Zhongtai Securities: Scarce inflation segment, gearbox industry pattern is favorable with good profitability

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Zhongtai Securities released a research report stating that wind turbine gearboxes are one of the key components of wind power generation equipment, with a high value proportion and superior profitability. With the continuous increase in offshore wind power, the rising proportion of doubly-fed and semi-direct drive models, and the increase in market share, there is potential for incremental elasticity to be released. It is recommended to focus on the core leading companies in the gearbox industry chain: WEILI (300904.SZ), Delijia, and Guangda Special Materials (688186.SH), among others. The main points of Zhongtai Securities are as follows: Wind turbine main gearboxes have inflation attributes, and global demand space is rapidly growing (1) The power of a single unit is increasing, and the value amount is significantly rising. Taking the gearbox procurement by United Power in 2024 as an example, the unit price of the 5.XMW model is 1.5 million yuan/unit (including tax), and for every 1MW increase in power, the price rises by 100,000 to 200,000 yuan/unit. (2) The increase in the proportion of doubly-fed/semi-direct drive models drives the demand for gearboxes. The doubly-fed route for onshore wind power has a greater cost advantage and is rapidly increasing in penetration; the semi-direct drive route for offshore wind power combines the advantages of both doubly-fed and direct drive, offering better cost performance, and its proportion is expected to rise quickly. (3) The global offshore wind power is ramping up, further driving the increase in gearbox demand. (4) It is estimated that by 2026, the global demand for wind turbine main gearboxes will reach 26,000 units, corresponding to a global market space of 41.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22%. Wind turbine main gearboxes have high technical barriers, and the industry is relatively concentrated (1) One of the most technically challenging links in wind turbine components. With the trend of larger sizes, the output power is high, and it is challenging to increase torque without significantly increasing the size and weight of the gearbox; designs need to adapt to complex working conditions, and processing and assembly precision requirements are high; gearboxes are a major source of wind turbine failures, and the costs of replacement and maintenance are high. (2) Good structure + superior profitability. In 2024, the global market CR4 for wind turbine main gearboxes exceeds 70%, with NGC, WEILI, Delijia, and ZF accounting for 34%/17%/10.4%/10.0%, respectively; in the domestic market, NGC occupies a significant share, with Delijia's market share reaching 16%. The overall structure is favorable, and profitability is good, with Delijia's gross profit margin around 22-25%. Risk Warning: Wind power demand may fall short of expectations; industry competition may intensify; risks of untimely data updates; risks of third-party data distortion; risks of calculation deviations, etc