I'm LongbridgeAI, I can summarize articles.ZheShang Securities released a research report indicating that the capital expenditures (Capex) of overseas major companies have been significantly revised upward, creating a positive cycle of investment and growth in the AI industry, which is accelerating the expansion of the liquid cooling market. The demand for liquid cooling from NVIDIA GPUs and cloud vendors' self-developed ASIC chips has significantly increased, and it is expected that the liquid cooling market size will reach 35.4 billion, 71.6 billion, and 108.2 billion yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. It is recommended to pay attention to related targets such as Envicool, Shenling, and COTRAN
According to Zhitong Finance APP, Zhejiang Merchants Securities released a research report stating that the Capex of overseas major manufacturers in Q2 2025 has been significantly revised upward, and the "investment-growth-reinvestment" positive cycle logic of the AI industry continues to strengthen. The product form of whole cabinet drives the accelerated penetration rate of liquid cooling, with significant demand for liquid cooling from NVIDIA GPUs and self-developed ASIC chips from major cloud manufacturers, and the overseas liquid cooling market is expected to accelerate its growth. The rapid growth of the liquid cooling market is jointly driven by NVIDIA GPUs and self-developed ASIC chips from cloud manufacturers, with the market size for liquid cooling expected to be approximately 35.4 billion, 71.6 billion, and 108.2 billion yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with the market space expected to exceed 100 billion yuan in 2027. In terms of targets, it is recommended to pay attention to Envicool (002837.SZ), Shenling (301018.SZ), and COTRAN (300731.SZ).
The main viewpoints of Zhejiang Merchants Securities are as follows:
Significant upward revision of overseas major manufacturers' Capex, AI continues to be highly prosperous
The "investment-growth-reinvestment" positive cycle logic of the AI industry continues to strengthen. Financial reports from overseas CSP manufacturers show that the growth of AI cloud business is accelerating, while Capex investment has greatly exceeded expectations, and the Capex expectations for 2025/2026 have been revised upward. In Q2 2025, the total capital expenditure of Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Amazon reached 96.1 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 66%.
Vertiv's performance and orders in Q2 2025 remain strong, and the full-year guidance has been raised again. In Q2 2025, Vertiv's revenue was 2.638 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 35%, exceeding market consensus expectations by 12%, mainly driven by strong demand from data centers and an increase in market share; the adjusted EPS was 0.95 USD, 14% higher than consensus expectations. In Q2 2025, organic orders increased by 15% year-on-year and 11% quarter-on-quarter, with organic orders growing by 11% year-on-year over the past 12 months (TTM), and backlogged orders reached 8.5 billion USD, with an order-to-shipment ratio of about 1.2x, reflecting sustained strong market demand. The revenue year-on-year growth rate guidance for 2025 is centered at +24%, up from +18% previously; the adjusted operating profit margin guidance is centered at 20%, with a long-term target of reaching an adjusted operating profit margin of 25% by 2029.
Benefiting from the power consumption improvement of GPU/ASIC chips, the penetration rate of liquid cooling is accelerating
The product form of whole cabinets drives the accelerated penetration rate of liquid cooling, with NVIDIA's GB200/GB300 NVL72 being a liquid-cooled cabinet; Meta's MTIA T-V1 chip will adopt liquid cooling for heat dissipation, and T-V2 will introduce a 170kW ultra-high power rack; Microsoft pointed out in the Q2 2025 earnings call that all of the company's data centers in various regions currently support liquid cooling; Google introduced liquid cooling starting from the third-generation TPU in 2018. The demand for liquid cooling from NVIDIA GPUs and self-developed ASIC chips from major cloud manufacturers is significant, and the overseas liquid cooling market is expected to accelerate its growth.
