According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Minsheng Securities released a research report stating that from the demand side, since the official parity began in 2021, direct-drive wind turbine companies represented by Goldwind, DONGFANG ELEC, and Harbin Electric have gradually shifted from direct-drive without gearboxes to semi-direct drive or doubly-fed routes that require gearboxes. By the 2024 Wind Energy Exhibition, there will basically be no direct-drive models among the new models. According to the National Energy Research Institute's calculations, the global wind turbine gearbox market size will reach USD 5.941 billion in 2024, and it is expected to grow to USD 7.824 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 4.70%. From the supply side, the gearbox segment has high barriers to entry and a significant proportion of value, with a relatively stable competitive landscape.
<h2>Minsheng Securities' main viewpoints are as follows:</h2>
Demand Side: Domestic land and sea bidding are both thriving, land wind prices are stabilizing
In 2024, the cumulative public bidding capacity for wind turbines nationwide is approximately 164.1 GW, a year-on-year increase of 90%, of which the public bidding capacity for land wind is 152.8 GW, a year-on-year increase of 97%, and the public bidding capacity for offshore wind is 11.3 GW, a year-on-year increase of 27%. From January to June 2025, the newly added public bidding for wind turbines nationwide is 71.9 GW, a year-on-year increase of 8.8%, of which land wind accounts for 66.9 GW and offshore wind accounts for 5.0 GW. From the price perspective, in June 2025, the average bidding price for wind turbine manufacturers in the entire market is RMB 1,616 per kilowatt, a year-on-year increase of approximately 10%.
Technological route adjustments under the background of large-scale cost reduction lead to structural demand growth for gearboxes. Since the official parity began in 2021, direct-drive wind turbine companies represented by Goldwind, DONGFANG ELEC, and Harbin Electric have gradually shifted from direct-drive without gearboxes to semi-direct drive or doubly-fed routes that require gearboxes. By the 2024 Wind Energy Exhibition, there will basically be no direct-drive models among the new models. According to the National Energy Research Institute's calculations, the global wind turbine gearbox market size will reach USD 5.941 billion in 2024, and it is expected to grow to USD 7.824 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 4.70%.
Supply Side: Core components of wind turbines, high industry concentration
High industry barriers: 1) Technical barriers: Wind turbine main gearbox products must have the ability to stably transmit power under variable loads and instantaneous strong impact loads to adapt to complex working environments, while meeting the lifespan requirements of 20 to 25 years. 2) Capital and scale barriers: If high-end specialized equipment with a high configuration unit price is included, such as efficient gear hobbing machines, precision gear grinding machines, machining centers, various heat treatment equipment, precision measurement equipment, and large load testing platforms, fixed asset expenditures are significant. 3) Verification barriers: Wind turbine main gearbox companies must undergo a verification period of 2-3 years to enter the qualified supplier list of wind turbine manufacturers, and the time and cost required for wind turbine manufacturers to develop new suppliers are relatively high.
High industry concentration, larger size poses higher requirements for gearboxes. Currently, the market concentration of China's wind turbine gearbox industry is relatively high. According to QY Research statistics, in 2022 and 2023, the top four wind turbine gearbox manufacturers in global market share are dominated by NGC, Winergy, ZF, and Deli Jia, with the industry's CR4 reaching 79% in 2023
Investment Advice
From the demand side, wind power gearboxes may benefit from the overall growth in industry demand and structural demand growth brought about by adjustments in technology routes; from the supply side, the gearbox segment has high barriers to entry and a relatively large share of value, with a stable competitive landscape. It is recommended to focus on related companies: Weili Transmission (300904.SZ), GDTC (688186.SH), Delijia, etc.
Risk Warning
Intensified industry competition, downstream wind power demand may be lower than expected, etc

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Minsheng Securities released a research report indicating that the structural demand for wind turbine gearboxes will increase due to the growth in overall industry demand and adjustments in technological routes. It is expected that the global wind turbine gearbox market size will reach USD 5.941 billion in 2024 and increase to USD 7.824 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 4.70%. The domestic wind turbine bidding capacity has significantly increased, with both onshore and offshore wind bidding rising notably, and prices stabilizing. Against the backdrop of large-scale cost reduction, adjustments in technological routes have led to a continuous growth in gearbox demand

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DONGFANG ELEC

Goldwind

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GDTC

Minsheng Securities: The background of large-scale cost reduction brings structural demand growth for wind power gearboxes