KaiYuan Securities: Storage support drives pig prices to bottom out and rebound; high prosperity of pet food exports and domestic consumption continues

According to Zhitong Finance APP, Kaiyuan Securities released a research report stating that on August 21, the National Development and Reform Commission pointed out that the national average pig-to-grain price ratio fell below 6:1, and a central frozen pork reserve will be conducted soon. Huashu Network subsequently announced that it will unidirectionally store 10,000 tons of pork on August 25 and rotate store 19,000 tons of pork from August 26 to 29. The storage has boosted the sentiment for pig prices to bottom out, combined with previous pandemic factors and the overselling of live pigs due to large pig sales, leading to a reduction in supply and improvement in consumption at the end of the month and the beginning of the next month, gradually initiating a new round of price increases for pigs. On the other hand, in July, China's pet food export value increased significantly month-on-month, and the domestic pet consumption boom continued at the Asia Pet Expo, with consumption upgrades and tariff barriers reinforcing the logic of domestic pet brands rising.

The main viewpoints of Kaiyuan Securities are as follows:

Storage boosts pig prices to bottom out and rebound

According to Yongyi Consulting, as of August 22, 2025, the national average price of live pigs was 13.73 yuan/kg, a week-on-week increase of 0.04 yuan/kg, and a year-on-year decrease of 6.51 yuan/kg. As of August 21, 2025, the average weight of live pigs sold in the Yongyi sample was 127.98 kg/head, a week-on-week increase of 0.16 kg/head, and a year-on-year increase of 1.25 kg/head. The premium for 150 kg fat pigs over 120 kg standard pigs was 0.36 yuan/kg (week-on-week increase of 0.08 yuan/kg). From August 10 to 20, 2025, the proportion of secondary breeding in actual sales slightly increased to 1.19%, a month-on-month increase of 0.37 percentage points, and a year-on-year decrease of 1.96 percentage points, with a utilization rate of 46.8% for secondary breeding pens, a month-on-month decrease of 1.9 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 10.4 percentage points.

On August 21, the National Development and Reform Commission pointed out that the national average pig-to-grain price ratio fell below 6:1, and a central frozen pork reserve will be conducted soon. Huashu Network subsequently announced that it will unidirectionally store 10,000 tons of pork on August 25 and rotate store 19,000 tons of pork from August 26 to 29. The storage has boosted the sentiment for pig prices to bottom out, combined with previous pandemic factors and the overselling of live pigs due to large pig sales, leading to a reduction in supply and improvement in consumption at the end of the month and the beginning of the next month, gradually initiating a new round of price increases for pigs.

Pet food export value increased significantly month-on-month, and the domestic pet consumption boom continued at the Asia Pet Expo

According to the General Administration of Customs, in July 2025, China's pet food export value was USD 130 million, a year-on-year decrease of 3.85%, and a month-on-month increase of 13.35%, with an export price of USD 3.92/kg, slightly down month-on-month, and an export volume of 33,100 tons, a month-on-month increase of 14.82%. Domestically, the 27th Asia Pet Expo was held from August 20 to 24, and Douyin e-commerce simultaneously launched the "Cute Master, Please Get Ready" campaign. According to Douyin's report on the Asia Pet Expo, as of 6 PM on August 20, 2025, the GMV of Petty Co., Ltd.'s Jueyan exceeded 2 million, a year-on-year increase of 50%, with main food sales nearing 1 million yuan, indicating a continued high boom in domestic pet food consumption.

Regarding the targets

The dual driving force of fundamentals and policies will lead to a month-on-month increase in pig prices in the second half of 2025, with marginal improvements in the investment logic for live pigs. Recommended: Muyuan (002714.SZ), WENS (300498.SZ), Juxing Agriculture and Animal Husbandry (603477.SH), Huadong (002840.SZ), and Tiankang Biological (002100.SZ), etc The domestic market of the feed sector benefits from the post-cycle of poultry and livestock, with strong overseas demand supporting prices. Recommendations: HAID GROUP (002311.SZ), New Hope (000876.SZ), etc.

With consumption upgrades and tariff barriers, the logic of domestic pet products rising continues to strengthen. Recommendations: GAMBOL PET (301498.SZ), Zhongchong Co., Ltd. (002891.SZ), Petty Co., Ltd. (300673.SZ).

Price Tracking This Week (8.18-8.22): Prices of agricultural products such as beef have increased compared to the previous week

On August 22, the national average price of external three-yuan live pigs was 13.73 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg from last week; the average price of piglets was 27.78 yuan/kg, down 1.09 yuan/kg from last week; the average price of white strip meat was 17.94 yuan/kg, down 0.11 yuan/kg from last week. On August 22, the pig feed price ratio was 4.1:1. The profit per head for self-breeding and self-raising was 33.95 yuan/head, up 5.10 yuan/head compared to the previous period; the profit per head for purchased piglets was -151.8 yuan/head, up 5.25 yuan/head compared to the previous period.

Risk Warning

Macroeconomic downturn, continued weak consumption, uncertainties related to animal diseases, etc