way to do that is to play it right. You don’t want to stock up on overvalued or faulty companies. In fact, I recommend *selling* those types of stocks if they are in your portfolio right now. You want to invest in the right stocks at the right time. That’s why I’ve **compiled a list of three companies that I believe are “Buys.”** These are under-the-radar, early opportunities that can help you protect and multiply your money during make-or-break markets. You can find the details of these companies – ticker symbols and all – in **my brand-new special broadcast, free of charge.** Regards, Eric Fry Editor, ***Smart Money*** ### Related Stocks - [NVDA.US - NVIDIA](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/NVDA.US.md) ## Related News & Research | Title | Description | URL | |-------|-------------|-----| | 索羅斯逆市加碼微軟及 Nvidia 等科企 新買入黃金股 清倉 4 隻股份 | 索羅斯基金管理公司在 2022 年第四季度加大對微軟、英偉達和蘋果等大型科技股的投資，同時增持黃金股以對衝風險。基金還增持了 Atlassian、Salesforce 和 Uber 等軟體公司股票，但大幅減持了 Snowflake 和 Ci | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/275990619.md) | | 美國 1 月 CPI 來襲！標普 500、輝達、德國 DAX 指數、澳元/美元技術分析 | 美國勞工統計局將於 2 月 13 日發布 1 月消費者價格指數（CPI），預計服務價格漲幅放緩將導致通脹降温，但核心通脹率可能上升。1 月非農就業數據強勁，促使市場對美聯儲降息次數的預期減少。標普 500 指數在 2 月 12 日下跌 1. | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/275974381.md) | | 消息人士表示，微星科技第一季度的收入可能會保持平穩 | 微星科技預計第一季度收入將保持平穩，超出之前預期的下降。這一穩定性歸因於價格上漲、成本控制以及來自中國的強勁需求。由於內存芯片成本上升，公司將價格提高了約 10%，並且在 RTX 50 系列顯卡上面臨供應限制。儘管每月銷售額創下新高，達到 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/275781303.md) | | 軟件股遭遇 2010 年來最大做空潮，高盛驚呼：市場 “無處可藏”！ | 十年最猛烈做空潮席捲美國軟件股，摩根士丹利數據顯示空頭規模創 2010 年以來新高，市場陷入 “先賣後問” 的恐慌。AI 取代白領的擔憂引發行業震盪，防禦性板塊加速跑贏，科技七巨頭（Mag 7）亦顯頹勢。高盛交易主管 Callahan 表示 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/275859482.md) | | 反超三星、利潤率蓋過台積電：SK 海力士是如何問鼎 AI 存儲領域 “隱形霸主” 的？ | SK 海力士過去 12 個月市值飆升 340%，已從債權人控制的 “殭屍公司” 逆襲為 AI 產業鏈定價者。其憑藉 HBM 先發優勢，在 AI 需求爆發的浪潮下，深度綁定英偉達與微軟，拿下全球過半 HBM 份額；市佔率超越三星，利潤率超越台 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/275576275.md) | --- > **Disclaimer**: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.