HuaChuang Securities: 24 National Standards Reshape Industry Landscape, Strengthening Competitive Advantages of Electric Two-Wheeled Vehicle Leaders

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Huachuang Securities released a research report stating that leading companies are expected to accelerate their market share growth with the support of the new national standards, achieving growth faster than the industry. It is recommended to pay attention to the electric two-wheeler industry leaders YADEA (01585) and AIMA Technology (603529.SH). In addition, the proportion of mid-to-high-end electric two-wheelers is continuously increasing, and it is suggested to focus on Ninebot (689009.SH), as the company's electric two-wheeler channels continue to expand, gradually reflecting scale effects and expected to continuously contribute to profit growth. Recently, the rapid growth of the ZEEKR brand is expected to build the company's third business growth curve, and it is recommended to pay attention to Chunjun Power (603129.SH).

The main points of Huachuang Securities are as follows:

Impact of the 24 New National Standards: Accelerating Industry Restructuring and Driving Product Upgrades

1. Increased safety technical specifications and production thresholds for enterprises. The 24 national standards, based on strengthening safety and anti-tampering details (plastic quality ratio ≤ 5.5%, controller/battery mutual recognition coordination), add requirements for Beidou positioning and dynamic safety monitoring, while clarifying that enterprises should have the capability to manufacture and test core components such as frames and motors.

2. The industry concentration is expected to further increase. After the implementation of the 18 national standards, the costs of single vehicle certification, environmental protection taxes, and patent protection have increased, leading to increased cost pressure on small and medium-sized enterprises, while the scale effects of leading companies have been strengthened. The industry CR2 (YADEA + AIMA) market share increased from 30% (2018) to 52% (2021). The 24 national standards further promote the increase in industry thresholds, and the firm expects that small and medium-sized enterprises will accelerate their exit.

3. New battery technologies may receive more attention. After the 18 national standards, there were many illegal modifications, while the 24 national standards impose stricter anti-tampering restrictions. To meet consumers' dual demands for long endurance and comfort, new lightweight batteries such as sodium batteries are expected to be more popular in the market under strict weight limitations.

Industry Outlook: The industry is expected to see simultaneous increases in volume and price, with market share concentrating on leading brands

1. Domestic scale is steadily increasing, while overseas potential remains to be tapped. Currently, the penetration rate of electric bicycles in China is relatively low (70 units per 100 households). Considering that there are no better alternative transportation tools in the short to medium-distance commuting field, if the future ownership rate reaches 100 units per 100 households, the domestic market scale is expected to reach 71.85 million units, representing a 69% increase compared to 2024 (approximately 42.51 million units). Additionally, there is significant potential in overseas markets, with approximately 720 million households in the Asia-Pacific region (excluding China). If the average ownership reaches 0.6/0.8/1.0 units per household, it corresponds to stable annual sales of 48 million/64 million/80 million units.

2. Product function upgrades drive average price increases. The improvements in the appearance design and functional experience of electric two-wheelers have driven the industry average price to continue rising (according to Jiuqian data, the average price on Tmall/JD in 2024 has increased by 70%/26% compared to 2019). The 24 national standards are expected to further promote quality upgrades, and the industry average price is expected to maintain an upward trend.

3. Vertical integration of the supply chain reduces costs, and channels are expected to concentrate on leading brands. In recent years, leading companies have begun to enhance the level of vertical integration in their supply chains, gradually achieving self-manufacturing of key components such as batteries and motors, which is expected to optimize costs and create certain competitive barriers. From the perspective of terminal stores, leading brands have higher single-store output. Under the background of the new national standards, the product advantages of leading companies will be further amplified, and channel concentration is expected to accelerate

4. Continuous observation is needed on the impact of new entrants like Chunfeng on the existing landscape. Although new brands like ZEEKR have not formed unique differentiated competitive advantages in terms of products and have a significant gap in store numbers compared to existing players, their recent development momentum has been rapid. ZEEKR's sales are expected to exceed 100,000 in 2024. Considering that the mid-to-high-end market is still in a rapid expansion phase, this institution believes it is necessary to continuously observe the efforts and investments of new entrants.

Operational Comparison: Leading Companies' Advantages Expand, Market Value Still Has Room for Improvement

The operational performance of electric two-wheeler companies varies significantly. In terms of profitability, since 2021, the profit margins of YADEA/AIMA/Ninebot have continued to widen the gap with manufacturers like Xinri and Luyuan. In 2024, the net profit margin of leading brands is about 9%, while second-tier brands generally fall below 3%. Additionally, leading companies will also have a significant advantage in capacity expansion. Although second-tier two-wheeler companies have good cash flow and face little short-term survival pressure, this institution believes that in the long term, the ROE of second-tier and small-to-medium enterprises may gradually decline, and the investment cost-effectiveness may weaken. Under a terminal thinking approach, this institution estimates that the domestic electric two-wheeler industry could accommodate a market value space of approximately 115.5 billion yuan (excluding overseas business expansion). Assuming a 40% market share for the leading brand, the corresponding market value space would be about 46.2 billion yuan, which represents a 17%/49% space compared to the market values of YADEA and AIMA on August 11, 2025.

Risk Warning: Policy effects may be less than expected, industry demand may be below expectations, and market competition may intensify