According to the report released by China International Capital Corporation (CICC), based on Baichuan Yinfeng data, the production of refrigerants R32/R134a/R125 in the first half of 2025 was 138,000 tons, 76,000 tons, and 57,000 tons respectively, accounting for approximately 49%/37%/34% of the annual quota. As the new air conditioning season approaches at the end of August, although air conditioning production has declined since July, terminal consumption continues to rise. Combined with the current sales situation, it is expected that production levels will remain high after entering the new cooling season, and demand for refrigerants is likely to be boosted. The policy expectations for 2025 and 2026 are stable, and the price of refrigerants is expected to rise even in the off-season. Demand for air conditioning in the new cooling season is expected to remain high, and market expectations are likely to gradually improve, leading to a potential recovery in sector valuations.
<h2>CICC's main viewpoints are as follows:</h2>
Stable Policy Expectations for Refrigerants
According to Baichuan Yinfeng data, the production of refrigerants R32/R134a/R125 in the first half of 2025 was 138,000 tons, 76,000 tons, and 57,000 tons respectively, accounting for approximately 49%/37%/34% of the annual quota; the export volumes for R32/R134a were 40,000 tons and 50,000 tons respectively, accounting for about 41%/39% of the annual export quota. The supply-demand environment for refrigerants in 2025 is relatively balanced, with some varieties being relatively abundant, reducing the necessity to increase quotas. It is expected that the refrigerant quota policy will remain stable in mid-2025 and 2026.
Refrigerant Prices Remain Strong in the Off-Season
Despite the year-on-year decline in air conditioning production and output since July, refrigerant prices continue to rise. According to data from Fluorine Online, the latest corporate quotation for R32 has approached 60,000 yuan/ton. After the third-generation refrigerants entered the quota period, pricing power has shifted from the demand side to the supply side, and the seasonal decline in air conditioning demand does not dominate the price trend of refrigerants. From overseas prices, the price of R32 in Europe approached 20,000 euros/ton in the fourth quarter of 2024, indicating that there is still relatively ample upward space for refrigerant prices in China, and the &#34;ceiling&#34; for refrigerant prices is still far off.
High Demand for Refrigerants Expected in the New Cooling Season
As the new air conditioning season approaches at the end of August 2025, although air conditioning production has declined since July, terminal consumption continues to rise. According to publicly available data from Aowei Cloud Network, by mid-July, the retail sales of the offline system in the domestic air conditioning market increased by 19.63% year-on-year, with a corresponding retail volume growth of 16.15%; during the same period, the retail sales of air conditioning products on online platforms increased by 26.17% year-on-year, with retail volume growth reaching 30.28%. Particularly in markets such as Northeast and Northwest China, there have been recent stockouts, and sales momentum in East and Central China is also optimistic. Combined with the current sales situation, it is expected that production levels will remain high after entering the new cooling season, and demand for refrigerants is likely to be boosted.
Investment Recommendations
After the performance release of refrigerant companies in the first half of 2025, sector valuations have declined. On one hand, there are concerns about whether the policy side can maintain stability in mid-2025 due to the loosening of refrigerant policies in mid-2024; on the other hand, the negative shift in air conditioning output data has raised market concerns about subsequent demand for refrigerants.
CICC believes that policy expectations for mid-2025 and 2026 are stable, the price of refrigerants will continue to rise even in the off-season, demand for air conditioning in the new cooling season is expected to remain high, market expectations are likely to gradually improve, and sector valuations are likely to recover. Related companies in the industrial chain include ZJJH (600160.SH) and DONGYUE GROUP (00189)
HCSC (600378.SH), Dongyangguang (600673.SH) (considering the valuation increase brought by the liquid cooling and robotics sectors, the target price is raised by 35% to 16.88 yuan), Sanmei (603379.SH), Yonghe (605020.SH), etc.
Risk Factors
Significant adjustments in refrigerant policies, a substantial decline in air conditioning demand

00189

600160

603379

600378

CICC released a research report stating that although air conditioner production has declined since July, terminal consumption continues to rise, and it is expected that the demand for refrigerants in the new cooling year will remain high. The production of refrigerants R32/R134a/R125 in 2025 is expected to be 138,000 tons, 76,000 tons, and 57,000 tons respectively, with market expectations gradually improving, and refrigerant prices still having room for increase during the off-season. The policy side is expected to remain stable, and the supply-demand environment for refrigerants is relatively balanced

Zhitong

DONGYUE GROUP

ZJJH

Sanmei

HCSC

CICC: Air conditioner sales grow significantly, new refrigerant demand in the new cooling year is expected to remain high