---
title: "Goldman Sachs macro trader Paul Chavonne warned investors to pay attention to the potential threat o"
description: "Goldman Sachs macro trader Paul Chavonne warned investors to pay attention to the potential threat of economic data to the stock market's rise, particularly employment market data. He pointed out that"
type: "news"
locale: "en"
url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/256776761.md"
published_at: "2025-09-10T14:41:30.000Z"
---

# Goldman Sachs macro trader Paul Chavonne warned investors to pay attention to the potential threat o

> Goldman Sachs macro trader Paul Chavonne warned investors to pay attention to the potential threat of economic data to the stock market's rise, particularly employment market data. He pointed out that although the unemployment rate is low, the probability of unemployed workers finding reemployment has hit a record low of only 45%. The S&P 500 has reached new highs, but factors such as the labor market and fiscal spending have caused market caution. Chavonne believes that the market is underpricing the risk of recession and reminds investors not to overlook potential cracks

A macro trader at Goldman Sachs stated that investors need to remain vigilant over the next 12 months to identify which economic data may pose a threat to this round of record stock market gains. Paul Chavone from the firm pointed out that employment market data will play a key role in warning about economic cracks. He cited data from the New York Federal Reserve, which shows that although the probability of unemployment remains low, the chance of unemployed workers finding new jobs is only 45%, the lowest valuation on record. The S&P 500 index reached a new all-time high on Wednesday. However, the U.S. labor market, fiscal spending, and the market's potentially overly optimistic sentiment regarding artificial intelligence have raised caution among some seasoned market participants. Chavone previously stated that the market is underpricing recession risks. "I won't short the bubble too early, but I also won't ignore the cracks," he wrote

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> **Disclaimer**: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.