Cathay Securities: The peak season for real estate sales begins in September; pay attention to the implementation of policies

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Guotai Junan has released a research report stating that it maintains an "overweight" rating for the real estate industry. Considering that September marks the traditional peak marketing season, the firm believes that it is highly likely that real estate companies will accelerate the pace of launching new projects and increase discount efforts; in addition, core first-tier cities represented by Beijing and Shanghai have already introduced favorable policies such as relaxing purchase restrictions, and Shenzhen is expected to accelerate its follow-up. As the real estate industry enters the off-season, and considering the high base period entering in Q4, it is recommended to pay attention to the impact of overseas interest rate cuts in September/domestic macro monetary policy opening up space, as well as the implementation of policies related to urban renewal and land acquisition. Guotai Junan's main points are as follows: In August 2025, the year-on-year decline in monthly sales of the top 100 real estate companies expanded According to the sales performance ranking data released by CRIC for August 2025, the sales amount of the top 100 real estate companies reached 2,070.86 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.1% compared to the same period in 2024, with the decline expanding by 0.5 percentage points compared to July 2025; the equity amount reached 1,619.70 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.4% compared to the same period in 2024, with the decline expanding by 0.9 percentage points compared to July 2025, and the equity ratio was 78%. The sales amount of the top 50 real estate companies reached 1,798.48 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.3% compared to the same period in 2024, with the decline narrowing by 0.03 percentage points compared to July 2025; the equity amount reached 1,375.89 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.6% compared to the same period in 2024, with the decline expanding by 0.3 percentage points compared to July 2025, and the equity ratio was 77%. Comparing the sales thresholds for the top 100 real estate companies in August 2024 and 2025, the sales threshold for the top 1-10 companies decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, from 58.6 billion yuan to 56.1 billion yuan, with the smallest decline; the threshold for the top 51-100 companies saw the largest decline, from 4.6 billion yuan to 3.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.9%. In August 2025, nearly 30% of the top 100 real estate companies achieved year-on-year positive sales growth in a single month In terms of single-month sales amounts for August 2025, the highest was Greentown China at 19.5 billion yuan, followed by China Merchants Shekou at 18.5 billion yuan, with China Resources Land, Poly Development, and China Overseas Development achieving sales between 11.9 billion and 17.8 billion yuan, and Jianfa International Group, China Jinmao, and Vanke A between 7.6 billion and 8.4 billion yuan. In terms of single-month sales growth rates for August 2025, 12 of the top 50 real estate companies achieved year-on-year positive growth. Among them, the highest year-on-year growth rate was for Bangtai Group at 215.5%, followed by Lianfa Group at 158.8%. On the decline list, companies such as China Communications Real Estate and Wuhan Urban Construction saw declines exceeding -55%. From January to August 2025, compared to the same period in 2024, 15 of the top 50 real estate companies achieved positive growth. Among them, Seazen Holdings had a year-on-year negative growth of over -50%. Risk Warning Poor sales and overall industry downturn risks