It is estimated that the combination of NVIDIA GPUs and self-developed ASICs from cloud manufacturers will drive the liquid cooling market to double growth next year, with the market space expected to exceed 100 billion yuan in 2027 (core assumptions and calculation process are as follows)
NVIDIA B series chips:
According to ZEEKR 1+1, it is estimated that the total shipment of AI server racks will reach 25,000-30,000 units in 2025, taking the median shipment volume of 28,000 racks, with each GB200 NVL72 equipped with 72 B200 chips, corresponding to a shipment volume of approximately 2 million B200 chips Assuming that the shipment volume of AI server racks (including GB200 NVL72 and GB300 NVL72) will reach 70,000 units in 2026, corresponding to a shipment volume of approximately 5 million B200/B300 units.
Since NVIDIA has not yet announced the specific parameters of the next-generation Rubin series products, we will still use the shipment volume of B200/B300 to forecast the market situation in 2027. Based on NVIDIA's data center business revenue of $115.2 billion in 2024, AMD's prediction that the AI chip market will reach $500 billion by 2028, and previous forecasts that NVIDIA's GPU market share will be approximately 73% in 2028, we can derive that NVIDIA's GPU compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2024 to 2028 is about 33%. Assuming that NVIDIA's data center revenue growth rate in 2027 is 33% year-on-year, it is estimated that NVIDIA's AI chip shipment volume in 2027 will be approximately 7 million units, corresponding to 100,000 cabinets (still calculated based on a single cabinet containing 72 chips).
According to ZEEKR 1+1, the liquid cooling value per rack is approximately $78,820, which translates to an average liquid cooling value of about $1,095 per B200/B300 chip.
Based on the above assumptions, it is estimated that the liquid cooling demand brought by NVIDIA's B series from 2025 to 2027 will be approximately $2.2 billion, $5.5 billion, and $7.7 billion, respectively, or about 15.9 billion, 39.5 billion, and 55.3 billion RMB.
ASIC Chips:
As mentioned earlier, cloud vendors are actively promoting liquid cooling solutions. Assuming that ASIC chips adopt a rack architecture similar to NVL72 and all use liquid cooling for heat dissipation.
It is expected that the shipment volume of Google's TPU will reach 1.5 to 2 million units by 2025, and Amazon's AWS Trainium2 ASIC will be about 1.4 to 1.5 million units. The combined shipment volume of Google's and AWS's AI TPU/ASIC has reached 40-60% of NVIDIA's AI GPU shipment volume. As Meta begins large-scale deployment of self-developed ASIC solutions from 2026 and Microsoft from 2027, the total shipment volume of ASICs is expected to surpass NVIDIA's GPUs at some point in 2026. It was previously inferred that the ASIC market size in 2024 is approximately $12.2 billion. Combining predictions from Broadcom and Marvel, the ASIC chip market size is expected to be $60-90 billion by 2027, with a CAGR of 65% from 2024 to 2027. Assuming conservatively that the shipment volume of ASIC chips in 2025 is about 3 million units, with year-on-year growth rates of 65% for 2026 and 2027, it is estimated that the shipment volumes of ASIC chips in 2026 and 2027 will be approximately 4.95 million and 8.17 million units, respectively.
Currently, the thermal design power of Google's and Microsoft's ASIC chips is lower than that of B200. Google's latest generation TPU v7p has a power consumption of 959W, and Microsoft's latest ASIC chip has a power consumption of 700W per single card. Assuming the average power consumption of ASIC chips per card is 850W, which is about 85% of the 1,000W power consumption of a B200 single card, it is assumed that the corresponding liquid cooling value per ASIC chip is approximately 85% of the $1,095 liquid cooling value of B200/B300, which is about $900 According to the above assumptions, the estimated liquid cooling demand for 2025-2027 is expected to be approximately USD 2.7 billion / 4.5 billion / 7.4 billion, or about RMB 19.5 billion / 32.1 billion / 53 billion.
In summary, NVIDIA GPUs and cloud manufacturers' self-developed ASIC chips are jointly driving the rapid growth of the liquid cooling market, with the market size for liquid cooling in 2025-2027 expected to be approximately RMB 35.4 billion / 71.6 billion / 108.2 billion, with the market expected to exceed RMB 100 billion by 2027.
Risk Warning
Data estimation deviations; industry development not meeting expectations; market competition intensifying beyond expectations; risks from macroeconomic environment and policy changes, etc