--- title: "Gary Black Flags Two Key Upside Triggers For TSLA Stock Despite Valuation Concerns" description: "Prominent investor Gary Black has identified two potential positive catalysts for Tesla Inc. (TSLA) stock despite his valuation concerns. He highlights Q3 deliveries, estimated at 470K, and the potent" type: "news" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/news/257130542.md" published_at: "2025-09-12T13:30:57.000Z" --- # Gary Black Flags Two Key Upside Triggers For TSLA Stock Despite Valuation Concerns > Prominent investor Gary Black has identified two potential positive catalysts for Tesla Inc. (TSLA) stock despite his valuation concerns. He highlights Q3 deliveries, estimated at 470K, and the potential removal of safety monitors in robotaxis as key triggers. However, Tesla faces challenges with a declining U.S. EV market share below 40% and skepticism about achieving full autonomy. Black also notes that the launch of a more affordable Model Y may not significantly expand Tesla's market unless it broadens the total addressable market. Prominent investor and a well-known **Tesla Inc.** TSLA critic, **Gary Black**, has highlighted two potential positive catalysts for the company’s stock despite his valuation concerns. ## **Tesla Q3 Deliveries, Robotaxi Progress May Be Positive** On a post on X, Black expressed his cautious stance on Tesla’s valuation but pointed out two potential positive catalysts for the company’s stock in the near future. He mentioned the third-quarter deliveries and the potential removal of safety monitors in Tesla’s robotaxis as the two catalysts. *Check out the current price of TSLA stock here.* As a first catalyst, the analyst stated that Tesla’s Q3 deliveries (estimated at 470K vs. a consensus of 432K) should surge ahead of the $7,500 EV credit expiring on September 30, likely pulling volume from Q4. Secondly, he stated that CEO Elon Musk's prediction that safety monitors will be removed from robotaxis in Austin and the Bay Area by year-end could signal confidence in autonomous tech and pave the way for market expansion in 2026. Black calls this a “material positive catalyst.” He feels this is achievable because, as per his estimates, Tesla operates no more than 150 robotaxis across the two test markets, all of which can be monitored remotely. Black also mentioned that the launch of a more affordable Model Y in the fourth quarter post the expiry of $7,500 EV credit, might not necessarily be a positive catalyst for Tesla unless it significantly expands the company’s total addressable market (TAM). ## **Declining EV Market Share, Autonomy Concerns Cloud Tesla** Black’s cautious approach to Tesla’s valuation comes at a time when the company is facing challenges in the EV market. Earlier this month, it was reported that Tesla’s U.S. EV market share had dipped below 40% for the first time since 2017, indicating a decline in the company’s sales and market dominance. Moreover, Tesla’s ability to achieve Level 4 and Level 5 autonomy has been questioned by industry experts, including **Ross Gerber**, who believes that hardware issues need to be addressed before Tesla can achieve full autonomy. Speaking of valuation, Elon Musk stated that scaling FSD and Optimus are key to Tesla's Master Plan Part 4, predicting that Optimus will account for 80% of Tesla's future value. Meanwhile, Tesla has quietly changed the meaning of its Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology following the announcement of CEO **Elon Musk**‘s $1 trillion compensation package. Interestingly, one milestone for Tesla's pay package includes reaching 10 million active FSD subscriptions and deploying 1 million robotaxis, with a clear definition of what FSD entails. Benzinga's Edge Rankings place Tesla in the 62nd percentile for quality and the 86th percentile for momentum, reflecting its strong performance in both areas. Check the detailed report here. **READ NEXT:** - **Bernie Sanders Slams Tesla, Elon Musk Over ‘Grossly Immoral’ $1 Trillion Pay Package: ‘No Society Can Survive…’** *Image via Shutterstock* ### Related Stocks - [TSLA.US - Tesla](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLA.US.md) - [TSDD.US - GraniteShares 2x Short TSLA Daily ETF](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSDD.US.md) - [TSLL.US - Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X Shares](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLL.US.md) - [TSLQ.US - AXS TSLA Bear Daily ETF](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLQ.US.md) - [09366.HK - XI2CSOPTSLA-U](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/09366.HK.md) - [07766.HK - XL2CSOPTSLA](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/07766.HK.md) - [07366.HK - XI2CSOPTSLA](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/07366.HK.md) - [TSLR.US - GraniteShares 2x Long TSLA Daily ETF](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/TSLR.US.md) ## Related News & Research | Title | Description | URL | |-------|-------------|-----| | 马斯克情人节 “挥刀自宫”！为了一己私利，还是造福全人类？ | 马斯克宣布特斯拉将在情人节停售 FSD，改为 199 美元/月的会员模式，永久使用权需在此之前支付 8000 美元。特斯拉 AI5 芯片设计接近完成，算力提升 5 倍，目标是降低成本和功耗，支持未来的无人驾驶出租车和机器人。特斯拉还计划建设 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/275680196.md) | | 100GW，远超美国地面需求！特斯拉要扩的光伏产能，在为太空数据中心准备 | 大摩认为，特斯拉意在构建独立能源闭环。该产能主要服务于 “太空数据中心” 及保障供应链安全，而非单纯售卖组件。尽管面临数百亿美元资本开支，但 IRA 法案补贴和垂直整合优势有望带来千亿营收，并显著提升能源业务估值。 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/275545898.md) | | 马斯克的 “新大饼”：月球基地 | 马斯克以 “月球基地 Alpha” 新叙事替代火星计划，拟在月球制造并发射 AI 卫星以突破算力瓶颈。此举旨在整合 SpaceX 发射能力与 xAI 算力需求，打造差异化估值，虽技术壁垒极高，但为合并实体注入增长想象。 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/275864051.md) | | 特斯拉中国正在招聘自动驾驶测试工程师，以继续为全自动驾驶功能的推出做准备 | 特斯拉正在上海临港招聘一名自动驾驶测试工程师，这表明其在中国的完全自动驾驶（FSD）推出仍在持续准备中。该地区拥有上海超级工厂，并已获得在公共道路上进行高级驾驶测试的授权。特斯拉正在建立 FSD 部署所需的基础设施，预计其表现将优于人类驾驶 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/275882695.md) | | 科技 IPO 预期升温，但华尔街的主战场已转向债市？ | 尽管 SpaceX、OpenAI 等明星公司 IPO 前景备受关注，美国科技资本市场的重心已实质性转向债务融资。为支撑 AI 基建，全球科技债发行规模预计今年逼近 1 万亿美元，Alphabet、Oracle 等巨头密集发债，Meta、亚马 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/en/news/275770702.md) | --- > **Disclaimer**: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.